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ARGUMENT 1
The following appeared in a memo from the manager of Upper Cuts hair salon: “According to a nationwide demographic study, more and more people today are moving from suburbs to downtown areas. In order to boost sagging profits at UpperCuts, we should take advantage of this trend by relocating the salon from its current location in Apton’s suburban mall to downtown Aption while retaining the salon’s decidedly upscale ambiance. Besides, Hair-Dooz, our chief competitor at the mall, has just relocated downtown and is thriving at its new location, and the most prosperous hair salon in nearby Brainard is located in that city’s down town area. By emulating the locations of these two successful salons, UppperCuts is certain to attract more customers.” ANALYSIS Citing a general demographic trend and certain evidence about two other hair salons, the manager of UpperCuts (UC) concludes here that UC should relocate from suburban to downtown Apton in order to attract more customers and, in turn, improve its profitability. However, the manager’s argument relies on a series of unproven assumptions and is therefore unconvincing as it stands. To begin with, the argument assumes that Apton’s demographic trend reflects the national trend. Yet, the mere fact that one hair salon has moved downtown hardly suffices to infer any such trend in Apton; HairDooz might owe its success at its new location to factors unrelated to Apton’s demographics. Without better evidence of a demographic shift such trend in Apton. For that matter, the trend might be in the opposite direction, in which event the manager’s recommendation would amount to especially poor advice. Even if Apton’s demographics do reflect the national trend, it is unfair to assume that UC will attract more customers simply by relocating downtown. It is entirely possible that the types of people who prefer living in downtown areas tend not to patronize upscale salons. It is also possible

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