Production Planning and Control

Introduction The Delphi method was developed in the 1950’s with the purpose of soliciting expert opinion in order to reach consensus (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963, p. 458). It was so named because it was originally developed as a systematic, interactive means of forecasting or prediction, much like ancient Grecians came to the Oracle at Delphi to hear of their fortunes. The approach relies on a collection of opinions from a panel of experts in a domain of real-world knowledge, and aggregates those decisions to reach consensus around a topic. It is different from traditional surveys in that it is an attempt to identify what could, or should be, as opposed to what is (Miller, 2006). Delphi studies are generally used to (Delbecq, Van de Ven & Gustafson, 1975, pg. 11): •Determine or develop a range of possible program alternatives •Explore or expose underlying assumptions or information leading to different judgments •Seek out information which may generate a consensus on the part of the respondent group •Correlate informed judgments on a topic spanning a wide range of disciplines •Educate the respondent group as to the diverse and interrelated aspects of the topic Some of the other key features in Delphi survey research is that the participants are unknown to each other and that the process is iterative, with each subsequent round being derived from the results of the previous one. In other words, each participant receives a summary of the range of opinions from the previous round, and is given an opportunity to reassess their own opinions based on the feedback of other panelists. This controlled feedback helps to reduce the effect of noise, defined as communication which distorts the data as it relates to individual interests and bias, rather than problem solving. The feedback occurs in the form of a summary of the prior iteration, distributed to the panel as an opportunity to generate additional insights and clarify what was captured in the previous