The Pros And Cons Of Tornado Forecasting
Tornado forecasting can date back to 1948 where the first forecast was made by Capt. Robert C. Miller and Maj. Ernest J. Fawbush (Coleman, 567). This forecast was significant because of the Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes. Over a 5-day period in March of 1948, two tornadoes hit the base directly. They were the most destructive tornadoes to hit Oklahoma at that time. These two officers were able to pick up on the meteorological patterns and generate a forecast using a prognostic chart and weather stations. Specifically, they looked at the surface analysis which showed a low-pressure system approaching from the southwest. This forecast gave the base enough time to evacuate to safety and the second tornado did not cause as much damage. Back then
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people only had a matter of seconds to give out a warning before a storm hit. Soon after this, Tetsuya Fujita discovered the cumulonimbus downdraft. His contribution led to the naming of the Fujita scale as shown in Table 1. With the introduction of technology, scientist analyzes and compare data and charts to create the most accurate prediction for incoming weather. In modern day, meteorologist depends on technology to predict tornadoes and the area it threatens.
Dopplers, radar, and satellites are great tools for gathering observational data. However, with this technology, there are limitations and challenges that meteorologist face that affect forecasts. One of the biggest challenges is comprehending all the compiled data that it sent it. The biggest limitation with forecasting tornadoes is a concept called spatial uncertainty which is the lack of knowledge or data on an object’s geographic location. In this case, Tornadoes pose an incredible difficulty with issuing warnings. Based on data collected over the years shown in Figure 2, there was a consensus that “Tornado season” occurs during the springtime and more tornadoes occur more frequently in the Great Plains, as known as “Tornado Alley”. The warning system in the U.S. is efficient in alerting people of an impending tornado with the use of radios, television, sirens, etc. However, there was a ban placed in 1887 on broadcasting tornadoes based on a census among scientist that tornado forecasts were more harmful than beneficial (Colman, 567). When the band was officially lifted they were usually only issued in a matter of seconds during the ‘50s and ‘60s. Now we can issue a warning at least 15 minutes prior due to today’s technology. The main goal for the future of forecasting is closing the gap between warnings and watches so issuing warnings are more accurate and maybe
even hours before a storm hits. That way people have enough warning to evacuate and get to safety.
people only had a matter of seconds to give out a warning before a storm hit. Soon after this, Tetsuya Fujita discovered the cumulonimbus downdraft. His contribution led to the naming of the Fujita scale as shown in Table 1. With the introduction of technology, scientist analyzes and compare data and charts to create the most accurate prediction for incoming weather. In modern day, meteorologist depends on technology to predict tornadoes and the area it threatens.
Dopplers, radar, and satellites are great tools for gathering observational data. However, with this technology, there are limitations and challenges that meteorologist face that affect forecasts. One of the biggest challenges is comprehending all the compiled data that it sent it. The biggest limitation with forecasting tornadoes is a concept called spatial uncertainty which is the lack of knowledge or data on an object’s geographic location. In this case, Tornadoes pose an incredible difficulty with issuing warnings. Based on data collected over the years shown in Figure 2, there was a consensus that “Tornado season” occurs during the springtime and more tornadoes occur more frequently in the Great Plains, as known as “Tornado Alley”. The warning system in the U.S. is efficient in alerting people of an impending tornado with the use of radios, television, sirens, etc. However, there was a ban placed in 1887 on broadcasting tornadoes based on a census among scientist that tornado forecasts were more harmful than beneficial (Colman, 567). When the band was officially lifted they were usually only issued in a matter of seconds during the ‘50s and ‘60s. Now we can issue a warning at least 15 minutes prior due to today’s technology. The main goal for the future of forecasting is closing the gap between warnings and watches so issuing warnings are more accurate and maybe
even hours before a storm hits. That way people have enough warning to evacuate and get to safety.