Ireland Flood Case Study
MARCH | 2011
Queensland floods - Impact on Global Commodity Markets
“Mining and agriculture - Queensland’s top export industries”
Queensland’s share
...of Australia’s economy
19%
Australia’s Outlook
GDP rise in 2010-11
...of global coking coal exports
56%
...of Australia’s fruit and vegetable production
28%
4.25%
1
Reconstruction cost
$19.7bn
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2011. All Rights Reserved
Summary Australia is suffering from the severe economic impact of the worst floods in Queensland in almost 40 years. Its coal exports have been especially hit hard. Australia is the world’s largest coal exporter; it accounts for about 56% of global coal exports. Almost a third of the world’s coking coal comes from …show more content…
the Bowen Basin in Queensland. The torrential rains affected about 30,000 properties in Queensland. They led to the closure of coal mines, disrupted rail transportation, damaged crops, and slowed industrial output. Flooding in Queensland The eastern states of Australia witnessed heavy rainfall during H2 2010 and early 2011 due to the development of a La Nina weather pattern and Cyclone Tasha in December. Queensland, including Brisbane, was most affected, although there was flooding in parts of Victoria and New South Wales as well. However, Australia’s GDP is expected to rise during Q2 2011 due to rebuilding.
Economists at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch (BoAML) have reduced their 2011 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.0% and hiked their CPI forecast to 3.5% from 3.1%.
As a result of the recent cyclone and oods, there could be a fall of 7,000 million dollars worth of coal and agricultural product exports.
According to the latest labor reports released by the Australia Bureau of Statistics, 24,000 jobs were created in the month of January 2011. In Queensland, the jobless rate fell to 5.6% in January from 6% in December 2010.
“This is a pretty healthy labor market and it’s getting tighter and we are getting pretty close to full employment,” said Senior Economist Su Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets.
Impact on Commodities Mining 4 he recent flooding in Eastern Australia is expected 4 he northeastern region produces about 80% of the T T to reduce agriculture production by USD 500-600 country’s coking coal. million metric tons this year. The production of 4 he areas affected by floods account for 40-45% of T vegetables, fruits, cotton, grain sorghum, and some global exports of coking coal, which is the key raw winter crops as likely to be severely affected. material for steel making. 4 he floods swamped the mines in the state of T 4 he prices of coking coal increased as the result of T Queensland, halting operations that produce 35% the disruption and are expected to average about of Australia’s estimated 259 million metric tons of USD 260 per metric ton in 2011. exportable coal. The floods severely affected the coal mining industry Economic Impact and have impacted about 40 mines in Queensland. Most Commodities make up a large part of Australia’s companies declared force majeure on contracts, as the USD 1 trillion economy. Queensland accounts for floods forced them to halt production and resulted in approximately 19% of Australia’s economic output. logistical problems. It is estimated that this disruption The floods devastated huge areas of the country, which could remove over 5% of coking coal from the global may take many years to rebuild and is likely to have a market this year. significant impact on the economy. It is estimated that the cost of cleanup and rebuilding will total as much as USD 19.7 billion.
“The reconstruction effort is looking set to be larger and larger and could make a significant contribution to growth as early as the second quarter,” said Michael Workman, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank.
Australia’s GDP is expected to grow at 4.25% this year. However, its GDP is projected to contract by about 1% in the current quarter because of weather damage and the fall in coal and agriculture production. The effect of the floods is likely to be felt most during H1 2011.
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2011. All Rights Reserved 2
More than 15 million metric tons of coal is typically Impact on Coal Prices shipped every week.
However, many shipments were lost 4 he floods are expected to propel coking coal prices T during the floods in December. Abbot Point, Dalrymple to an average of about USD 260 per metric ton in Bay, Hay Point, and RG Tanna are some of the major 2011, which is about 25% more than the expected export terminals that were affected. annual increase in coking coal prices. As a result, the cost of steel products, like HR and CR coils, is likely to increase. In addition, the hike in coking coal prices is expected to support the price hike of other raw materials used as substitutes for steel making, such as ferrous scrap and pig iron. 4 he supply shortage of coking coal in Q2 2011 is T likely to result in about a 8-10% rise in global coking coal prices compared to Q1 2011. This price rise is expected to be passed on to end users in time. 4 he prices of global HRC and CRC are expected to T increase by about 5-6% in Q2 2011, about 1-2% higher than the expected price of flat products for the quarter. 4 he flooding in Queensland has had an indirect impact T on the prices of iron ore, another major raw material used for steelmaking. The floods affected freight The BDI, which tracks the international shipping rates of charges. As a result, FOB based prices for iron ore are various dry bulk cargoes, dropped by 20 points to 1,064 gaining more importance. The impact of the floods on points on February 2, 2011. This decline was the first drop the supply of iron ore is projected to be low, as there by a large margin in the last two years. The Capsize Index, are few ores in the flood affected region. BACI, fell by 1.74%, indicating that there was a fall in the 4 he profitability of non-integrated steelmakers is T rate of capsizes, which are typically used for bulk iron ore likely to be affected in Q2 2011 due to the high cost and coking coal transportation. This decline was primarily of
production. due to weather related problems in Australia and other Impact on Aluminum Prices parts of the world. 4 evere flooding in Queensland caused the Rio Tinto S Companies Affected Group, the third largest mining company, to declare The major companies that were affected by the floods were force majeure on the January 13, 2011 for its aluminium Anglo American, Aquila Resources, Macarthur Coal, Rio supplies from its Alcan unit’s Boyne Smelters Ltd, the Tinto, BHP Peabody, Wesfarmers, and Xstrata. Together, , largest aluminium smelter in Australia. they have lost USD 2.33 billion in sales. In addition, T production stoppages resulted in about USD 608 million a 4 he floods cut off rail and road access between Gladstone and Brisbane. However, the force majeure week in lost revenue. was terminated by the company on January 20, 2011. Countries Affected An extended force majeure at the Boyne smelter unit The key buyers of coal from Queensland (i.e. Japan and could have driven up aluminum, prices which were Europe, followed by India, Korea, and Taiwan) were already on the rise. However, this effect was prevented indirectly affected by the floods. Some of these countries as the force majeure was cancelled. have started to investigate base material supplies from 4 he floods and cyclone disrupted the weather and T other regions in order to overcome supply shortages. caused the smelting of aluminium to be stopped. Countries Coal Imports from Australia The port of Brisbane (from where millions of tons of Japan 80% aluminium are exported) was closed until flood related currents subsided. Taiwan 80% South Korea 63% India 37%
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2010. All Rights Reserved 2011. 3
Impact on the Indian Steel Market Coking coal accounts for about 45% of the raw material cost for steel manufacturers in India. Rising coal prices are expected to affect the profit margins of these producers and support an increase in iron ore prices. The effect of coal prices is expected to have an impact when steel makers sign a contract with mining companies for Q2 2011. The steel prices in India are expected to increase by USD 20-30 per metric ton in current quarter. Australia is likely to impact the profit margins of Indian steel companies in the fiscal third quarter. This trend has already started with companies like SAIL and JSW Steel. The markets have already shown signs of a fall in profits for most steel stocks, including Steel, Bhushan and Uttam Galva Steel. Agriculture 4 ueensland supplies 28% of Australia’s fruit and vegetables. It also produces 95% of the country’s annual sugar Q crop. 4 ustralia is the leading exporter of sugar in the global market A The floods caused widespread damage across many agricultural industries, including food, crops, and livestock. The area affected accounts for about 33% of the country’s sugar cane production. Food prices have been rising due to supply disruptions in Russia, Pakistan, and now Australia. The supply of wheat and cotton are already at critical levels. The exports of Australia’s wheat, sugar, and cotton are expected to be hit by the floods. Due to the floods, sugar prices climbed to a 30-year high across the world. Losses from sugar cane are estimated to reach USD 505 million.
Conclusion The recent floods resulted in substantial damage to the Australian economy, which could force the government to make difficult decisions about rebuilding Queensland. Cyclone Tasha, a category 5 cyclone, was the most powerful to hit Australia in 100 years. Losses are estimated to total USD 3.54 billion, of which the agriculture and mining industries will face losses of USD 2.03 billion. The tourism industry is projected to suffer USD 1 billion in losses as well. Queensland’s top export industries are expected to take months to recover from the impact of the floods.
Author: Suchitra Damodaran | Senior Domain Lead at Beroe Inc
Sources: www.adl.brs.gov.au www.oliveoiltimes.com www.reuters.com www.crisil.com www.steelguru.com
Disclaimer : Strictly no photocopying or redistribution is allowed without prior written consent from Beroe Inc. The information contained in this publication was derived from carefully selected sources. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. Beroe Inc accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. For more information, please contact info@beroe-inc.com.
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2011. All Rights Reserved
4
Queensland floods - Impact on Global Commodity Markets
“Mining and agriculture - Queensland’s top export industries”
Queensland’s share
...of Australia’s economy
19%
Australia’s Outlook
GDP rise in 2010-11
...of global coking coal exports
56%
...of Australia’s fruit and vegetable production
28%
4.25%
1
Reconstruction cost
$19.7bn
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2011. All Rights Reserved
Summary Australia is suffering from the severe economic impact of the worst floods in Queensland in almost 40 years. Its coal exports have been especially hit hard. Australia is the world’s largest coal exporter; it accounts for about 56% of global coal exports. Almost a third of the world’s coking coal comes from …show more content…
the Bowen Basin in Queensland. The torrential rains affected about 30,000 properties in Queensland. They led to the closure of coal mines, disrupted rail transportation, damaged crops, and slowed industrial output. Flooding in Queensland The eastern states of Australia witnessed heavy rainfall during H2 2010 and early 2011 due to the development of a La Nina weather pattern and Cyclone Tasha in December. Queensland, including Brisbane, was most affected, although there was flooding in parts of Victoria and New South Wales as well. However, Australia’s GDP is expected to rise during Q2 2011 due to rebuilding.
Economists at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch (BoAML) have reduced their 2011 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.0% and hiked their CPI forecast to 3.5% from 3.1%.
As a result of the recent cyclone and oods, there could be a fall of 7,000 million dollars worth of coal and agricultural product exports.
According to the latest labor reports released by the Australia Bureau of Statistics, 24,000 jobs were created in the month of January 2011. In Queensland, the jobless rate fell to 5.6% in January from 6% in December 2010.
“This is a pretty healthy labor market and it’s getting tighter and we are getting pretty close to full employment,” said Senior Economist Su Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets.
Impact on Commodities Mining 4 he recent flooding in Eastern Australia is expected 4 he northeastern region produces about 80% of the T T to reduce agriculture production by USD 500-600 country’s coking coal. million metric tons this year. The production of 4 he areas affected by floods account for 40-45% of T vegetables, fruits, cotton, grain sorghum, and some global exports of coking coal, which is the key raw winter crops as likely to be severely affected. material for steel making. 4 he floods swamped the mines in the state of T 4 he prices of coking coal increased as the result of T Queensland, halting operations that produce 35% the disruption and are expected to average about of Australia’s estimated 259 million metric tons of USD 260 per metric ton in 2011. exportable coal. The floods severely affected the coal mining industry Economic Impact and have impacted about 40 mines in Queensland. Most Commodities make up a large part of Australia’s companies declared force majeure on contracts, as the USD 1 trillion economy. Queensland accounts for floods forced them to halt production and resulted in approximately 19% of Australia’s economic output. logistical problems. It is estimated that this disruption The floods devastated huge areas of the country, which could remove over 5% of coking coal from the global may take many years to rebuild and is likely to have a market this year. significant impact on the economy. It is estimated that the cost of cleanup and rebuilding will total as much as USD 19.7 billion.
“The reconstruction effort is looking set to be larger and larger and could make a significant contribution to growth as early as the second quarter,” said Michael Workman, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank.
Australia’s GDP is expected to grow at 4.25% this year. However, its GDP is projected to contract by about 1% in the current quarter because of weather damage and the fall in coal and agriculture production. The effect of the floods is likely to be felt most during H1 2011.
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2011. All Rights Reserved 2
More than 15 million metric tons of coal is typically Impact on Coal Prices shipped every week.
However, many shipments were lost 4 he floods are expected to propel coking coal prices T during the floods in December. Abbot Point, Dalrymple to an average of about USD 260 per metric ton in Bay, Hay Point, and RG Tanna are some of the major 2011, which is about 25% more than the expected export terminals that were affected. annual increase in coking coal prices. As a result, the cost of steel products, like HR and CR coils, is likely to increase. In addition, the hike in coking coal prices is expected to support the price hike of other raw materials used as substitutes for steel making, such as ferrous scrap and pig iron. 4 he supply shortage of coking coal in Q2 2011 is T likely to result in about a 8-10% rise in global coking coal prices compared to Q1 2011. This price rise is expected to be passed on to end users in time. 4 he prices of global HRC and CRC are expected to T increase by about 5-6% in Q2 2011, about 1-2% higher than the expected price of flat products for the quarter. 4 he flooding in Queensland has had an indirect impact T on the prices of iron ore, another major raw material used for steelmaking. The floods affected freight The BDI, which tracks the international shipping rates of charges. As a result, FOB based prices for iron ore are various dry bulk cargoes, dropped by 20 points to 1,064 gaining more importance. The impact of the floods on points on February 2, 2011. This decline was the first drop the supply of iron ore is projected to be low, as there by a large margin in the last two years. The Capsize Index, are few ores in the flood affected region. BACI, fell by 1.74%, indicating that there was a fall in the 4 he profitability of non-integrated steelmakers is T rate of capsizes, which are typically used for bulk iron ore likely to be affected in Q2 2011 due to the high cost and coking coal transportation. This decline was primarily of
production. due to weather related problems in Australia and other Impact on Aluminum Prices parts of the world. 4 evere flooding in Queensland caused the Rio Tinto S Companies Affected Group, the third largest mining company, to declare The major companies that were affected by the floods were force majeure on the January 13, 2011 for its aluminium Anglo American, Aquila Resources, Macarthur Coal, Rio supplies from its Alcan unit’s Boyne Smelters Ltd, the Tinto, BHP Peabody, Wesfarmers, and Xstrata. Together, , largest aluminium smelter in Australia. they have lost USD 2.33 billion in sales. In addition, T production stoppages resulted in about USD 608 million a 4 he floods cut off rail and road access between Gladstone and Brisbane. However, the force majeure week in lost revenue. was terminated by the company on January 20, 2011. Countries Affected An extended force majeure at the Boyne smelter unit The key buyers of coal from Queensland (i.e. Japan and could have driven up aluminum, prices which were Europe, followed by India, Korea, and Taiwan) were already on the rise. However, this effect was prevented indirectly affected by the floods. Some of these countries as the force majeure was cancelled. have started to investigate base material supplies from 4 he floods and cyclone disrupted the weather and T other regions in order to overcome supply shortages. caused the smelting of aluminium to be stopped. Countries Coal Imports from Australia The port of Brisbane (from where millions of tons of Japan 80% aluminium are exported) was closed until flood related currents subsided. Taiwan 80% South Korea 63% India 37%
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2010. All Rights Reserved 2011. 3
Impact on the Indian Steel Market Coking coal accounts for about 45% of the raw material cost for steel manufacturers in India. Rising coal prices are expected to affect the profit margins of these producers and support an increase in iron ore prices. The effect of coal prices is expected to have an impact when steel makers sign a contract with mining companies for Q2 2011. The steel prices in India are expected to increase by USD 20-30 per metric ton in current quarter. Australia is likely to impact the profit margins of Indian steel companies in the fiscal third quarter. This trend has already started with companies like SAIL and JSW Steel. The markets have already shown signs of a fall in profits for most steel stocks, including Steel, Bhushan and Uttam Galva Steel. Agriculture 4 ueensland supplies 28% of Australia’s fruit and vegetables. It also produces 95% of the country’s annual sugar Q crop. 4 ustralia is the leading exporter of sugar in the global market A The floods caused widespread damage across many agricultural industries, including food, crops, and livestock. The area affected accounts for about 33% of the country’s sugar cane production. Food prices have been rising due to supply disruptions in Russia, Pakistan, and now Australia. The supply of wheat and cotton are already at critical levels. The exports of Australia’s wheat, sugar, and cotton are expected to be hit by the floods. Due to the floods, sugar prices climbed to a 30-year high across the world. Losses from sugar cane are estimated to reach USD 505 million.
Conclusion The recent floods resulted in substantial damage to the Australian economy, which could force the government to make difficult decisions about rebuilding Queensland. Cyclone Tasha, a category 5 cyclone, was the most powerful to hit Australia in 100 years. Losses are estimated to total USD 3.54 billion, of which the agriculture and mining industries will face losses of USD 2.03 billion. The tourism industry is projected to suffer USD 1 billion in losses as well. Queensland’s top export industries are expected to take months to recover from the impact of the floods.
Author: Suchitra Damodaran | Senior Domain Lead at Beroe Inc
Sources: www.adl.brs.gov.au www.oliveoiltimes.com www.reuters.com www.crisil.com www.steelguru.com
Disclaimer : Strictly no photocopying or redistribution is allowed without prior written consent from Beroe Inc. The information contained in this publication was derived from carefully selected sources. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. Beroe Inc accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. For more information, please contact info@beroe-inc.com.
Copyright © Beroe Inc, 2011. All Rights Reserved
4