Freemark Abbey Winery 1. Assuming Mr. Jaeger chooses to harvest the Riesling grapes before the storm arrives‚ how much money will he make? Harvesting before the storm arrives will bring $2.85 per bottle per case of revenue for the Riesling product. EMV = $2.85 c 12‚000 = $34‚200 2. Assuming Mr. Jaeger chooses to leave the grapes on the vine‚ what is the probability that the grapes will end up with botrytis‚ and how much money will he make if that occurs? EMV Botrytis = 12‚000 x .70
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UNIVERSIDAD TÉCNOLOGICA CENTROAMERICANA FACULTAD DE POSTGRADO MAESTRIA EN ADMINISTRACIÓN DE PROYECTOS GESTIÓN DE RIESGOS E INTEGRACIÓN DE PROYECTOS CASO No. 3 FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY PRESENTADO POR KARLA ALVARENGA – 10943107 ING. NANCY M. PEREZ DE PINEDA TEGUCIGALPA‚ M.D.C. 02 DE JUNIO DEL 2010. 1. ARBOLES DE DECISIÓN Gran parte del proceso de gestionar riesgos tiene que ver con mirar al futuro e intentar
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Freemark Abbey Winery Group ZZZ 1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes‚ he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way‚ he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of “Do not harvest & Bottling”: $39240 EV of “Do not harvest & Not bottling”: $39240-$12000*0.6*0.5=$35640
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options for Mr. Jaeger. Option 1 is to harvest immediately. If Mr. Jaeger does decide to harvest immediately‚ his per bottle revenue will come out to $2.85 wholesale. With 12‚000 bottles sold‚ Mr. Jaeger will generate a revenue of $34‚200 to Freemark Abbey Winery. Option 2‚ is much more
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Decision Analysis Case Study FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Khurram Masood’s section HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao Decision Basis Information Probability of rain‚ mold formation‚ acidity‚ sugar level‚ wine price‚ reputation value‚ detector accuracy‚ spores effectiveness‚ immigration law Mr. Jaeger’s Alternatives Harvest now or later Use detector or not Buy spores or not Sell in bottle or bulk Mr. Jaeger’s Preferences Prefers more money than less
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Northanger Abbey by Jane Austin Key facts: full title: Northanger Abbey author: Jane Austen type of work: Novel genre: ’Bildungsroman’(novel of education or moral development); parody of Gothic novels language: English (British‚ late 1700s/early 1800s) time and place written: 1798–1799 in Austen’s home in Steventon‚ Hampshire. It was sold to a publisher in 1803 but not published. Later‚ after Austen’s success with other novels‚ she bought back the manuscript and revised it slightly
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palace‚ and a prison. Now it is a museum. Westminster is the governmental part of London. Nearly all English kings and queens have been crowned in Westminster Abbey. It should be also mentioned that the wedding of Prince William‚ The Duke of Cambridge‚ and Kethrine Middletone‚ that took place on 29 Apri 2011 at Westminster Abbey . Everyone could watch the translation of their ceremony
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Thuy Truong 02/21/13 Reading and Writing Memory Curves‚ strokes‚ dots‚ and lines all twisting and turning around each other like some sort of messed up balloon animals. To me‚ these symbols are as complex as Chinese letters are to the snobs that spits out this language. “English”‚ they call it. “Why can you speak English?’ they ask. But from the day I stepped into that class‚ the one they call kindergarten‚ I knew it‚ “English” would be the beginning of a lifelong migraine. Vietnamese; that
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Breanna Nycole Sherman Miss Love English 10 31 May 2011 Theme Analysis of Northanger Abbey The book Northanger Abbey by Jane Austen is about a girl named Catherine and her journeys through Bath and Northanger Abbey. Catherine allows herself to believe anything she is told or reads. In doing so‚ she causes herself to look like a fool in several situations. The theme of Northanger Abbey is foolishness and a lack of good sense will lead a person into problems. Catherine’s lack of sense leads
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Outline of Memory MEMORY The ability to retain information over time –Active system that receives‚ stores‚ organizes‚ alters‚ and recovers (retrieves) MEMORY The ability to retain information over time –Active system that receives‚ stores‚ organizes‚ alters‚ and recovers (retrieves) THREE STAGES/TYPES OF MEMORY •SENSORY •SHORT TERM (WORKING) •LONG TERM THREE PROCESSES •ENCODING •STORING •RETRIEVING Stages of Memory •SENSORY (IN RAW FORM) –The first stage of memory –Stores an exact copy of incoming
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