Revenue-Recognition Problems in the Communications Equipment Industry
Revenue-Recognition Problems in the Communications Equipment Industry
1) In late 2000, Lucent announced that revenues would be adjusted downwards by $679m as a result of revenue recognition problems. Yet the firm’s market capitalization plummeted by
$24.7bn. Why do you think the market reacted so negatively to Lucent’s announcements of the problems? The large drop in market capitalization is probably due to several factors. Historically, Lucent had successfully met analysts’ projections for 15 consecutive quarters before announcing, in
January 2000, a major shortfall in profits relative to previous expectations. In June, the quarterly balance sheet reported an operating loss of $301m (for the first time since 1998) while warning of weaker profits in Q4. In addition, the revenue recognition issues announced by the new CEO appointed in October were surely perceived as an indication that Lucent’s management was managing revenues and therefore a possible cause of a future fall in revenues.
This led investors to modify their earnings expectations in light of the revenue-recognition problems faced by the firm. Since a company’s share price reflects forecasts of future cash flows, and Lucent’s Q3 and Q4 revenues were substantially written-down, investors would rationally expect future earnings to be affected as well. In an efficient market environment, the $24.7bn in lost market capitalization would equal the discounted value of these expected cash flows.
However, it is also likely that the repeated missed expectations caused an overreaction by investors, as the company was forced to revise its revenues downward two times over the span of two quarters. This probably raised fears in the market of more widespread problems with the firm’s accounting practices.
It should also be kept in mind that the Internet bubble had just burst and a technology related company announcing an operating loss and lower revenues could easily cause a panic selloff
among
1) In late 2000, Lucent announced that revenues would be adjusted downwards by $679m as a result of revenue recognition problems. Yet the firm’s market capitalization plummeted by
$24.7bn. Why do you think the market reacted so negatively to Lucent’s announcements of the problems? The large drop in market capitalization is probably due to several factors. Historically, Lucent had successfully met analysts’ projections for 15 consecutive quarters before announcing, in
January 2000, a major shortfall in profits relative to previous expectations. In June, the quarterly balance sheet reported an operating loss of $301m (for the first time since 1998) while warning of weaker profits in Q4. In addition, the revenue recognition issues announced by the new CEO appointed in October were surely perceived as an indication that Lucent’s management was managing revenues and therefore a possible cause of a future fall in revenues.
This led investors to modify their earnings expectations in light of the revenue-recognition problems faced by the firm. Since a company’s share price reflects forecasts of future cash flows, and Lucent’s Q3 and Q4 revenues were substantially written-down, investors would rationally expect future earnings to be affected as well. In an efficient market environment, the $24.7bn in lost market capitalization would equal the discounted value of these expected cash flows.
However, it is also likely that the repeated missed expectations caused an overreaction by investors, as the company was forced to revise its revenues downward two times over the span of two quarters. This probably raised fears in the market of more widespread problems with the firm’s accounting practices.
It should also be kept in mind that the Internet bubble had just burst and a technology related company announcing an operating loss and lower revenues could easily cause a panic selloff
among