For moving averages and weighted moving averages‚ use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages‚ assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2‚ a value of 2 to the data for 20X3‚ and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ and time series regression. Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses 20X2 $5‚500‚000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 20X4
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The Body Shop International Case Study 1. The assumptions that were used to derive the numbers in this forecast were found by taking the averages of the historical data that was given for 1999-2001. Instead of using the assumptions that were given by The Body Shop‚ I thought it would be more practical to use the trends shown in the historical data since that is more relevant to what might happen‚ rather than what The Body Shop wants to see happen. Of course it is possible to take reducing
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t for 2014-Q3? (1 mark) (B) Suppose your OLS (ordinary least squares) estimates for the trend model are = 1.62 and = 3.55‚ and the sum of squared residuals (SSR) = ût2 = 725. Based on your estimated trend model‚ construct a point forecast and an interval forecast for the city’s government consumption expenditures in 2014-Q4. (9 marks) (C) It is calculated that = 928. Use the Durbin-Watson (DW) test to determine if there is (first-order) serial-correlation in the population errors {ut} at the 5%
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activities. – Specify accountability and measures for all activities. Marketing Planning Process 1)Mission 2) Corporate Objectives 3) Marketing Audit 4) SWOT Analysis 5) Marketing Assumptions 6) Marketing Objectives and Strategies 7) Forecast the Expected Results 8) Create Alternative Plan 9) Marketing Budget 10) Implementation and Evaluation
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have in order to help him to forecast for a particular style of men’s shirt that is a new catalog item. Fourth paragraph is to adjust the method that Mark Fasold used in the case to solve the number of items purchased. Lastly‚ the final paragraph is to adjust the improvement that L.L Bean should do in forecast process. L.L Bean uses different determinations and calculations to forecast and decide how many units of items to stock. The first thing is using the frozen forecast‚ which comes from the forecasting
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Telecoms and fixed-line Developing regulatory systems in the telecoms sector of the Middle East have improved conditions for competitors although in almost all markets the main competitors to fixed-line incumbents are mobile network operators. Cross-border co-operation is becoming increasingly evident with regulators working together to improve services for end users and operators working together to deploy two regional terrestrial cables. Broadband continues to be the focus of incumbent operators
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we are asked to forecast the following four quarters for year three and explain the observations made. However‚ we must assume that Highline Financial Services‚ Ltd. has not made any changes in advertising‚ promotion or competition. For this problem we look to try and gather an estimate of what the best forecasting method will be for the demand of services A‚ B‚ and C. The methods of analysis used to attain the figures include; linear regression‚ regression model‚ and forecast error analysis.
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Forecasted Value of the next period “t+1” α------- Smoothing Factor/Coefficient Xt------- Actual Value of the current period “t” Ft------- Forecasted Value of the current period “t” Table 1 α=0.2 Months | Actual Values | Forecasted Values | Forecast Error | Jan | 66.1 | - | - | Feb | 66.1 | 66.1 | 0 | Mar | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.3 | Apr | 64.3 | 66.16 | -1.86 | May | 63.2 | 65.788 | -2.588 | Jun | 61.6 | 65.2704 | -3.6704 | Jul | 59.3 | 64.53632 | -5.23632 | Aug | 58.1 | 63.489056
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to assist the manager for whom a business forecast usually means an intuitive guess. The steps are listed below: 1. Determine the use of the forecast 2. Select the items or quantities to be forecasted 3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast 4. Select the forecasting method(s) that fit your business given your constraints and limitations. 5. Gather the data needed to make the forecast 6. Validate the forecasting model 7. Make the forecast 8. Implement the results Determining Time
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FORECASTING IN QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS I am highly honoured to give a presentation on forecasting. You are all welcome. Every organisation’s success depends on how well it is able to forecast. We will look at the meaning of forecast‚ the steps‚ qualitative and quantitative forecasting and finally the benefits. The Meaning Of Forecasting Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data. Forecasting provides information about the potential future events
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