FORECASTING FORECASTING The Role of the Manager Planning Organizing Staffing Leading Controlling Future ? Data Information • Short-range • Medium-range • Long-range Features Common to All Forecasts Forecasting techniques generally assume that same underlying causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future. Forecasts are rarely perfect. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. Forecast
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Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process
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Contents: 1. Introduction: pg: 2 2. Washington Consensus pg: 2 (i) Success of WC pg: 4 (ii) Failures of WC pg: 5 3. Role of East Asian Countries pg: 6 4. Post Washington Consensus: pg: 7 5. Does it offer fresh opportunities?: pg: 9 6. Conclusion: pg: 12 7. Bibliography: pg: 13 Discuss how the approaches of the post-Washington Consensus differ from those of the Washington Consensus‚ and then show whether these new approaches offer
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(15%) Draft: Final 10/3 Start by choosing the theme‚ issue‚ or symbol in Persepolis that interests you most‚ then find a series of (at least two) panels that seem to say or imply a lot about that theme‚ issue‚ symbol‚ etc. Begin your exercise by copying out the passage in full. Then‚ in 4-5 pages of your own words‚ analyze how the panels you have chosen develop or display that theme or symbol. You do not need to focus on all of the qualities or themes of the text; rather‚ use the short passage
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FORECASTING Q1: Moving averages are often used to identify movements of stock prices. Weekly closing prices (in $ per share) for Toys Я Us for 22 September‚ 1997‚ through December 8‚ 1997‚ are as follows (Prudential Securities Inc); Month Sept 22 Sept 29 Oct 6 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 3 Nov 10 Nov 17 Nov 24 Dec 1 Dec 8 Fund Price 37.8750 35.6250 34.6875 33.5625 32.6250 34.0000 33.6250 35.0625 34.0625 34.1250 33.2500 32.0625 a. Use a 3-month simple moving average
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Types of Questions a. situational interview b. job-related interview c. behavioral interview d. psychological interview 4. Administering the Interview a. sequential interview i. structured ii. unstructured b. panel interview c. computerized interviews B. How Useful Are Interviews? C. Interviewing and the Law: Employment Discrimination "Testers" D. Information Technology and HR: The Computer-Aided Interview page 223 of the text: see Discussion
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PANEL DISCUSSION A panel discussion is a public exchange of ideas with a goal of informing audience members about a particular subject or issue. In most cases‚ 3 or more panelists share their knowledge and expertise after being asked questions in a format that allows some discussion. Panel discussions are used to delve into politics‚ science and community topics‚ as well as many other issues. Use these tips to conduct a panel discussion for your group‚ organization or company. ELEMENTS: Audio
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improve their social life. They wanted to build a new country which is free from all kinds of political and religious conflicts. The result that they have started to search for solutions can build a new civilization thus they used the ideology of consensus. In politics‚ they needed to make a social harmony by supporting in both taste and common sense. They faced many problems‚ including the conflict between the Whigs and Tories and Lack of respect for the monarchy (paper). They found that the
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satellites. The only thing needed is a means to convert the energy contained in the Sun’s radiation – mainly light and ultraviolet rays – into electrical power. The most efficient way to achieve this today is by using panels composed of semiconductor photovoltaic cells. ‘Solar panels’‚ as they are usually called‚ are now quite a common sight here on Earth‚ but they were first used in space in 1958 to power the ‘Vanguard’ satellite. Principles of solar satellites In photovoltaic cells‚ such as the
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Forecasting Methods Forecasting demand is not an easy task. The market is constantly changing and it makes the product demand difficult to predict. Therefore‚ there is not such as perfect product forecast of what customers will need in the future. However‚ there are several methods that help attenuating the uncertainty of forecasting demand. Since‚ the forecast methods or techniques differ from one another; the objective is to compare and contrast several forecasting methods‚ and how they are
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