11 Learning From Samples Of One Or Fewer

ORGANIZATION SCIENCE
Vol. 2. No. 1, February 1991
Primed in U.S.A.

LEARNING FROM SAMPLES OF ONE OR FEWER*
JAMES G. MARCH, LEE S. SPROULL AND M I C H A L

TAMUZ

Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305
Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215
Rutgers University, New Brunswicic, New Jersey 08903
Organizations learn from experience. Sometimes, however, history is not generous with experience. We explore how organizations convert infrequent events into interpretations of history, and how they balance the need to achieve agreement on interpretations with the need to interpret history correctly. We ask what methods are used, what problems are involved, and what improvements might be made. Although the methods we observe are not guaranteed to lead to consistent agreement on interpretations, valid knowledge, improved organizational performance, or organizational survival, they provide possible insights into the possibilities for and problems of learning from fragments of history.
(ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING; LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE; SMALL SAMPLES)

Learning from Samples of One or Fewer

Organizations learn from experience, but learning seems problematic when history offers only meager samples of experience. Historical events are observed, and inferences about historical processes are formed, but the paucity of historical events conspires against effective learning. We consider situations in which organizations seek to learn from history on the basis of very small samples of experience. For example: Ca.se L A military organization has rarely fought in a battle. Yet it wants to learn from its history how to improve its ability to engage in warfare.
Case 2. A business firm has little experience with foreign acquisitions. Yet it wants to learn from its history whether and how to make such investments.
Case 3. An airline rarely has fatal accidents. Yet it wants to learn from its history how to reduce the chances of such disasters.
Case 4. A business firm rarely

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