The State of Our Unions
The Social Health of Marriage in America
2007
Essay: The Future of Marriage in America
David Popenoe
© Copyright 2007
Introduction
In this year’s essay, David Popenoe argues that long-term trends point to the gradual weakening of marriage as the primary social institution of family life. More Americans today are living together, marrying at older ages or not at all, and rearing children in cohabiting or solo parent households. Overall, the U.S. trends are following the far-advanced trends toward nonmarriage in Northwestern European nations, albeit at a slower and more uneven pace.
Popenoe attributes the weakening of marriage to a broad cultural shift away from religion and social traditionalism and toward faith in personal independence and tolerance for diverse life styles – otherwise known as "secular individualism." This cultural shift is a central feature of modern societies and therefore unlikely to be reversed.
Compared to Europeans, moreover, Americans are more libertarian and thus may be more susceptible to harshly negative consequences of secular individualism on family life. As Popenoe concludes, it will probably require a cultural awakening, perhaps prompted by rational self-interest, to avoid such an outcome. We will have to adopt the view that personal happiness depends on high-trust and lasting relationships and that such relationships require constraints on short-term adult interests in order to foster long-term commitments to children, and thus to the future.
Barbara Dafoe Whitehead
THE FUTURE OF MARRIAGE IN AMERICA
David Popenoe
Almost a decade ago, in our first annual State of Our Unions Report in 1999, the lead essay was "What’s Happening to Marriage." The picture we painted was hopeful, if not especially optimistic. Marriage, we reported, "is weakening but it is too soon to write its obituary." In this, our ninth annual report to the