5/7/08 4:42 PM Page 52 C H A P T E R Forecasting Models 5 TEACHING SUGGESTIONS Teaching Suggestion 5.1: Wide Use of Forecasting. Forecasting is one of the most important tools a student can master because every firm needs to conduct forecasts. It’s useful to motivate students with the idea that obscure sounding techniques such as exponential smoothing are actually widely used in business‚ and a good manager is expected to understand forecasting. Regression is commonly accepted as a tool
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Experimental Errors and Uncertainty No physical quantity can be measured with perfect certainty; there are always errors in any measurement. This means that if we measure some quantity and‚ then‚ repeat the measurement‚ we will almost certainly measure a different value the second time. How‚ then‚ can we know the “true” value of a physical quantity? The short answer is that we can’t. However‚ as we take greater care in our measurements and apply ever more refined experimental methods‚ we can reduce
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TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Forecasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 A. Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 B. Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 C. Importance of Forecasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1. Product Life Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
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QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative forecasting methods are based on educated opinions of appropriate persons 1. Delphi method: forecast is developed by a panel of experts who anonymously answer a series of questions; responses are fed back to panel members who then may change their original responses a- very time consuming and expensive b- new groupware makes this process much more feasible 2. Market research: panels‚ questionnaires‚ test markets‚ surveys‚ etc. 3. Product life-cycle
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9/5/14 Chapter 5 Forecasting To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management‚ Tenth Edition‚ by Render‚ Stair‚ and Hanna Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl © 2008 Prentice-Hall‚ Inc. © 2009 Prentice-Hall‚ Inc. Introduction n Managers are always trying to reduce uncertainty and make better estimates of what will happen in the future n This is the main purpose of forecasting n Some firms use subjective methods n Seat-of-the pants methods‚ intuition‚ experience n There are also
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Forecasting Methodology Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the company to consider probabilities of current and future trends using existing data and facts. Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision. Forecasting‚ according to Armstrong (2001)‚ is the basis of corporate long-run planning. Many times‚ this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline‚ but also to offer a prediction
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Forecasting Denosumab Why is forecasting for any new drug so important? Why for Denosumab? Drug forecasting is a very important and essential process for any drug for multiple reasons: 1. Cost: The drug development is a lengthy and an expensive process. It will aid in the predevelopment process to identify future demand and to identify if it is a worthwhile venture. The future of a company could depend on the success or failure of a new drug in the market. 2. Profitability 3. Market
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CAPITAL BUDGETING ANALYSIS To achieve success over time‚ a firm’s managers must identify and invest in projects that provide positive net present values to maximize shareholder wealth. Capital Budgeting Is the process of identifying‚ evaluating‚ and implementing a firms investment opportunities. Involves long-term projects Requires large initial investment Constructing plant and equipment Time frame maybe as short as a year or as long as twenty to thirty years The profitability of a firm
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Which of the following is the least useful sales forecasting model to use when sales are increasing? Select one: Trend adjusted exponential smoothing Weighted moving average Naïve Exponential smoothing ? Simple mean x Which of the following forecasting methods is most likely to be implemented to change an existing quantitative forecast to account for a new competitor in the marketplace? Select one: Gamma method Executive opinion Market research Naïve method Delphi method
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The definition of capital city is “the city or town that functions as the seat of government and administrative centre of a country or region”. In my own words‚ I define capital city as a city that is really important to the country in terms of politics and economics and capital city occupies a special position in politics compared to other cities. So‚ normally government will put more resources into those cities development. Also I think capital city has different purpose in different period of
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