Moore Law
If Moore 's law reaches the borders of technical feasibility - what comes next?
“Technology is like a fish. The longer it stays on the shelf, the less desirable it becomes.” Andrew Heller
In this fast hi-tech era, every one expects continuous technological progress but no one can predict hundred percent what comes next? When people think of the future period, they assume that the current rate of progress will be continued for future periods. But when the history of technology is assessed seriously it shows that technological changes are exponential. Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process and technology is one of its primary example.[1] A new technology would be of interest to semiconductor industry if it addresses fully the problems faced by chip manufacturing companies. There is a need of revolutionary technologies that produce faster and smaller logic and memory, reduce fabrication complexity, save manufacturing time from days to weeks, and reduce the consumption of natural resources. When Moor’s law will be approached towards its fundamental materials science limits, a new technology will be only solution. [2] This essay discusses briefly about Moore’s law, its future limitations and new technological trends after Moore’s Law. The new technologies such as molecular computing, quantum computing and new materials such as carbon nano-tubes will be the next candidates of 6th paradigm after current silicon technology. [3]
Paradigm is an approach to solve a problem. It provides exponential growth until it reaches to its last limits. When this happens the new paradigm replaces the old one and we call this a paradigm shift. In computation history of exponential growth, this has already happened four times. Integrated circuit which we called Moore’s Law is the fifth Paradigm. The first paradigm was Electromagnetic calculators, flowed by second Relay-based computers, then third Vacuum tubes and fourth Discrete transistors.[4] Every paradigm
“Technology is like a fish. The longer it stays on the shelf, the less desirable it becomes.” Andrew Heller
In this fast hi-tech era, every one expects continuous technological progress but no one can predict hundred percent what comes next? When people think of the future period, they assume that the current rate of progress will be continued for future periods. But when the history of technology is assessed seriously it shows that technological changes are exponential. Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process and technology is one of its primary example.[1] A new technology would be of interest to semiconductor industry if it addresses fully the problems faced by chip manufacturing companies. There is a need of revolutionary technologies that produce faster and smaller logic and memory, reduce fabrication complexity, save manufacturing time from days to weeks, and reduce the consumption of natural resources. When Moor’s law will be approached towards its fundamental materials science limits, a new technology will be only solution. [2] This essay discusses briefly about Moore’s law, its future limitations and new technological trends after Moore’s Law. The new technologies such as molecular computing, quantum computing and new materials such as carbon nano-tubes will be the next candidates of 6th paradigm after current silicon technology. [3]
Paradigm is an approach to solve a problem. It provides exponential growth until it reaches to its last limits. When this happens the new paradigm replaces the old one and we call this a paradigm shift. In computation history of exponential growth, this has already happened four times. Integrated circuit which we called Moore’s Law is the fifth Paradigm. The first paradigm was Electromagnetic calculators, flowed by second Relay-based computers, then third Vacuum tubes and fourth Discrete transistors.[4] Every paradigm
References: 1. Living with the Genie: Essays on Technology and the Quest for Human Mastery by Alan Lightman,Daniel Sarewitz,Christina Dessers by Alan Lightman,Daniel Sarewitz,Christina Desser Page 41 2. Molecular electronics: commercial insights, chemistry, devices, architecture ...by James M. Tour Page 32 3. Higher education in the digital age: technology issues and strategies for ...by James J. Duderstadt,Daniel Ewell Atkins,Douglas E. Van Houweling Page 43 4. The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology by Ray Kurzweil Page 434 5. http://www.ghandchi.com/iranscope/Anthology/KurzweilDrexler.htm from the heading ‘The Law of accelerating Returns’ 6. Nanotechnology: societal implications, Band 1 by Mihail C. Roco,William Sims Bainbridge,National Science Foundation (U.S.),World Technology Evaluation Center Page 46,47,48 7. Molecular Electronics Materials, Devices and Applications by Antoine Jalabert,Amara Amara,Fabien Clermidy Page 4,5 ----------------------- 2