ntroduction to Monte Carlo simulation This article was adapted from Microsoft Office Excel 2007 Data Analysis and Business Modeling by Wayne L. Winston. Visit Microsoft Learning to learn more about this book. This classroom-style book was developed from a series of presentations by Wayne Winston‚ a well known statistician and business professor who specializes in creative‚ practical applications of Excel. So be prepared — you may need to put your thinking cap on. In this article * Overview
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Problem Sheet - I 1. Researcher conducted by a tobacco company indicates that the relative frequency distribution of tar content of its newly developed low-tar cigarette has a mean equal to 3.9 milligrams of tar per cigarette and a standard deviation equal to 1.0 milligram. Suppose a sample of 100 low-tar cigarettes is randomly selected from a day’s production and the tar content is measured in each. Assuming that the tobacco company’s claim is true‚ what is the probability that the mean
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THE LOGIC OF EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN The randomized comparative experiment is one of the most important ideas in statistics. It is designed to allow us to draw cause-and-effect conclusions. Be sure you understand the logic: • Randomization produces groups of subjects that should be similar in all respects before we apply the treatments. • Comparative design ensures that influences other than the experimental treatments operate equally on all groups. • Therefore‚ differences in the response variable
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MATLAB EXERCISES UEMH3163 / UECS2053 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 1. Run the MATLAB code: a = 1:5; d = a+i*a; e = d’ f = d.’ g = mod(5‚4) 2. Given A = [1 2 4; 1 1 1; 2 3 1] and B = [2 2 2; 2 2 2; 2 2 2]. Run the MATLAB code: a=A>B b=A>1 3. Given A = magic(4). Run MATLAB code : DiagElement = diag(A) DiagMatrix = diag(diag(A)) SuperDiagElement = diag(A‚2) 4. Run the MATLAB code: name = upper(’matlab’) fun = strrep(’hahaha’‚’a’‚’i’) greet = ’Welcome’; where = ’to Joan’’s’; party = ’birthday
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| | 1. Research one of the Monte Carlo analysis Products listed in the Topic Notes I reviewed the following products that developed Monte Carlo analysis package: Monte Carlo Simulation within Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Palisade ’s @RiskModeling Oracle ’s Crystal Ball‚ RiskDecision ’s Predict! Risk Controller I really found two of the four solutions
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Q1.(a) What is linear programming problem? (b) A toy company manufactures two types of dolls‚ a basic version doll-A and a deluxe version doll-B. Each doll of type B takes twice as long to produce as one of type A‚ and the company would have time to make maximum of 1000 per day. The supply of plastic is sufficient to produce 1000 dolls per day (both A & B combined). The deluxe version requires a fancy dress for which there are only 500 per day available. If the company makes a profit of Rs 3.00
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CHAPTER 1: Introduction MULTIPLE CHOICE 1. The process of using sample statistics to draw conclusions about true population parameters is called a) statistical inference. b) the scientific method. c) sampling. d) descriptive statistics. ANSWER:a 2. Those methods involving the collection‚ presentation‚ and characterization of a set of data in order to properly describe the various features of that set of data are called a) statistical inference. b) the scientific method. c) sampling
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The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution. It is often used as a model for the number of events (such as the number of telephone calls at a business‚ number of customers in waiting lines‚ number of defects in a given surface area‚ airplane arrivals‚ or the number of accidents at an intersection) in a specific time period. It is also useful in ecological studies‚ e.g.‚ to model the number of prairie dogs found in a square mile of prairie. The major difference between Poisson and Binomial
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1. Question : Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is male? Answer: .667 2. Question : Employees of a local university have been classified according to gender and job type. If an employee is selected at random what is the probability that the employee is female given that the employee is a salaried member of staff? Answer:
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Chaos Theory Flip a coin. Pick straws. Play rock‚ paper‚ scissors. Eeenie‚ meanie‚ miny‚ mo. These are all ways people make random decisions. They are all unsystematic methods of making choices that require little or no thought at all. All of these childish‚ silly‚ random techniques of making decisions are methods that relate to chaos theory. Chaos theory is the study and search for a pattern in random decision-making and information. It is about finding the system in unsystematic systems.
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