Program Evaluation and Review Technique (Pert) Scheduling with Resource Constraints Using Qualitative Simulation Graphs (Qsg)

MGT5088 CASE TWO - RISK ASSESSMENT REPORT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Scheduling with Resource Constraints Using Qualitative Simulation Graphs (QSG)

Prepared by: Susan H. Davenport
July 6th, 2009

This report assesses the risk in the application of the Qualitative Simulation Graph Methodology (QSGM) model that addresses Program Evaluation and Review

Technique (PERT) scheduling-with-resources problem. PERT scheduling is a network

Analysis technique based on mathematical equations known as Runge-Kutta that

establishes and weights best and worst-case scenarios against the most likely set of

occurrences, but PERT does not factor in the most likely estimates that could leave the

project manager with a programmatic risk.

The QSGM model, used to mitigate the possible programmatic risk, is a general purpose

Qualitative Discrete-Event Simulation (QDES) framework that can be used for any type of

Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) problem. QSGM adds a coverage property that consists

of every possible scenario known to a scheduling problem, including both best and worst-

case scenarios. The QSGM’s coverage property defines any possible sequence of events

with all possible sequence of events with specific timing. Due to the technical risk of the

large number of possible scenarios generated from ASGM, the application is more reliable

when applied to a fixed time horizon or problems analyzed at a strategic level. Since the

activity-on-arc PERT network fits the fixed time horizon and more strategic class of

problems, the QSGM model addresses the known coverage property shortcoming with

PERT (best and worst-case scenarios). The QSGM model generates an opportunity event

since the model generates all possible scenarios in the project schedule and the

corresponding