India Next 5 Years
The next five years | | | |
All of us acknowledge that India is changing and that the pace of change is accelerating. We also know that India (and the Indian economy) will be very different five years from now in more ways than one. In the context of private consumption, how much India would be different in 2015 can be best understood if we look at some of the data relating to where India was just five years ago, i.e. in 2005.
India’s GDP in 2005 was about $785 billion, which has increased to almost $1,400 billion in 2010 and should cross $2,000 billion by 2015, implying that Indian economy would have added almost one India of 2005 to its size in the next five years. This spectacular growth, on a relatively high base of almost $1.4 trillion, translates into unprecedented opportunities and greater challenges than what India has faced in the past. Let us look at 2005 and hen try to crystal ball 2015 for a few consumption categories. | | | | |
In 2005, our domestic market for four-wheelers was just about 1.1 million vehicles. It will cross 2 million in 2010 and touch 4 million by 2015 (including as many as 110,000 in the luxury and premium segments). There were less than 100,000 users of smart-phones in 2005, about 25 million in 2010, and perhaps as many as 225 million in 2015. From a user base of about 8 million laptop users in 2010, there could be as many as 50 million by 2015. There were less than 25 million Internet users in 2005, increasing to about 75 million in 2010, and projected to grow to more than 250 million by 2015. From less than 250 multiplex screens in 2005, to about 800 in 2010, the count could cross 2,000 by 2015. Similar increases in multiples ranging from 2x-10x could happen across many consumer product categories.
The opportunity side, therefore, should be quite obvious and the message for all businesses is really to put less relevance to what happened in their sectors and segments in the last five or ten years, and
All of us acknowledge that India is changing and that the pace of change is accelerating. We also know that India (and the Indian economy) will be very different five years from now in more ways than one. In the context of private consumption, how much India would be different in 2015 can be best understood if we look at some of the data relating to where India was just five years ago, i.e. in 2005.
India’s GDP in 2005 was about $785 billion, which has increased to almost $1,400 billion in 2010 and should cross $2,000 billion by 2015, implying that Indian economy would have added almost one India of 2005 to its size in the next five years. This spectacular growth, on a relatively high base of almost $1.4 trillion, translates into unprecedented opportunities and greater challenges than what India has faced in the past. Let us look at 2005 and hen try to crystal ball 2015 for a few consumption categories. | | | | |
In 2005, our domestic market for four-wheelers was just about 1.1 million vehicles. It will cross 2 million in 2010 and touch 4 million by 2015 (including as many as 110,000 in the luxury and premium segments). There were less than 100,000 users of smart-phones in 2005, about 25 million in 2010, and perhaps as many as 225 million in 2015. From a user base of about 8 million laptop users in 2010, there could be as many as 50 million by 2015. There were less than 25 million Internet users in 2005, increasing to about 75 million in 2010, and projected to grow to more than 250 million by 2015. From less than 250 multiplex screens in 2005, to about 800 in 2010, the count could cross 2,000 by 2015. Similar increases in multiples ranging from 2x-10x could happen across many consumer product categories.
The opportunity side, therefore, should be quite obvious and the message for all businesses is really to put less relevance to what happened in their sectors and segments in the last five or ten years, and