CHAPTER 22 estimating risk and return on assets 1. WHAT IS RISK? Risk is the variability of an asset’s future returns. When only one return is possible‚ there is no risk. When more than one return is possible‚ the asset is risky. The greater the variability‚ the greater the risk. 2. RISK – RETURN RELATIONSHIP Investment risk is related to the probability of actually earning less than the expected return – the greater the chance of low or negative returns‚ the riskier the investment
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Understanding Risk and Return 10-1 Introduction Risk is a fundamental component of investing. Risk must be understood and managed. In selecting securities‚ it is important to understand and measure market risk. Then securities can be selected by choosing securities with expected returns that exceed required returns. 10-2 Chapter Objectives To grasp the nature of risk and its sources and to relate risk to investment return To grasp the concepts of required return and expected return and to
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1."Why is expected return considered forward-looking? What are the challenges for practitioners to utilize expected return?" (Cornett‚ Adair‚ and Nofsinger‚ 2012‚ p. 246). Expected return is “forward-looking” in the sense that it represents the return investors expect to receive in the future as compensation for the market risk taken. The challenge is that practitioners cannot precisely know what the future holds and thus what the expected return should be. Thus‚ we create methods to estimate the
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Chapter 8 Analysis of Risk and Return © 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned‚ copied or duplicated‚ or posted to a publicly accessible website‚ in whole or in part. Introduction This chapter develops the risk-return relationship for individual projects (investments) and a portfolio of projects. The principles can also be applied to securities. © 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned‚ copied or duplicated‚ or posted
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1. Convert prices to total return (% change in the price) = (Pt – Pt-1) / Pt-1 2. Remove outliers – sort data and remove anything +/- 20% 3. Calculate historical average and historical risk X-BAR = Σx/n Calculate the sum of the total return and divide by the number of observations • Variance = σ2 = Σ(x – x bar) 2 / (n-1) Fix X-BAR‚ double click to apply to all dates‚ get the sum‚ divide by (n-1) Risk = σ = √σ = SQRT(Variance) = standard deviation 4. Average Matrix Excel Options
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