Conrail Case Study
Question 1
Railroading industry overview:
The Railroad revolution in the United States began in the early 1800s. The developed infrastructure was used for freight transportation business. In the mid-1800s the industry experienced explosive growth, followed by significant consolidation in 1870. The rail road companies initiated expansion through acquisitions in attempt to reduce marginal costs and increase their market share. As a result of this competition, a number of cartels were formed; therefore the federal government intervened and established regulation on railroad mergers, infrastructure construction and divestments. On the other hand, the government initiated enormous investments in highway infrastructure, which resulted in the emerging of the trucking industry. Together with innovations in motor and tire technologies, the trucking industry began gaining significant market share of the freight transportation business from the rail road companies. As a result, the six largest railroads in the Northeast filed for bankruptcy. In response to the failures, the Congress passed the Stagger’s Rail Act of 1980 in order to deregulate the railroad industry, which resumed the mergers and acquisitions activity. The following analysis will investigate the economics of the offer for Consolidated Rail Corporation (Conrail) by CSX Corporation (CSX) and Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk).
The stand-alone bidders, CSX and Norfolk would value the target, Conrail, based on its fundamentals, however if both bidders are present they would enter price wars and legal battles, therefore this would inflate the offered price for the target. In particular the acquirers have to take into account of the opportunity cost of losing the bidding war (i.e. losing significant proportion of their revenue going forward) as calculated in Question 3. According to our analysis, the value of opportunity cost of losing the bid war can be as high as 13% of total offer price (calculated in Q3). In
Railroading industry overview:
The Railroad revolution in the United States began in the early 1800s. The developed infrastructure was used for freight transportation business. In the mid-1800s the industry experienced explosive growth, followed by significant consolidation in 1870. The rail road companies initiated expansion through acquisitions in attempt to reduce marginal costs and increase their market share. As a result of this competition, a number of cartels were formed; therefore the federal government intervened and established regulation on railroad mergers, infrastructure construction and divestments. On the other hand, the government initiated enormous investments in highway infrastructure, which resulted in the emerging of the trucking industry. Together with innovations in motor and tire technologies, the trucking industry began gaining significant market share of the freight transportation business from the rail road companies. As a result, the six largest railroads in the Northeast filed for bankruptcy. In response to the failures, the Congress passed the Stagger’s Rail Act of 1980 in order to deregulate the railroad industry, which resumed the mergers and acquisitions activity. The following analysis will investigate the economics of the offer for Consolidated Rail Corporation (Conrail) by CSX Corporation (CSX) and Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk).
The stand-alone bidders, CSX and Norfolk would value the target, Conrail, based on its fundamentals, however if both bidders are present they would enter price wars and legal battles, therefore this would inflate the offered price for the target. In particular the acquirers have to take into account of the opportunity cost of losing the bidding war (i.e. losing significant proportion of their revenue going forward) as calculated in Question 3. According to our analysis, the value of opportunity cost of losing the bid war can be as high as 13% of total offer price (calculated in Q3). In