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Grouthink in the War of Terror Marketing Book Case Study

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Grouthink in the War of Terror Marketing Book Case Study
Foreign Policy Analysis (2010) 6, 277–296

Groupthink, Iraq, and the War on Terror: Explaining US Policy Shift toward Iraq
Dina Badie University of Connecticut
Existing scholarship on the Iraq War decision-making process generally treats the event as a logical extension of pre-existing ideas and policies. This paper considers the Bush administration’s decision to absorb Iraq into the broader War on Terror as a deviation from long-held views of Saddam Hussein. I argue that the decision to incorporate Iraq into the wider post 9 ⁄ 11 mission was pathologically driven by groupthink, which caused a shift in the administration’s view of Saddam from a troubling dictator to an existential threat to US security. Therefore, groupthink can simultaneously explain the defects in the decision-making process and the shift from cautious restraint to accelerated urgency with respect to US relations with Iraq.

A wealth of literature has emerged claiming that the US invasion of Iraq was a logical extension of ideas and policies that predated 9 ⁄ 11. Cognitive and psychological explanations attribute the decision to personality profiles or individual and group level pathologies (Houghton 2008). Shannon and Keller (2007) examine Bush’s leadership style as a potential explanation for the US’ violation of international norms. For Kaufmann (2004), structural faults undermined the ‘‘marketplace of ideas,’’ allowing the administration to inflate the Iraqi threat. The international relations discipline also took up the question of the Iraq War, viewing it from the perspective of imperialism and hegemonic stability. For Cox (2004), the Bush Doctrine and the policies that followed cemented the neoconservative drive toward American domination in the post-Cold War world. Layne (2006) describes the post-9 ⁄ 11 grand strategy as one that finds it roots in American hegemony since the 1940s. While the academy generally explained the decision to invade Iraq in somewhat path dependent terms, an



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New York: Penguin. Gordon, Michael R., and Gen. Bernard Trainor. (2006) Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq. New York: Pantheon. t’Hart, Paul. (1990) Groupthink in Government: A Study of Small Groups and Policy Failure. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Houghton, David. (2008) Invading and Occupying Iraq: Some Insights from Political Psychology. Peace and Conflict 14 (2): 169–192. Hoyt, Paul D., and Jean A. Garrison. (1997) Political Manipulation within the Small Group: Foreign Policy Advisers in the Carter Administration. In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making, edited by Paul t’Hart, Erik K. Stern and Bengt Sundelius. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Janis, Irving. (1972) Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascos. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Jehr, Douglas, and David Sanger. (2004) Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions. 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Dewey, and Paul E. Simons. (February 7, 2003) Memo to Paula Dobriansky: Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs. Iraq Contingency Planning. Available at http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB163/iraq-state-03.pdf. (Accessed March 10, 2009). Mann, James. (2004) Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush’s War Cabinet. New York: Penguin Books. McCauley, Clark. (1989) The Nature of Social Influence in Groupthink: Compliance and Internalization. Journal of Personality and Psychology 57 (2): 250–260. NIC Report 1. (January, 2003) Regional Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq. Published as appendix in Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on PreWar Assessments about Post War Iraq. Available at http://intelligence.senate.gov/prewar.pdf. (Accessed March 10, 2009). NIC Report 2. (January, 2003) Principal Challenges in Post-Saddam Iraq. Published as appendix in Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on PreWar Assessments about Post War Iraq. Available at http://intelligence.senate.gov/prewar.pdf. (Accessed March 10, 2009). NIE Key Judgements. (2002) Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction. OUSDP. (September 12, 2002a) Presentation. The Case for Action. Available at http://www. waranddecision.com/docLib/20080403_TheCaseforAction.pdf. OUSDP. (February 21, 2002b) Memo to Paul Wolfowitz. Links between Al-Qaida and Iraq. Available at http://www.waranddecision.com/docLib/20080403_IraqAlQaeda.pdf. (Accessed March 10, 2009). Packer, George. (2006) The Assassin’s Gate: America in Iraq. New York: McMillan Press. PBS. (October 9, 2003) Frontline: Truth, War, and Consequences. Interview with Richard Perle. PBS. (June 20, 2006) Frontline: The Dark Side: The Oct ‘02 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). Interview with David Kay Pillar, Paul. (2006) Intelligence, Policy and the War in Iraq. Foreign Affairs 85 (2): 15–26. PNAC. (2000) Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century. Powell, Colin. (February 6, 2003) Remarks to the United Nationals Security Council. Available at http://www.cnn.com/2003/us/02/05/sprj.irq.powell.transcript/. (Accessed January 18, 2009). Prados, John. (2004) Hoodwinked: The Documents that Reveal How Bush Sold Us a War. New York: New Press. Raven, B. H. (1974) The Nixon Group. Journal of Social Issues 30: 297–320. Rumsfeld, Donald. (July 27, 2001) Memo to Condoleeza Rice. Iraq. Available at http://www. waranddecision.com/docLib/20080403_RumsfeldmemoIraq.pdf. (Accessed March 10, 2009). Rumsfeld, Donald. (April 11, 2003b) Department of Defense News Briefing. Available at http:// www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=2367. (Accessed March 10, 2009). Schafer, Mark, and Scott Crichlow. (1996) Antecedents of Groupthink: A Quantitative Study. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (3): 415–435. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. (September, 2006) Postwar Findings about Iraq’s WMD Programs and Links to Terrorism and How they Compare with Prewar Assessments. Available at http://intelligence.senate.gov/phaseiiaccuracy.pdf. (Accessed January 18, 2009). Shannon, Vaughn P., and Jonathan W. Keller. (2006) Leadership Style and International Norm Violation: The Case of the Iraq War. Foreign Policy Analysis 3 (1): 79–104. Sifry, Micah L., and Christopher Cerf, Eds. (2003). Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions. New York: Simon and Schuster. Silberman, Laurence H., and Charles S. Robb. (March 31, 2005) Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. Available at http:// govinfo.library.unt.edu/wmd/report/wmd_report.pdf. (Accessed February 10, 2009). Smith, Steve. (1985) Groupthink and the Hostage Rescue Mission. British Journal of Political Science 15 (1): 117–123. Stern, Eric K. (1997) Probing the Plausibility of Newgroup Syndrome: Kennedy and the Bay of Pigs. In Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policy-making, edited by Paul t’Hart, Erik K. Stern and Bengt Sundelius. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. 296 Groupthink, Iraq, and the War on Terror Susan, Goldenberg. (2004) Bush Ignored Warnings on Iraq Insurgency Threat Before Invasion. The Guardian: September 29. Suskind, Ron. (2004) The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O’Neill. New York: Simon and Schuster. Tenet, George. (October 7, 2002) Letter to Senator Bob Graham. In The Iraq War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions, edited by Micah L Sifry and Christopher Cerf. New York: Simon and Schuster. Tenet, George. (2007) At the Center of the Storm: By Years at the CIA. New York: Harper Collins. Tetlock, Phillip E. (1979) Identifying Victims of Groupthink From Public Statements of Decision Makers. 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