Decision Analysis I
Handout #16
November 8th, 2007
Case Study
Due: Friday November 30th, 2007
The case study will give you practice applying the concepts you are learning in MS&E 252. .
You are from the XYZ consulting company (you can create your own name). William Jaeger of
Freemark Abbey Winery has hired your company to help him make a production decision. A storm is approaching the winery and Jaeger is not sure if he should wait for the storm or harvest the grapes immediately. Sometimes after a warm rain the grapes are attacked by botrytis mold. This mold helps to produce botrytised Riesling, which is highly valued by wine connoisseurs.
Meeting with your TA
Teaching assistants will be available to meet groups between November 12th and November 16th.
Time and location will be made available on the announcement section of the website. This is an opportunity for groups to receive feedback and ask clarification questions. To make the most of this meeting, you should have assessed the decision basis, proposed a decision tree with numerical assessments, and a tentative decision diagram. Your effort and preparation for this meeting will count toward your case study grade.
Report
You must provide Mr. Jaeger with a report that summarizes your conclusions and recommendations.
Your report should consist of:
• A one-page executive summary will show your main assumptions and conclusions. It will be given to Mr. Jaeger himself.
• A series of slides (no more than 15) to support your conclusions
Please note that your executive summary/slides should highlight your most interesting and insightful results in an intuitive and readable fashion. Keep in mind that more information is not necessarily better. Mr. Jaeger is a busy individual who wants to make a quick and well informed decision. He expects you to respect his time and earn your salary by clearly identifying the important information so that he doesn’t have to do it himself. He