Space Aliens Research Paper
the 1950s, but no one has even found convincing proof that space aliens are visiting Earth. She can’t explain what happened to the cows, but still she thinks there is only a 0.5% chance that they were stolen by space aliens.
3. Abby and Bob have talked about UFOs before. Are UFOs real? Abby thinks it is dumb to believe that UFOs exist. The military, aviation authorities, and the government would have discovered them and announced the discovery if UFOs exist. But Bob points out that the government would announce this only if the politicians were not secretly cooperating with the space aliens in order to help them invade Earth. (Probably the politicians have negotiated positions of power for themselves after the invasion, when the rest of humanity …show more content…
ii. Based on Abby’s estimates of the probabilities, what is the probability that the cows were stolen by a UFO? Should she believe they were, assuming her probabilities are correct? To make it rational for her to believe this, the probability of electrical or radio problems, assuming there was no UFO, would have to be less | greater than _____. iii. Based on Bob’s estimates of the probabilities, what is the probability that the cows were stolen by a UFO? Should Bob believe this? Should Bob post this story on the UFO forum?
To make it that he should post his story on the forum, the probability of electrical or radio problems, assuming that he is wrong about the cows, would have to be less | greater than _______.
e) Suppose that there had been no electrical or radio problems. In that case, what would be the updated probability for Bob?
© Lyle Crawford - 224 -
12) Read this story and then answer the questions about it.
Abby is a seismologist: she studies earthquakes and the way that the vibrations caused by earthquakes move through the planet. One of the goals of seismology is to predict earthquakes in order to warn people who live in the area where they will happen, but accurate prediction is
3. Abby and Bob have talked about UFOs before. Are UFOs real? Abby thinks it is dumb to believe that UFOs exist. The military, aviation authorities, and the government would have discovered them and announced the discovery if UFOs exist. But Bob points out that the government would announce this only if the politicians were not secretly cooperating with the space aliens in order to help them invade Earth. (Probably the politicians have negotiated positions of power for themselves after the invasion, when the rest of humanity …show more content…
ii. Based on Abby’s estimates of the probabilities, what is the probability that the cows were stolen by a UFO? Should she believe they were, assuming her probabilities are correct? To make it rational for her to believe this, the probability of electrical or radio problems, assuming there was no UFO, would have to be less | greater than _____. iii. Based on Bob’s estimates of the probabilities, what is the probability that the cows were stolen by a UFO? Should Bob believe this? Should Bob post this story on the UFO forum?
To make it that he should post his story on the forum, the probability of electrical or radio problems, assuming that he is wrong about the cows, would have to be less | greater than _______.
e) Suppose that there had been no electrical or radio problems. In that case, what would be the updated probability for Bob?
© Lyle Crawford - 224 -
12) Read this story and then answer the questions about it.
Abby is a seismologist: she studies earthquakes and the way that the vibrations caused by earthquakes move through the planet. One of the goals of seismology is to predict earthquakes in order to warn people who live in the area where they will happen, but accurate prediction is