PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Debadyuti Das The present paper attempts to find out the forecasted passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines on quarterly basis at a global level by employing four forecasting methods namely moving average‚ exponential smoothing‚ Holt’s model and Winter’s model with the help of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. The study has also found out the forecasting errors of all the four methods through Absolute error (AE)‚ Mean squared
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methods are: 1) Smoothing Methods 2) Trend Projection 3) Trend Projection‚ adjusted for seasonal influence (Multiplicative Model) 2 Smoothing Methods Smoothing methods are used to average out the irregular components of the time series in cases where the time series: is fairly stable‚ and has no significant trend‚ seasonal‚ or cyclical effects. • • Four common smoothing methods: 1) 2) 3) 4) Moving Average Weighted Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Centered Moving
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suggest that forecast accuracy can be improved by either damping or ignoring altogether trends which have a low probability of persistence. This paper develops an exponential smoothing model designed to damp erratic trends. The model is tested using the sample of 1‚001 time series first analyzed by Makridakis et al. Compared to smoothing models based on a linear trend‚ the model improves forecast accuracy‚ particularly at long leadtimes. The model also compares favorably to
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1 100 3 130 2 110 4 140 5 160 ══════════════════════════════════════════════ perform a regression analysis and forecast sales for the next two years: Exponential Smoothing 3.33 The Sporting Charge Company buys large quantities of copper that is used in its manufactured products. Bill Bray is developing a forecasting system for copper prices. He has accumulated this historical data: Copper
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Statistics For Management 1. Introduction 2. Statistical Survey 3. Classification‚ Tabulation & Presentation of data 4. Measures used to summarise data 5. Probabilities 6. Theoretical Distributions 7. Sampling & Sampling Distributions 8. Estimation 9. Testing of Hypothesis in case of large & small samples 10. Chi-Square 11. F-Distribution and Analysis of variance (ANOVA) 12. Simple correlation and Regression 13. Business Forecasting 14. Time Series Analysis 15 . Index Numbers Indian
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Study Guide for the Second Exam Aggregate Production Planning (APP) 1. What are the major inputs‚ constraints‚ and outputs of the aggregate production plan (APP)? Inputs - Strategic objectives of the corporation‚ policies‚ demand. Constraints - financial constraints (cash) and capacity constraints (machining capacity‚ limited labor in certain skill category‚ a critical component and/or raw material.) Outputs - is to determine the gross levels of inventory‚ overtime‚ subcontracting‚ backordering
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Integrated Planning – Module 2 1 Agenda • Forecasting‚ • Factors influencing Demand • Basic Demand Patterns • Basic Principles of Forecasting • Principles of Data Collection • Basic Forecasting Techniques‚ Seasonality • Sources & Types of Forecasting Errors Forecasting can be conducted at various levels Strategic Required for • Product life cycle • Long-term capacity planning • Capital asset/equipment/ human resource management Examples • Product line transitions • Annual volume out
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MGS 3100 - Business Analysis - Summer 2013 Sample Test (Test 2‚ July 10th‚ 2013) Name: _______________________________ ID number: _____________________ Multiple Choice: Select the one correct (or best) answer. For questions with calculations‚ select the closest answer‚ as there may be differences due to rounding. No part credit. No penalty for guessing (so answer all questions!). 3 points for each. Transfer answers carefully to the Scantron. *Cell phone is required to be off during the test
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Forecasting Models: Associative and Time Series Forecasting involves using past data to generate a number‚ set of numbers‚ or scenario that corresponds to a future occurrence. It is absolutely essential to short-range and long-range planning. Time Series and Associative models are both quantitative forecast techniques are more objective than qualitative techniques such as the Delphi Technique and market research. Time Series Models Based on the assumption that history will repeat itself‚
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Executive Summary Greaves Brewery is a growing beer operation based out of Trinidad. The purchasing manager for the brewery finds himself struggling in finding a balance between ordering enough bottles to support sales; yet minimizing over ordering to avoid issues associated with growth decelerating trend from an off year‚ continued impact from government excise tax‚ tourism‚ and growth of exports particularly the USA. In addition to previously mentioned concerns ordering the right number
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