ICS 2307 SIMULATION AND MODELLING Course Outline Systems modelling – discrete event simulation Design of simulation experiments simulation Language probability and distribution theory Statistical estimation‚ inference and random number generators Sample event sequences for random number generation Translation of models for simulation application References Simulation modelling and analysis Introduction Computers can be used to imitate (simulate) the operations of various kinds of real
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Simulation software Simulation software is based on the process of modeling a real phenomenon with a set of mathematical formulas. It is‚ essentially‚ a program that allows the user to observe an operation through simulation without actually performing that operation. Simulation software is used widely to design equipment so that the final product will be as close to design specs as possible without expensive in process modification. Simulation software with real-time response is often used in gaming
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Monte Carlo Simulation Using RiskSim 10 10.1 RISKSIM OVERVIEW RiskSim is a Monte Carlo Simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel 2000–2010 (Windows) and Microsoft Excel 2004 (Macintosh). RiskSim provides random number generator functions as inputs for your model‚ automates Monte Carlo simulation‚ and creates charts. Your spreadsheet model may include various uncontrollable uncertainties as input assumptions (e.g.‚ demand for a new product‚ uncertain variable cost of production‚ competitor reaction)
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2 Change Orders 3 Lessons 3 Appendix A: Simulation Comments 4 Appendix B: Simulation Results 6 Consensus versus Average Forecasting The consensus forecasts worked well for quick insight into estimated demand for each month. In our first year we used the consensus demand because we did not know the dynamics of the group‚ and we were relying on their expertise to guide us toward a more accurate forecast. As we progressed through the simulation we came to the realization that the consensus
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SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION: APPLICATIONS IN RISK MANAGEMENT[1] MARCO BETTER AND FRED GLOVER OptTek Systems‚ Inc.‚ 2241 17th Street‚ Boulder‚ Colorado 80302‚ USA {better‚ glover}@opttek.com GARY KOCHENBERGER University of Colorado Denver 1250 14th Street‚ Suite 215 Denver‚ Colorado 80202‚ USA Gary.kochenberger@cudenver.edu HAIBO WANG Texas A&M International University Laredo‚ TX 78041‚ USA hwang@tamiu.edu Simulation Optimization is providing solutions to
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the Starbucks 1 Data Collection and Analysis 1 Inter Arrival Time 3 Service at the Counter 4 Service Time for Barista 1 5 Service Time for Barista 2 6 Observation Table …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7 Project Statement Starbucks is the largest coffee house company in the world. They have over 16‚000 stores in over 50 countries. We have one of their outlets in our university. We chose to carry out our simulation project on this particular store because
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In the first day of the simulation‚ I learnt that when thrown into the water‚ I don’t get nervous. Rather‚ I am happy to take a challenge and trying to do the best I can. Since I had no prior background in HR – I have deliberately decided to take this role. When we were asked to choose the logo for the company‚ after some negotiations the team agreed to take my choice. I learnt that I can convince people follow my ideas. As the VP of HR‚ I needed to work and coordinate with all other team members
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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles A Player Based Approach to Baseball Simulation A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics by Adam Philip Sugano 2008 © Copyright by Adam Philip Sugano 2008 The dissertation of Adam Philip Sugano is approved. _______________________________________ Jan de Leeuw _______________________________________ Rick Paik Schoenberg _______________________________________
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Acquisitions 4 3. Implicit assumptions of the Monte Carlo simulation 4 3.1 Capital expenditure 5 3.2 Investment in intangibles 5 3.3. Working Capital 5 3.4 Consistency between implicit and explicit assumptions 5 4. Description of the working of the simulation 6 5. The results of the simulation in comparison with Diageo ’s stated capital structure policy 6 5.1 Diageo ’s stated capital structure policy 6 5.2 The results of the Monte Carlo simulation 7 5.3 Increase in gearing for Diageo 7 6. Conclusion 8
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International Business Simulations iBizSim01: BM 2 P1 User Manual © 2005-2009 by Prof. Dr. Ashok N. Ullal‚ Hoelderlinstrasse 13‚ 72127 Kusterdingen‚ Germany iBizSim: International Business Simulations iBizSim01: BM 2 P1 Note: This document has been formatted for double-sided printing. © 2005-2009 by Prof. Dr. Ashok N. Ullal‚ Hoelderlinstrasse 13‚ 72127 Kusterdingen‚ Germany iBizSim: International Business Simulations 1 The International Business Simulation iBizSim01 1.1 1.2
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