Desolation of Smaug

rrent population of 127 million will be 84 million in five decades’ time. The working-age population (15–64) will apparently fall by nearly half from today’s level of 80 million to 42 million. In short, 50 years from now, not only will the population have fallen dramatically but the labour-force population will have fallen even faster. The number of elderly people 65 and over will amount to 40 per cent of the population, causing substantial strain on Japan’s workers to sustain the non-working population.

For Japan, accumulating highly skilled foreign professionals has been more difficult than expected. This is made challenging because Japan has few features that can be considered appealing to foreigners as a migration destination, including a highly homogenous country with a language barrier that makes it difficult for migrants to have a rich social life.

In May 2012, looking to respond to its immigration shortfalls, Japan introduced the ‘points system for highly-skilled foreign professionals’, using Australia’s system as a role model. Points were calculated according to factors like age, previous work experience, academic qualifications, annual wage and passing the Japanese Language Proficiency Test. For people scoring above 70 points, immigration requirements were relaxed by softening conditions on receiving permanent residency and making it possible for immigrants to bring household help or parents with them.

The result was a failure, and the number of highly skilled foreign workers attracted by the policy amounted to merely one quarter of the planned 2000 per year. The Abe cabinet is trying to increase the number of highly skilled migrants by relaxing the conditions in the points system further, but at this stage it is impossible to judge whether this will have any meaningful effect.

This is not to say that it is impossible to increase migration, and one potential source of skilled migrants is those who already have a deep interest in Japan. The