do ____________ moving averages. 12. The maximin criterion results in the maximum of the minimum payoffs. 13. ___________ is a technique for selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution. 14. Which of the following is incorrect with respect to the use of models in decision making? 15. In computer mathematical simulation a system is replicated with a mathematical model that is analyzed 16. The maximin criterion results in the 17. Analogue simulation replaces a
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Purdue University Leyla Ozsen IE 383 Fall 2005 DECISION ANALYSIS Making important decisions often requires treating major uncertainty‚ long time horizons‚ and complex value issues. To deal with such problems‚ the discipline of decision analysis was developed. The discipline comprises the philosophy‚ theory‚ methodology‚ and professional practice necessary to formalize the analysis of important decisions. Decision Analysis is a set of quantitative decision-making techniques for decision situations
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DECISION QUIZZES 1. The value of perfect information is directly related to losses predicted with imperfect information. A. True B. False A. True B. False 2. EVPI is the expected financial value of the regret for the optimal decision under risk. A. True B. False A. True B. False 3. A decision tree branches out to include all of the possible decisions and all of the possible events we are capable of identifying. A. True
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theory of decision making under uncertainty Demonstrate how to calculate and select a decision when uncertainties regarding the future exist Understand the method that will optimize the resulting payoff in terms of a decision criterion 3 WEDDING ANNIVERSARY? Mr. Right is about to leave work for home. He looks at his calendar. It is August 24. This‚ he feels‚ is an important date. Is it his wedding anniversary? He better buy his wife some flowers (cost $25). What
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– Decision Analysis 3 A list of alternatives. A list of possible future states of nature. Payoffs associated with each alternative/state of nature combination. An assessment of the degree of certainty of possible future events. A decision criterion. The list of alternatives must be the set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive decisions that are available to the decision maker. Sometimes‚ but not always‚ one of these alternatives will be do nothing. 3 – Decision Analysis 4
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Chapter 13: Chi-Square Applications SHORT ANSWER 1. When samples of size n are drawn from a normal population‚ the chi-square distribution is the sampling distribution of = ____________________‚ where s2 and are the sample and population variances‚ respectively. ANS: PTS: 1 OBJ: Section 13.2 2. Find the chi-square value for each of the right-tail areas below‚ given that the degrees of freedom are 7: A) 0.95 ____________________ B) 0.01 ____________________ C) 0.025 ____________________
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our dream‚ but in the end it all worked out and it was worth the risk. 3-17 (use QM) ( a) What type of decision is Ken facing? Ken is facing a decision under uncertainty. ( b) What decision criterion should he use? Since Ken is an optimistic decision maker‚ the maximax decision making criterion should be used to chose his equipment. ( c) What alternative is best? Sub 100‚ which is listed in the first row of the table has a profit of 300‚000 which is the highest increase in profit listed
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User Course Test Started Submitted Status Score Amy Mclaughlin Quantitative Methods Midterm Exam 11/6/11 5:27 PM 11/6/11 6:56 PM Completed 195 out of 200 points Time Elapsed 1 hour‚ 28 minutes out of 4 hours. Instructions false Question 1 5 out of 5 points Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs. Answer Selected Answer: Correct Answer: Question 2 5 out of 5 points Variable costs are independent of volume and remain constant. True
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a. Using Maximax‚ the worst payoffs for the alternatives are as follws: Do nothing: $60 thousands Expand: $80 thousands Subcontract: $70 thousands Hence‚ since $80 thousands is the best‚ choose to expand the firms using the maximax strategy b. Using Maximin Do nothing: $50 thousands Expand: $20 thousands Subcontract: $40 thousands Hence‚ since $50 thousands is the best‚ choose to do nothing using the maximin strategy c. Using Laplace For the Laplace criterion‚ first find
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–40 | Very Large | 300 | 25 | –160 | (b) What is the maximax decision? Decision Alternatives | Market (‘000) | Maximax decision shall be the maximum value of a row/decision alternatives | Maximax Decision Alternative | | Good | Fair | Poor | | | Small | 50 | 20 | –10 | | 50 | Medium | 80 | 30 | –20 | | 80 | Large | 100 | 30 | –40 | | 100 | Very Large | 300 | 25 | –160 | | 300 | If maximax decision is to be chosen: The decision shall be to open VERY
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