Strategic Decision Analysis with Mrt Model
Table of Contents I. II. III. IV. V. VI.
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 Decision-process analysis using the MRT model .............................................................. 2 Identification of relevant cognitive biases within the decision-process ............................ 8 Discussion on information technology’s possible roles in the case ................................. 10 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 10 References................................................................................................................... 11
1
I.
Introduction The Cuban Missile Crisis has been one of the most formidable political-military incidents in the world’s history. It is described as a seminal event that “symbolizes a central, if only thinkable, fact about our existence” (Allison, 1969, p. 689). The crisis is the closest that the world came to the outbreak of a nuclear war between the two world superpower of the time, the United States and the Soviet Union. For the period of thirteen days of October 1962, the leaders of both sides spent every single moment to tackle the situation when there was a higher-than-ever probability of 100 million Americans, over 100 million Russians, and millions of Europeans being killed. Given the probability of calamity which Anatoly Gribkov - Soviet General and Army Chief of Operations - estimated that “Nuclear catastrophe was hanging by a thread … and we weren’t counting days or hours, but minutes”, (Wiersma & Larson, 1997, p. 3) our escape seems like magic. It would be irrational, however, to call on magic when it comes to politics or military. The nuclear war being averted, the ultimate consequence of this event should be counted on the strategic decision of the two men, President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita
Introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 Decision-process analysis using the MRT model .............................................................. 2 Identification of relevant cognitive biases within the decision-process ............................ 8 Discussion on information technology’s possible roles in the case ................................. 10 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 10 References................................................................................................................... 11
1
I.
Introduction The Cuban Missile Crisis has been one of the most formidable political-military incidents in the world’s history. It is described as a seminal event that “symbolizes a central, if only thinkable, fact about our existence” (Allison, 1969, p. 689). The crisis is the closest that the world came to the outbreak of a nuclear war between the two world superpower of the time, the United States and the Soviet Union. For the period of thirteen days of October 1962, the leaders of both sides spent every single moment to tackle the situation when there was a higher-than-ever probability of 100 million Americans, over 100 million Russians, and millions of Europeans being killed. Given the probability of calamity which Anatoly Gribkov - Soviet General and Army Chief of Operations - estimated that “Nuclear catastrophe was hanging by a thread … and we weren’t counting days or hours, but minutes”, (Wiersma & Larson, 1997, p. 3) our escape seems like magic. It would be irrational, however, to call on magic when it comes to politics or military. The nuclear war being averted, the ultimate consequence of this event should be counted on the strategic decision of the two men, President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita
References: Allison, Graham T. (1969). Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis. The American Political Science Review, 63 (3), 689-718. Arnott, D. (2002). A Taxonomy of Decision Biases. Decision Support Systems Laboratory, Monash University. Arnott, D. (2006). Cognitive Biases and Decision Support Systems Development: A Design Science Approach. Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University. Mintzberg, H., Raisinghani, D., & Théorêt, A. (1976). The Structure of “Unstructured” decision processes. Administrative Science Quarterly, 21 (6), 246-275. John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum. The World on the Brink: John F. Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Thirteen Days in October 1962. Retrieved from http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/ Stern, Sheldon M. (2003). Averting ‘The Final Failure’: John F. Kennedy and the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis Meetings. Standford, California: Stand ford University Press. Wiersma, K., & Larson, B. (1997). Fourteen Days in October: The Cuban Missile Crisis. Retrieved from http://library.thinkquest.org/11046/days/index.html 11