Geopolitical Risk
A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk
Diplomacy
154Taylor
Taylor
FDPS
3
1
2004
10.1080/09592290490886883
39746
DIPLOMACY
xxxxx
0
& Francis
&and
FrancisTaylor
&
Statecraft
Inc.
STATECRAFT and Francis 325 Chestnut StreetPhiladelphiaPA191060959-2296
PAUL ORMEROD AND SHAUN RIORDAN
QUERY SHEET
Q1: AU: Pls. provide RRH.
FDPS_39704.fm Page 1 Thursday, October 28, 2004 5:09 PM
Diplomacy and Statecraft 15(4): 1–12, 2004
Copyright © 2004 Taylor & Francis
ISSN: 0959-2296
DOI:10.1080/09592290490886757
A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk
Diplomacy
154Taylor
Taylor
FDPS
1
2004
10.1080/09592290490886757
39704
DIPLOMACY
XXXXX
1
& Francis
&and
FrancisTaylor
&
Statecraft
Inc.
STATECRAFT and Francis 325 Chestnut StreetPhiladelphiaPA191060959-2296
PAUL ORMEROD AND SHAUN RIORDAN
Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An illustrative example examines the prospects for disintegration in China. Although highly simplified, this example shows how this technique is able to derive conclusions difficult or impossible to achieve through traditional analysis, and its potential for strategic decision makers, whether in the private or public sector.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the deeply inter-connected and inter-dependent world of the
21st Century, effective geo-political analysis is essential, both to governments and multi-national corporations. The speed with which information, and thus risk, flows through the global networks puts a premium on the ability to anticipate future developments and crises and build them into strategic decision making processes.
Diplomacy
154Taylor
Taylor
FDPS
3
1
2004
10.1080/09592290490886883
39746
DIPLOMACY
xxxxx
0
& Francis
&and
FrancisTaylor
&
Statecraft
Inc.
STATECRAFT and Francis 325 Chestnut StreetPhiladelphiaPA191060959-2296
PAUL ORMEROD AND SHAUN RIORDAN
QUERY SHEET
Q1: AU: Pls. provide RRH.
FDPS_39704.fm Page 1 Thursday, October 28, 2004 5:09 PM
Diplomacy and Statecraft 15(4): 1–12, 2004
Copyright © 2004 Taylor & Francis
ISSN: 0959-2296
DOI:10.1080/09592290490886757
A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk
Diplomacy
154Taylor
Taylor
FDPS
1
2004
10.1080/09592290490886757
39704
DIPLOMACY
XXXXX
1
& Francis
&and
FrancisTaylor
&
Statecraft
Inc.
STATECRAFT and Francis 325 Chestnut StreetPhiladelphiaPA191060959-2296
PAUL ORMEROD AND SHAUN RIORDAN
Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An illustrative example examines the prospects for disintegration in China. Although highly simplified, this example shows how this technique is able to derive conclusions difficult or impossible to achieve through traditional analysis, and its potential for strategic decision makers, whether in the private or public sector.
1. INTRODUCTION
In the deeply inter-connected and inter-dependent world of the
21st Century, effective geo-political analysis is essential, both to governments and multi-national corporations. The speed with which information, and thus risk, flows through the global networks puts a premium on the ability to anticipate future developments and crises and build them into strategic decision making processes.