Contents Introduction Some applications of forecasting Defining forecasting General steps in the forecasting process Qualitative techniques in forecasting Time series methods The Naive Methods Simple Moving Average Method Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Evaluating the forecast accuracy Trend Projections Linear Regression Analysis Least Squares Method for Linear Regression Decomposition of the time series Selecting A Suitable Forecasting Method More on Forecast Errors Review Exercise CHAPTER
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extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting model. The concept of "developmental inertia" embodies the idea that some items are more easily changed than others. Clothing styles is an example of an area that contains little inertia. It is difficult to produce reliable mathematical forecasts for clothing. Energy consumption‚ on the other hand‚ contains substantial inertia and mathematical techniques work well. The developmental inertia of new industries or new technology cannot be
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increases. 3) 4) T T F F The critical path in a network of activities will be the path with the most number of activities. Forecasts are generally more accurate for individual products rather than for product families. In a simple exponential smoothing model the manager would prefer a large value for alpha if he/she wants to respond well to a system characterized by a low level of random behavior but often subjected to a real change in the
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Definitions • Operations and supply chain management (OSCM) is defined as the design‚ operation‚ and improvement of the systems that create and deliver the firm’s primary products and services • Concerned with the management of the entire system that produces a product or delivers a service • Operations refers to manufacturing and service processes that are used to transform the resources employed by a firm into products desired by customers • Supply chain refers to processes that move information
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on those forecast‚ we make plans and take action. Forecasting is one of the most important business functions because all other business decision is based on a forecast of the future. Decisions such as which markets to pursue‚ which products to produce‚ how much inventory to carry‚ and how many people to hire all require a forecast. Poor forecasting results in incorrect business decisions and leaves the company unprepared to meet future demands. The consequences can be very costly in terms of lost
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Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques o Moving Averages o Exponential smoothing Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation Curvilinear Trend Equation Techniques for Seasonality • What is seasonality? • What are seasonal relatives or indexes?
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are (0‚ 0) and (50‚ 12.5). C) The feasible region is triangular in shape‚ bounded by (50‚ 0)‚ (33-1/3‚ 8-1/3)‚ and (100‚ 0). D) The graphical origin (0‚ 0) is in the feasible region. Answer: C Q2) A manager must decide on the mix of products to produce for the coming week. Product A requires three minutes per unit for molding‚ two minutes per unit for painting‚ and one minute for packing. Product B requires two minutes per unit for molding‚ four minutes for painting‚ and three minutes per unit for
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Anderson‚ D. R.‚ et.al.‚ (2011) Quantitative Business Methods 11th ed. Retrieved from http://analysights.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/forecast-friday-topic-exponential-smoothing-methods/ Retrieved from http://www.decisionmakingsolutions.com/quotes_about_business.html Retrieved from http://www.logisitik.com/learning-center/forecasting-management/item/460-exponential-smoothing.html Retrieved from http://www.sanmiguel.com.ph/corporate/company/
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BUS 305 Practice Exam 3 1) Assume the following time series data representing the number of sales per day your company’s employees make. Year-Quarter | t | Yt | 2001-1 | 1 | 17 | 2001-2 | 2 | 26 | 2001-3 | 3 | 21 | 2001-4 | 4 | 15 | 2002-1 | 5 | 19 | 2002-2 | 6 | 18 | 2002-3 | 7 | 21 | 2002-4 | 8 | 23 | a) Use Applet #16 to calculate the seasonal index numbers for the four quarters. b) Interpret what each of the four indices you computed in (a)
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Demand Forecasting Demand forecasting • Why is it important • How to evaluate • Qualitative Methods • Causal Models • Time-Series Models • Summary Production and operations management Product Development long term medium term short term Product portifolio Purchasing Manufacturing Distribution Supply network designFacility Partner selection location Distribution network design and layout Derivatuve Supply Demand forecasting is product developmentcontract the starting ? point
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