DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY MZ510 ANALYTICAL METHODS 23 SEPTEMBER 2013 OUTLINE Objectives Introduction Application (Example) Decision Criteria Summary 2 OBJECTIVES Study situations where decisions are made in an uncertain environment Introduce basic theory of decision making under uncertainty Demonstrate how to calculate and select a decision when uncertainties regarding the future exist Understand the method that
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Interpreting Causal Uncertainty with Individual’s Initial Interactions Many studies have been conducted to examine why people feel the way they do towards events or situations they perceive as not their stereotypical “norm” or feeling uncertain as to why someone did what they did. In a study by Gifford Weary and John A. Edwards (1994)‚ they define this uncertainty about one’s inability to comprehend or identify causal relationships or causal conditions in society as causal uncertainty (CU). Whether
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“Oligopolistic interdependence creates uncertainty‚ which in turn may promote collusive action” Oligopoly is a specific type of market within business. The markets within an oligopoly are controlled by a small number of large and powerful companies; contrast to a monopoly (where the market is controlled by a single company‚ allowing it full control of the market and its respective conditions – e.g. price & availability) and perfect competition (where numerous businesses of parallel aptitude
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Journal Entry1- Reducing Uncertainty Theory Uncertainty theory is an explanation of how we use information‚ as we strive to reduce our own uncertainty‚ in terms of how we relate to people‚ especially those people whom we do not know‚ or know very well. The communications theory creators Richard Calabrese‚ James Bradac‚ and Charles Berger believe that it is our motivation to reduce our own uncertainty‚ which drives us to communicate. We usually tend to respond to uncertainty in three ways: through
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in Organizations. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications. 3. Sutcliffe‚ K.‚ and K. Weick. 2002. “Managing the Unexpected: Assuring High Performance in an Age of Complexity.” European Management Journal‚ 20‚ pp. 709-710. Leadership in an Age of Uncertainty 4. Argyris‚ C. and Schön‚ D. 1996. Organizational learning II: Theory‚ method and practice. Reading‚ Mass: Addison Wesley. 5. Senge‚ P.‚ 1990. The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday. 6.
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Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty Risk: In Common Parlance‚ risk means a low probability of an expected outcome. From business decision-making point of view‚ risk refers to a situation in which a business decision is expected to yield more than one outcome and the probability of each outcome is known to the decision makers or can be reliably estimated. For example‚ if a company doubles its advertisement expenditure‚ there are three probable outcomes: i) Its sales may more than double ii)
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Define environmental uncertainty and resource dependence. Describe the major ways in which managers can deal with high environmental uncertainty and resource dependence. A good answer would base the analysis of environmental uncertainty on Duncan’s approach‚ which characterises uncertainty in the stable-unstable and simple-complex dimensions. It should identify buffering‚ boundary spanning‚ organisational differentiation and integration as responses to growing uncertainties. As to management of
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Descartes’s Argument for Uncertainty 1. All previously held conceptions must be regarded as uncertain. a. Some previous conceptions were built on false opinions‚ or potentially false opinions and are therefore uncertain. b. All previous conceptions have been obtained from or through the senses‚ which guarantees their uncertainty. I. The senses have deceived in the past in cases of a small or distant thing‚ and could therefore do so again. II. The senses often deceive those who
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A Decision of Uncertainty Paper Cynthia Anderson QNT/561 November 14‚ 2012 University of Phoenix A Decision of Uncertainty Paper Decision: To buy or not to by the new Apple iPhone 5. Just recently‚ this past spring my cell phone contract recently expired after a continuous extension of over lapping contracts for over ten years. I have decided to finally upgrade my cell phone. The saturated cellular device industry can meet various consumer needs just depending on how sophisticated of a device
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Stanhope’s uncertainties and doubts Stanhope is a key character in the play‚ “Journey’s End” By R.C Sherriff. The playwright portrays Stanhope as a very disturbed soldier who relies on drink to keep him sane: "Drinking like a fish as usual?".This quote just backs up the fact that Stanhope is an alcoholic. Osbourne kindly warns Raleigh by saying "You know you mustn’t expect to find him quite the same" Stanhope also knows he has a drinking problem which is shown by the quote "Without being doped
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