Hsm/260 Week 5 Checkpoint

Exercise 9.1

The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years:

20X1 $5,250,000
20X2 $5,500,000
20X3 $6,000,000
20X4 $6,750,000 Moving Averages
20X2-X4 $18,250,000 / 3 = $6,083,333

Weighted Moving Averages
Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score
20X2 $5,500,000 1 $5,500,000
20X3 $6,000,000 2 $12,000,000
20X4 $6,750,000 3 $20,250,000 __ ___________ 6 $37,750,000
20X5 $37,750,000 /6 = $6,291,667

Exponential Smoothing
NF = $6,300,000 + 0.95($6,750,000 - $6,300,000) = $6,300,000 + 0.95(45,000) = $6,300,000 + (42,750) = $6,342,750

I would rather use moving averages, weighted moving averages, or exponential smoothing because I can better understand how the formulas and numbers turn out and how you get the answers from them. Even though the Time regression is supposed to be easier you are still putting a lot of faith in a computer. Plus I really had a hard time understanding it.

Exercise 9.3

The following data represent total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years:

20X1 $15,000,000
20X2 $14,250,000
20X3 $14,000,000
20X4 $13,500,000

Moving Averages
20X2-X4 $41,750,000 / 3 = $13,916,667

Weighted Moving Averages
Fiscal Year Expenses Weight Weighted Score
20X2 $14,250,000 1 $14,250,000
20X3 $14,000,000 2 $28,000,000
20X4 $13,500,000 3 $40,500,000 __ ___________ 6 $82,750,000 20X5 $82,750,000/6 = $13,791,667 Exponential Smoothing
NF = $13,000,000 + 0.95($13,500,000 - $13,000,000) = $13,000,000 + 0.95(500,000) = $13,000,000 + (475,000) = $13,475,000 I would rather use moving averages, weighted moving averages, or exponential smoothing because I can better understand how the formulas and numbers turn out and how you get the