2011 • Zagreb‚ Croatia Electricity price forecasting – ARIMA model approach Tina Jakaša #1‚ Ivan Andročec #2‚ Petar Sprčić *3 Hrvatska elektroprivreda Ulica grada Vukovara 37‚ Zagreb‚ Croatia 2 # tina.jakasa@hep.hr ivan.androcec@hep.hr 1 * HEP Trade Ulica grada Vukovara 37‚ Zagreb‚ Croatia 2 petar.sprcic@hep.hr Abstract— Electricity price forecasting is becoming more important in everyday business of power utilities. Good forecasting models can increase effectiveness of producers
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Forecasting: The McDonald ’s Way McDonald’s is a well-known worldwide franchise and has been around since the 1950s. Serving customers for over 50 years successfully entails a strong inventory and operations management system. “McDonald ’s is the world ’s #1 fast-food company by sales‚ with more than 33‚500 restaurants serving burgers and fries in 119 countries” (University of Phoenix [UOP]‚ 2012‚ p. 2). To maintain and continue a successful franchise operation‚ quality food items‚ and highly successful
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Chapter 6: Prospective Analysis: Forecasting Key Concepts in Chapter 6 • Strategy‚ accounting and financial performance analyses provide valuable information that help to shape forecast assumptions. • Forecasts of future performance should be comprehensive‚ including all condensed financial statements. • The starting point for forecasts should be the time series behaviour of key measures such as sales growth‚ earnings and ROE (and its components). Overall Structure of the Forecast • Typically
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Manager’s Guide to Forecasting by David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick Harvard Business Review Reprint 86104 J A N U A RY– F E B R U A RY 1 9 8 6 HBR Manager’s Guide to Forecasting David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick E arly in 1984‚ the Houston-based COMPAQ Computer Corporation‚ manufacturer of IBMcompatible microcomputers‚ faced a decision that would profoundly affect its future. Recognizing that IBM would soon introduce its version of the portable computer and threaten
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UNIT 6 DEMAND ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING Objectives By studying this unit‚ you should be able to: identify a wide range of demand estimation and forecasting methods; apply these methods and to understand the meaning of the results; understand the nature of a demand function; identify the strengths and weaknesses of the different methods; understand that demand estimation and forecasting is about minimising risk. Structure 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 Introduction Estimating Demand Using
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Eight Steps to Forecasting • Determine the use of the forecast □ What objective are we trying to obtain? • Select the items to be forecast • Determine the time horizon of the forecast □ Short time horizon – 1 to 30 days □ Medium time horizon – 1 to 12 months □ Long time horizon – more than 1 year • Select the forecasting model(s) |Description |Qualitative Approach |Quantitative Approach
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Integrated Planning – Module 2 1 Agenda • Forecasting‚ • Factors influencing Demand • Basic Demand Patterns • Basic Principles of Forecasting • Principles of Data Collection • Basic Forecasting Techniques‚ Seasonality • Sources & Types of Forecasting Errors Forecasting can be conducted at various levels Strategic Required for • Product life cycle • Long-term capacity planning • Capital asset/equipment/ human resource management Examples • Product line transitions • Annual volume out
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1. INTRODUCTION TO THE TERM PAPER 1.2 BACKGROUND Forecasting relates to the management functions of planning‚ organizing and controlling. It is one of the key elements of operations management. Companies serve their customers and the society at large by producing various goods and services. The market need is continuously changing. In order to cope up with the changing demand companies must develop a good forecasting technique to determine the demand level For this term paper‚ five different products
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Chapter FORECASTING Discussion Questions 1. Qualitative models incorporate subjective factors into the forecasting model. Qualitative models are useful when subjective factors are important. When quantitative data are difficult to obtain‚ qualitative models may be appropriate. 2. Approaches are qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative is relatively subjective; quantitative uses numeric models. 3. Short-range (under 3 months)‚ medium-range (3 months to 3 years)‚ and long-range (over
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Demand Estimation Demand Curve Estimation ■ Simple Linear Demand Curves ■ The best estimation method balances marginal costs and marginal benefits. ■ Simple linear relations are useful for demand estimation. ■ Using Simple Linear Demand Curves ■ Straight-line relations give useful approximations. Identification Problem ■ Changing Nature of Demand Relations ■ Demand relations are dynamic. ■ Interplay of Supply and Demand ■ Economic
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