A short introduction to the Arena simulation software Version 1.0 dr. Kees Jan Roodbergen dr. Iris F.A. Vis © 2007 ©2007‚ K.J. Roodbergen and I.F.A. Vis All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the related models may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the authors. 1 Contents 1 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6 Terminology .................
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standard deviation squared so if variance is high then standard deviation is high Population standard deviation σ = Example 1 find the population mean μ and population standard deviation σ of the gambling game with distribution. Profit x -2 2 Probability p(x) 0.5 0.5 This is a gambling game were there is a 50% chance of losing $2 and a 50% chance of winning $2 Solution mean μ= -2×0.5+2×0.5=0 There are two methods for finding the population standard deviation squared σ2‚ they give the same answer
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the covariance for the discrete and Continuous Random Variables. 3. Consider the special cases of covariance. 4. Compute correlation. Institute of Lifelong Learning‚ University of Delhi 3 Introduction So far we have studied Joint Probability mass / Density function and expected value of some function of random variables. It is also of interested‚ at times‚ to know whether two random variables have some sort of relationship or not. For example‚ someone may be interested in knowing
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1)Permutation----nPr = n! ---- (n-r)! 2)Combination----nCr = nPr = n! ----- ------- n r! r! (n-r)! 3)Summation-----∑ X i i =1 n 4)Product--------Л Xi i=1 5)Age specific fertility rate(Asfr)=No of
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Counting * n factorial: n! = n * (n-1) * (n - 2) * . . . * 3 * 2 * 1. By convention‚ 0! = 1. * Permutations of n things‚ taken r at a time: nPr = n! / (n - r)! * Combinations of n things‚ taken r at a time: nCr = n! / r!(n - r)! = nPr / r! Probability * Rule of addition: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B) * Rule of multiplication: P(A ∩ B) = P(A)
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3101 MSOM 1st in-class Group Assignment (Ch 1 and Mod A) Q1) Lake Charles Seafood makes 450 wooden packing boxes for fresh seafood per day‚ working in two 10-hour shifts. Due to increased demand‚ plant managers have decided to operate three 8-hour shifts per day instead. The plant is now able to produce 650 boxes per day. (2-points) i. Before the change in work rules‚ the company’s productivity = boxes/hour ii. After the change‚ the new productivity level = boxes/hour iii. Based on the changes
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market are rational mean variance optimisers. • Finally‚ investors have homogenous expectations which imply that they analyse securities in the same way‚ share the same economic view of the world‚ therefore they share identical estimates of probability distributions of cash flows. Beta shows the relationship between the expected return of a stock and the return of the financial market as a whole. In relation to this project‚ it measures the elasticity of Mobil’s Oil returns in relation to the
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countries‚ there are more people with lower education and improper tax systems. Inadequate education will have positive effect on lottery ticket buying. People with no mathematical skill will turn to buy more tickets since they can’t relate that the probability of winning is very low. they can’t make informed decision and turn to rely on chances. Improper tax systems will also increase lottery demands. For example‚ in Myanmar‚ when people make a purchase on land or houses‚ they have to declare the source
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Segal February 26‚ 2015 Risk analysis is the procedure of characterizing and analyzing the dangers of organizations‚ people‚ and government agencies posed as a result of possible common and human-caused adverse occasions. Project A Project B Probability Cash Flow Expected Value Cash Flow Expected Value 0.2 8100 1620 500 100 0.5 9100 4550 8100 4050 0.3 10500 3150 16500 4950 Expected Value 3320 3100 These expected values represent the cash flow from each project that is at the end of three years
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OPERATION MANAGEMENT (MGT508) Assignment One Assignment 1 (case 1) Answer: Bob Raines and Megan Waters own and operate the Rainewater Brewery‚ a micro –brewery that grew out of their shared hobby of making home brew. The process charts of the brewery preparation shown below. According to this process they both make around batch of 1000 bottles. During the process of beer making if the slightly colour and taste was a little
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