The Delphi Method by Theodore J. Gordon
Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
The Millennium Project
THE DELPHI METHOD by Theodore J. Gordon
I. History of the Method
II. Description of the Method
III. How to Do It
IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method
V. Frontiers of the Method
VI. Samples of Applications
Bibliography
The Millennium Project
Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
Acknowledgments
Some contents of this report have been taken, in some cases verbatim, from internal papers of
The Futures Group with their permission. These papers were written by John G. Stover,
Theodore J. Gordon, and others describing the Delphi method and its applications. The managing editor also gratefully acknowledges the contributions of reviewers of the draft of this paper: Dr.
Ian Miles of The Programme of Policy Research in Engineering Science and Technology, in the
United Kingdom; Dr. Brian Free of the Futures Environment Council of Alberta, Canada; Dr.
Mika Mannermaa of the Futures Research Centre at Turku School of Economics, Turku,
Finland; Dr. Harold A. Linstone of Portland State University, United States; and Dr. Peter
Bishop of the University of Houston, in the United States. And finally, special thanks to
Elizabeth Florescu and Neda Zawahri for project support, Barry Bluestein for research and computer operations and Sheila Harty for editing.
The Delphi Method
ii
The Millennium Project
Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
I. HISTORY OF THE METHOD
The modern renaissance of futures research began with the Delphi technique at RAND, the Santa
Monica, California, "think tank" in the early 1960s. The questions of RAND thinkers, at the time, primarily dealt with the military potential of future technology and potential political issues and their resolution. The forecasting approaches that could be used in such applications were quite limited and included simulation gaming (individuals acting out the parts of nations or political factions) and genius forecasting (a
The Millennium Project
THE DELPHI METHOD by Theodore J. Gordon
I. History of the Method
II. Description of the Method
III. How to Do It
IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method
V. Frontiers of the Method
VI. Samples of Applications
Bibliography
The Millennium Project
Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
Acknowledgments
Some contents of this report have been taken, in some cases verbatim, from internal papers of
The Futures Group with their permission. These papers were written by John G. Stover,
Theodore J. Gordon, and others describing the Delphi method and its applications. The managing editor also gratefully acknowledges the contributions of reviewers of the draft of this paper: Dr.
Ian Miles of The Programme of Policy Research in Engineering Science and Technology, in the
United Kingdom; Dr. Brian Free of the Futures Environment Council of Alberta, Canada; Dr.
Mika Mannermaa of the Futures Research Centre at Turku School of Economics, Turku,
Finland; Dr. Harold A. Linstone of Portland State University, United States; and Dr. Peter
Bishop of the University of Houston, in the United States. And finally, special thanks to
Elizabeth Florescu and Neda Zawahri for project support, Barry Bluestein for research and computer operations and Sheila Harty for editing.
The Delphi Method
ii
The Millennium Project
Futures Research Methodology—V3.0
I. HISTORY OF THE METHOD
The modern renaissance of futures research began with the Delphi technique at RAND, the Santa
Monica, California, "think tank" in the early 1960s. The questions of RAND thinkers, at the time, primarily dealt with the military potential of future technology and potential political issues and their resolution. The forecasting approaches that could be used in such applications were quite limited and included simulation gaming (individuals acting out the parts of nations or political factions) and genius forecasting (a
Bibliography: using hallucinogenic vapors and animal entrails. They began from a philosophical base and asked initially, "just how much could be known about the future?" (Helmer and Rescher, 1959) The temptation to review all of the forecasts with the advantage of hindsight is great (one such review was done by Amant in 1970), but a cursory review shows many forecasts that were on