| | |Delphi method | | | |Consumer market survey | | Qualitative Forecasting Methods Your company may wish to try any of the qualitative forecasting methods below if you do not have historical data on your products’ sales. |Qualitative Method |Description
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Components (behavior) of Time Series data o Trend o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques o Moving Averages o Exponential smoothing Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation Curvilinear
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normally distributed and efficiently generated A: False Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted. A: False Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. A: False The Delphi method develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future. A: True A company markets education software products and is ready to place three new products on the market‚ past experience has shown that for this particular software. The chance
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1. A few recommendations would serve very useful to Mr. Perez for developing more precise sales forecasts. First‚ the same method should not be used for each of the chemical group’s division. Because the market is so different in each division‚ some techniques will not work for one division like it would for another. For example‚ a test market may work for a division with a brand new product‚ but it would not be as helpful or efficient for a division where there has been steady growth and established
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2013. Revenue for the limousine service is driven by the amount of visitors to the area. Therefore‚ in order to forecast the company’s revenue‚ Denis will have to prepare a forecast for visitors to Las Vegas using different forecasting methods. The best forecast method will be chosen and will help determine the growth of revenue; and ultimately decide whether Dumitru should replace three vehicles as well as add two additional vehicles to his fleet. Background In 1983‚ Dumitru Mironescu and his
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book. But read the book. Forecasting 1. Do forecasting accuracy increase or decrease as the planning horizon increases? 2. Do forecasting accuracy increase or decrease as items are grouped (aggregated?) 3. What is Delphi method? What makes it work? 4. What problems do you see with sales force composite estimate? 5. What is causal (associative) forecasting? 6. What is time series forecasting? 7. What are the components of time series? 8. Which statistic do
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regression line method and time series data or cross sectional data. D) The potential weakness for this model is variable t because it is unknown. 5) 2000 | 800 | x x x x 2001 925 x x 800 800 2002 900 x x 913 838 2003 1025 x 875 901 857 2004 1150 x 950 1013 907 2005 1160 960 1025 1136 980 2006 1200 1032 1112 1158 1034 2007 1150 1087 1170 1196 1084 2008 1270 1137 1170 1155 1104 2009 1290 1186 1207 1259 1154 2010 x 1214 1236 1287 1195 B) Five-year moving average = 141.9
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Sales Volume 10000 12400 14250 15750 20500 18500 15750 20500 21500 22550 6. Using Data Set E1‚ what would be the forecast for period 7 using a four period moving average: (Choose the closest answer.) a. 17625 b. 15225 c. 15300 d. 17250 7. Using Data Set E1‚ what would be the forecast for period 6 using a five period weighted moving average? The weights for each period are 0.05‚ 0.10‚ 0.20‚ 0.30‚ and 0.35 from the oldest period to the most recent period‚ respectively. (Choose the
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for patterns in data -pattern vs noise‚ and noise is random and has zero average ideally -in real world. Noise is random but probably not with zero mean -time series usually decomposed into different affects (seasonality‚ tend‚ noise‚ etc) d(t) =(L+ back fit your data to see if you have a good forecast what would you do 1. Plot the data in excel forecast approaches were in order with charts moving average-look at last few periods and update each new period with the new data (ie
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conjunction with preparing and using the forecast. 5. Monitor the forecast to see if it is performing in a satisfactory manner. If it is not‚ reexamine the method‚ assumptions‚ validity of data‚ and so on; modify as needed; and prepare a revised forecast. There are two general approaches to forecasting: Qualitative: Judgmental methods: Consumer surveys Questioning consumers on future plans. Sales force composites Joint estimates obtained from salespeople. Executive opinion Finance
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