Quantitative Methods ADMS 3330 3 0 3330.3.0 Forecasting QMB Chapter 6 © M.Rochon 2013 Quantitative Approaches to Forecasting Are based on analysis of historical data concerning one or more time series. Time series - a set of observations measured at successive points in time‚ or over successive periods of time. If the historical data: • are restricted to past values of the series we are trying to forecast‚ it is a time series method. 1 Components of a Time Series 1)
Premium Time series Moving average Forecasting
TYPES OF FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments or opinions‚ and are subjective in nature. They do not rely on any mathematical computations. Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on quantitative models‚ and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations. QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative Methods Executive Opinion Market Research Delphi
Premium Forecasting Moving average Exponential smoothing
fashion forecasting “Forecasting provides a way for executives to expand their thinking about changes‚ through anticipating the future‚ and projecting the likely outcomes.” (Lavenback and Cleary 1981) Long term forecasting (over 2 years ahead) is used by executives for planning purposes. It is also used for marketing managers to position products in the marketplace in relationship to competition. (http://www.fibre2fashion.com/industry-article/free-fashion-industry-article/fashion-forecasting/fashion-forecasting5
Premium Forecasting Future Fashion
Financial Modeling Templates Financial Forecasting (Pro Forma Financial Statements) http://spreadsheetml.com/finance/financialplanningforecasting_proformafinancialstatements.shtml Copyright (c) 2009‚ ConnectCode All Rights Reserved. ConnectCode accepts no responsibility for any adverse affect that may result from undertaking our training. Microsoft and Microsoft Excel are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation. All other product names are trademarks‚ registered trademarks‚ or service
Premium Generally Accepted Accounting Principles Balance sheet Financial ratio
Sheet1 Marriott Cost of Capital Lodging Division Tax Rate 0.44 Equity Beta D/D+S Lodging Hilton Holiday La Quinta Ramada Average 0.76 1.35 0.89 1.36 1.09 14% 79% 69% 65% 0.5675 S/D+S 86% 21% 31% 35% 0.4325 D/S Unlevered Beta 0.16 3.76 2.23 1.86 2.00 0.65 0.28 0.28 0.48 0.42 Target D/D+S Target D/S Levered Beta 74% 2.85 1.62 Costs of Equity: Rf Lodging MRP 8.95% 7.43% Beta Requity 1.62 21.02% Costs of Debt: Rf Lodging 8.95% Spread Tax rate Rdebt(1-T) 1.10% 0.44 0.0563 WACCs: Lodging
Premium Progressive tax
Forecasting Monthly Sales Case Study Review Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Quantitative Analysis for Management Group One Background For years The Glass Slipper restaurant has operated in a resort community near a popular ski area of New Mexico. The restaurant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year‚ when the ski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area. When James and Deena Weltee built The Glass Slipper‚ they had
Premium Cinderella Forecasting Future
Automobile Industry Manufacturing process Forecasting. Operations management AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY MANUFACTURING FORCASTING. Why automotive sector? Projected growth of the Indian auto industry translates to 10 -11 % of India GDP by 2016 Auto- component industry in India expected to be USD 45 billion. Policy initiative to market India as an attractive manufacturing destination. Automotive industry promises significant employment opportunities
Premium Automotive industry General Motors Volkswagen Group
Howard 05/28/2012 Apple Forecasting‚ Budgets‚ &MRP A. Forecasting Technique I. Time Series Analysis A) Trend Projections-Fits a mathematical trend line to the data points and projects it into the future. B) Apple forecasting – Company is progressively stronger over past 10 years C) Current market demand requires trend forecasting B. Budgets I. Constant Workforce a) Monthly Calculations
Premium Apple Inc. App Store Forecasting
Case 1- Marriott Corporation: The Cost of Capital Some preliminary questions: 1. What do you think about Marriott’s policy of repurchasing shares? Repurchase whenever stock price < warranted equity value Does this mean the market is inefficient? 2. Why does Marriott manage rather than own hotel assets? Finding limited partners on a hotel project is equivalent to selling private equity in the project Is there any reason to
Premium Hotel Economics Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
Forecasting HSM 260 07/19/2013 Forecasting Exercise 9.1 In the text‚ exercise 9.1 provides data for Palmdale Human Services. In this exercise it asks for the 20X5 figures using several forecasting models. The process of find 20X5 will include the use of moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ and exponential smoothing. The Palmdale Human Services personal expenses for the past four years are represented in the following data: Fiscal Year | Expense | 20X1 | $5‚250‚000 | 20X2 | $5‚500
Premium Pearson Education Weighted mean Moving average