Key Financial Forecasting of Trust Bank Limited
1.0 Literature Review
Regression analysis is a statistical tool with the help of which we are in a position to estimate (or predict) the unknown values of one variable from unknown values of another variable. With the help of regression analysis we can find out the average probable change in one variable given a certain amount of change in another. In fact it provides estimates of values of the dependent variables from the values of independent variables. (S.P.Gupta , M.P.Gupta, 2003)
Time series analysis is the most popular method of business forecasting because it helps in understanding of past behavior, it helps in planning future operations, it helps in evaluating current accomplishments above all it facilitates comparison. ( S.P.Gupta, M.P.Gupta, 2003)
The basic objective of the study of trend is to predict the future behavior of the data. If a trend can be determined, then the rate of change or progress can be ascertained and tentative estimates concerning the future be made accordingly.
Mathematical methods of fitting trend are not foolproof – in fact, they can be a source of some of the most serious errors that are made in statistical work. They should never be used unless rigidly controlled by a separate logical analysis. Trend fitting depends upon the judgment of the statistician, and a skillfully made freehand sketch may often be more practical than a refined mathematical formula. (Riggleman, Frisbee, ).
The straight line trends indicate the increase or decrease of a time series at constant amount but in many cases, straight line can not fit the data adequately. In such a case better description of the time series can be attained by non-linear curve rather than straight line. The methods of measuring non-linear trends are: graphic method, moving average method, second degree polynomial equation method and so on. . ( S.P.Gupta, M.P.Gupta: 2003).
Moreover, the trends discussed so far were plotted on arithmetic scales. Trends may also
Regression analysis is a statistical tool with the help of which we are in a position to estimate (or predict) the unknown values of one variable from unknown values of another variable. With the help of regression analysis we can find out the average probable change in one variable given a certain amount of change in another. In fact it provides estimates of values of the dependent variables from the values of independent variables. (S.P.Gupta , M.P.Gupta, 2003)
Time series analysis is the most popular method of business forecasting because it helps in understanding of past behavior, it helps in planning future operations, it helps in evaluating current accomplishments above all it facilitates comparison. ( S.P.Gupta, M.P.Gupta, 2003)
The basic objective of the study of trend is to predict the future behavior of the data. If a trend can be determined, then the rate of change or progress can be ascertained and tentative estimates concerning the future be made accordingly.
Mathematical methods of fitting trend are not foolproof – in fact, they can be a source of some of the most serious errors that are made in statistical work. They should never be used unless rigidly controlled by a separate logical analysis. Trend fitting depends upon the judgment of the statistician, and a skillfully made freehand sketch may often be more practical than a refined mathematical formula. (Riggleman, Frisbee, ).
The straight line trends indicate the increase or decrease of a time series at constant amount but in many cases, straight line can not fit the data adequately. In such a case better description of the time series can be attained by non-linear curve rather than straight line. The methods of measuring non-linear trends are: graphic method, moving average method, second degree polynomial equation method and so on. . ( S.P.Gupta, M.P.Gupta: 2003).
Moreover, the trends discussed so far were plotted on arithmetic scales. Trends may also
References: 1. D. Mason, A. Lind. 1999, Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics,10th edition, Jeffrey J. Shelstad, United States of America 2. SP.Gupta, M.P.Gupta. 2005-06, Business Statistics, 11th edition, Sultan Chand & Sons, New Delhi. 3. Rig Leman and Frisbee. 2003, Business Statistics, Sultan Chand & Sons, New Delhi. 4. Trust Bank Ltd, Annual Report 2005 5. Trust Bank Ltd, Annual Report 2006 6. Trust Bank Ltd, Annual Report 2007 7. Trust Bank Ltd, Annual Report 2008 8. Trust Bank Ltd, Annual Report 2009 9. http://www.bangladesh-bank.org 10. http://www.trustbank.com.bd