Composition E) Consumer Market Survey Answer: B Page Ref: 477 Topic: Types of Forecasts Difficulty: Easy 4) Which of the following is NOT considered to be a Time-Series method of forecasting? A) Simple Linear Regression B) Moving Average C) Exponential Smoothing D) Seasonality Analysis E) Multiplicative/Additive Decomposition Answer: A Page Ref: 477 Topic: Types of Forecasts Difficulty: Moderate 5) An iterative group process that allows experts‚ who may be located in different places‚ to make forecasts
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weighted moving averages‚ assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2‚ a value of 2 to the data for 20X3‚ and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ and time series regression. Moving Averages Fiscal Year Expenses 20X2 $5‚500‚000 20X3 $6‚000‚000 20X4 $6‚750‚000 20X2-4 $18‚250‚000 20X5 $18‚250‚000/3 = $6‚083‚333 Weighted
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(Time-series forecasting‚ easy) 11. One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved. True (Time-series forecasting‚ moderate) 12. The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method‚ the greater the method’s responsiveness to changes in demand. False (Time-series forecasting‚ moderate) 13. Forecast including trend is an exponential smoothing technique that utilizes two smoothing constants: one for the average
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Executive Summary Dumitri Mironescu is the owner of a limousine company in Las Vegas which currently consists of 17 vehicles. During the year of 2012‚ Dumitru decided that it was time to replace three of the company’s 17 vehicles. In addition‚ Dumitru wanted to add two new vehicles to his fleet of limousines. Dumitru submitted a business plan to the bank to finance his purchases. After reviewing his business plan‚ the bank was not comfortable with the company’s revenue forecast and needed further
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Chapter 1 Introduction to Operations Management True/False 1. Operations managers are responsible for assessing consumer wants and needs and selling and promoting the organization’s goods or services. Answer: False Page: 4 Difficulty: Easy 2. Often‚ the collective success or failure of companies’ operations functions will impact the ability of a nation to compete with other nations. Answer: True Page: 4 Difficulty: Easy 3. Companies are either producing
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$6‚750‚000 3 $20‚250‚000 __ ___________ 6 $37‚750‚000 20X5 $37‚750‚000 /6 = $6‚291‚667 Exponential Smoothing NF = $6‚300‚000 + 0.95($6‚750‚000 - $6‚300‚000) = $6‚300‚000 + 0.95(45‚000) = $6‚300‚000 + (42‚750) = $6‚342‚750 I would rather use moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ or exponential smoothing because I can better understand how the formulas and numbers turn out and how you get the answers from them. Even though the Time
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MgtOp 340 Exam 2 EOQ Suppose that JJ Inc. has a production rate of 250‚000 units per year and a demand of 800 per day. JJ has a setup cost of $40‚ and a holding cost percentage of 25%. JJ sells their product for $50 and it costs them $30 to produce it. If JJ works for 250 days per year‚ what is the optimal batch size? p=(250‚000/250days)=1‚000 P=250‚000(production rate) d=800 D=(800*250days)=200‚000 S=$40 I=.25 c=$30 H=(.25*30)=7.5 Optimal batch size => sqrt([2DS/H(1-d/p)]
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Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains‚ 10e (Krajewski et al.) Chapter 14 Forecasting 1) The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series. Answer: TRUE Reference: Demand Patterns Difficulty: Easy Keywords: time series‚ repeated observations 2) One of the basic time series patterns is random. Answer: TRUE Reference: Demand Patterns Difficulty: Easy Keywords: time series‚ pattern‚ random
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2. T F Regression is always a superior forecasting method to exponential smoothing. 3. T F The 3 categories of forecasting models are time series‚ quantitative‚ and qualitative. 4. T F Time-series models attempt to predict the future by using historical data. 5. T F A moving average forecasting method is a causal forecasting method. 6. T F An exponential forecasting method is a time-series forecasting method. 7. T F
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period t TAFt = Trend Adjusted Forecast for Period t made at the end of t-1) TAFt+k=Trend Adjusted Forecast for period t+k made at the end of period t Exponential Smoothing Ft+1 = aAt + (1 - a) Ft Forecasting next period= Forecast for the current period+ a fraction of the error for the current period Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing St = Smoothed Forecast at the end of period t Tt = Trend Estimate at the end of period t St = a1 At + (1 - a1) TAFt Tt = a2 (TAFt -TAFt -1) + (1
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