The Republican Party Essay
The last few months have seen several political surprises, the growing popularity of a grass roots social-democrat and an outspoken and controversial real-estate tycoon. Today, march 13th, there are four candidates for the GOP nomination and two for the Democratic. Both races are close, but nothing is for certain. Based upon polls, voter history and analysis of candidates for the democratic and republican party, who statistically could be the parties’ nominee and ultimately the next president of the united states?
The current election promises to be a historic election no matter the outcome. On the democratic side we are presented by a potential female president as well as a Jewish president. This is no small matter and would be as ground …show more content…
breaking as President Obamas election. On the other side of the isle a potential foreign born president is presented along with a Latino, also among the candidates there is a political novice and a run of the mill governor. This election has also introduced rhetoric otherwise unused in “respectable” and “ordinary” politics and has resulted in mixed responses from the American people and different media outlets.
Among the Republican candidates is the most out-spoken of them all, Donald Trump.
Known for extravagant displays of wealth, controversial statements and toupee like hair, he currently holds a betting odd of 11:4. On the other side is the established former First lady and secretary of State Hillary Clinton who has gained significant support from the black community, played largely on equality but is being challenged on her transcripts from a speech to Wall street tycoons is leading in the betting arena with a 1:2 odds. Moving back to the Republicans is Ted Cruz who is presented as a very conservative Republican in all aspects, but has been mocked on social media for his facial expressions that humans instinctively mistrust as well as jokingly called The Zodiac Killer is fairly far behind with the odds of …show more content…
22:1.
A quick jump back over party lines presents a man who has served as the longest standing Independent Senator who claims to be starting a political revolution, Bernie Sanders. Perhaps what is more supervising is the result of his campaign that is not funded by any super PACs and is considered a grass roots movement and resulted with a odds of 12:1. The last two candidates are both from the republican party, but posses very different campaign strategies. John Kasich has taken the more dignifies route and has refused to get entangled in the current rhetoric, something that might be the reason he is gaining traction and is currently at an odds of 22:1. Marco Rubio trails behind despite what the GOP establishment wants and is suffering far behind at 50:1. (Bet365, Oddschecker)
When push comes to shove results in the polls trump the odds from the bookie. The small states who voted before Super Tuesday were able to set the expectations of the election and influence voters in larger states. This was proven when Trump in the lead and Cruz continuously trading off winning with Rubio and Kasich trailing behind in the GOP nomination. In the meanwhile, the Democratic camp had a much more stable duel between two candidates, Clinton and Sanders, instead of spreading itself thin. This has given the democrats the ability to have a real political debate while the Republicans are still at times almost equally split and risks candidates winning winner-takes-all states by small margins and a spread out vote like in South Caroline in February. Super Tuesday also showed similar results for the Republicans, Trump winning the vote but not the majority while virtually every Democratic primary showed a clear winner. Despite the fact that one of the biggest nomination voting dates has come and gone, much is left undecided and unclear. To date only approx. 28% of the Democratic delegates have been decided and a whopping approx. 43% of the Republican, meaning there is still plenty of wiggle room for candidates and surprises might be around the corner. On March 15th several hundred delegates will be pledged to a candidate and the point of no return will be upon the GOP election.
The winner-takes-all
A total of 367 delegates, almost as many as Ted Cruz has in total, will be fought over the 15th of March. Marco Rubio’s´ home state of Florida will cast the most states in a winner-takes-all splurge, and he is more than 20 points behind Trump who is leading with 41.4% in the average poll (RealClearPolitics). This is also a big day for the Democratic nomination as 792 delegates, almost 17% of the total delegate count, that will either give Clinton a clear path to victory or give Sanders a chance to catch up and prove his worth to the superdelegates who are not formerly pledged to a candidate.
While superdelegates can make or break a democratic nomination, winner take all states can stop GOP candidates dead in their tracks. At the current trajectory, Donald Trump is situated to win the nomination despite only being ahead by 10% on average. What is even more evident, is that Rubio cannot win if he does not win big on the 15th. The New York times delegate count shows that even if he got 100% of the votes after the 15th he would not have enough votes to secure the nomination and would need other candidates to pledge their votes to him. John Kasich is currently in a similar situation, while also holding the least number of delegates. Ted Cruz on the other hand could manage, but 100% support is highly unlikely.
This essentially means that everything rides on the 15th of March. Trump could very well win the nomination because of winner-take-all states, unless Trump’sersonal observation 9 uge leap forward in gender equlity in the US and set a tone of he is both generally well known lik opposition bans together and endorses one candidate and this becomes a one-on-one fight. This is theoretically possible if Trump gets blocked at a contested convention because no candidate has the needed delegate count, then in the second vote 57% of the delegates are unbound. If there continues to be no clear winner, each round of votes will release more delegates and Trump’s prospect will dim substantially as he continues to alienate the Republican establishment.
In contrast to the Republican race, the Democratic election has only two possible outcomes, either Sanders wins or Clinton wins.
Bernie Sanders could theoretically manage to get an average of 4% more pledged delegate than Hillary Clinton and the superdelegates rush to his side to enforce the democratic process of election by popular vote. Or, the current trajectory continues and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote by a respectable margin and the superdelegates do not jump ship. The third scenario, and most unlikely, is that Clinton wins the delegates but Sanders steals the superdelegates. This raises the question of whether or not superdelegates are poisoning the Democrats “democratic”
nomination?
In the 2016 nomination for the Democratic candidate, superdelegates make up 15% of the vote at the convention. These votes can enforce the popular vote, or betray it. Currently, according to The New York Times, Clinton has 465 superdelegates and Sanders has 25. This leaves 227 superdelegates without any informal pledge, and are theoretical wild cards in this nomination. In the end Hillary Clinton will most likely secure her nomination because of the superdelegates and the contacts she has created. Clinton might claim not to be a natural politician, but she most certaintly has the network through decades of being a politician’s wife and in more recent years climbing the ranks herself.
The final results
If the current leaders in the primaries, Clinton and Trump, were to win, polls have already been conducted to anticipate the possible outcome. RealClearPolitics report that the average poll for the general election of Trump vs Clinton would put the formal first lady ahead with an average of 6.3 points. Polls that show Trump in the lead are few and far between, and only averaging a 4-point lead. What is even clearer is that polls shows Sanders to win against Trump with an average of 10 points, making it clear that Trump will most likely not win the general election when pitted against any candidate from the Democrats.
What is in contrast a very big surprise is the results with any other republican candidate against Clinton. Polls show her losing by decimals to Cruz, almost 4 points to Rubio and a whopping 7,4 points to Kasich. Furthermore, the tables turn once again if we replace the Democrats candidate. Sanders is theorized to win by almost 10 points against Cruz, 3,3 against Rubio but only decimals against Kasich. This, in its essence, means that unless the Republicans stop Trump, the next president will most likely be a Democrat for the 3rd term in a row and the first female President of the United States of America.
The current trajectory of the rhetoric used by candidates and the continues prioritization of entertainment over politics will hinder qualified and less aggressive and charismatic candidates to gain traction. This will leave voters with few choices and many will potentially be faced with voting for the lesser evil or not vote at all, both potential outcomes will weaken the American democracy. If Statistics hold, Hillary Clinton will be win. A prospect that is far from concerning as she is both generally well known, liked and has high level political experience. The prospect of a female President will also offer a huge leap forward in gender equality in the US and set a positive tone on her presidency.
The current election promises to be a historic election no matter the outcome. On the democratic side we are presented by a potential female president as well as a Jewish president. This is no small matter and would be as ground …show more content…
breaking as President Obamas election. On the other side of the isle a potential foreign born president is presented along with a Latino, also among the candidates there is a political novice and a run of the mill governor. This election has also introduced rhetoric otherwise unused in “respectable” and “ordinary” politics and has resulted in mixed responses from the American people and different media outlets.
Among the Republican candidates is the most out-spoken of them all, Donald Trump.
Known for extravagant displays of wealth, controversial statements and toupee like hair, he currently holds a betting odd of 11:4. On the other side is the established former First lady and secretary of State Hillary Clinton who has gained significant support from the black community, played largely on equality but is being challenged on her transcripts from a speech to Wall street tycoons is leading in the betting arena with a 1:2 odds. Moving back to the Republicans is Ted Cruz who is presented as a very conservative Republican in all aspects, but has been mocked on social media for his facial expressions that humans instinctively mistrust as well as jokingly called The Zodiac Killer is fairly far behind with the odds of …show more content…
22:1.
A quick jump back over party lines presents a man who has served as the longest standing Independent Senator who claims to be starting a political revolution, Bernie Sanders. Perhaps what is more supervising is the result of his campaign that is not funded by any super PACs and is considered a grass roots movement and resulted with a odds of 12:1. The last two candidates are both from the republican party, but posses very different campaign strategies. John Kasich has taken the more dignifies route and has refused to get entangled in the current rhetoric, something that might be the reason he is gaining traction and is currently at an odds of 22:1. Marco Rubio trails behind despite what the GOP establishment wants and is suffering far behind at 50:1. (Bet365, Oddschecker)
When push comes to shove results in the polls trump the odds from the bookie. The small states who voted before Super Tuesday were able to set the expectations of the election and influence voters in larger states. This was proven when Trump in the lead and Cruz continuously trading off winning with Rubio and Kasich trailing behind in the GOP nomination. In the meanwhile, the Democratic camp had a much more stable duel between two candidates, Clinton and Sanders, instead of spreading itself thin. This has given the democrats the ability to have a real political debate while the Republicans are still at times almost equally split and risks candidates winning winner-takes-all states by small margins and a spread out vote like in South Caroline in February. Super Tuesday also showed similar results for the Republicans, Trump winning the vote but not the majority while virtually every Democratic primary showed a clear winner. Despite the fact that one of the biggest nomination voting dates has come and gone, much is left undecided and unclear. To date only approx. 28% of the Democratic delegates have been decided and a whopping approx. 43% of the Republican, meaning there is still plenty of wiggle room for candidates and surprises might be around the corner. On March 15th several hundred delegates will be pledged to a candidate and the point of no return will be upon the GOP election.
The winner-takes-all
A total of 367 delegates, almost as many as Ted Cruz has in total, will be fought over the 15th of March. Marco Rubio’s´ home state of Florida will cast the most states in a winner-takes-all splurge, and he is more than 20 points behind Trump who is leading with 41.4% in the average poll (RealClearPolitics). This is also a big day for the Democratic nomination as 792 delegates, almost 17% of the total delegate count, that will either give Clinton a clear path to victory or give Sanders a chance to catch up and prove his worth to the superdelegates who are not formerly pledged to a candidate.
While superdelegates can make or break a democratic nomination, winner take all states can stop GOP candidates dead in their tracks. At the current trajectory, Donald Trump is situated to win the nomination despite only being ahead by 10% on average. What is even more evident, is that Rubio cannot win if he does not win big on the 15th. The New York times delegate count shows that even if he got 100% of the votes after the 15th he would not have enough votes to secure the nomination and would need other candidates to pledge their votes to him. John Kasich is currently in a similar situation, while also holding the least number of delegates. Ted Cruz on the other hand could manage, but 100% support is highly unlikely.
This essentially means that everything rides on the 15th of March. Trump could very well win the nomination because of winner-take-all states, unless Trump’sersonal observation 9 uge leap forward in gender equlity in the US and set a tone of he is both generally well known lik opposition bans together and endorses one candidate and this becomes a one-on-one fight. This is theoretically possible if Trump gets blocked at a contested convention because no candidate has the needed delegate count, then in the second vote 57% of the delegates are unbound. If there continues to be no clear winner, each round of votes will release more delegates and Trump’s prospect will dim substantially as he continues to alienate the Republican establishment.
In contrast to the Republican race, the Democratic election has only two possible outcomes, either Sanders wins or Clinton wins.
Bernie Sanders could theoretically manage to get an average of 4% more pledged delegate than Hillary Clinton and the superdelegates rush to his side to enforce the democratic process of election by popular vote. Or, the current trajectory continues and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote by a respectable margin and the superdelegates do not jump ship. The third scenario, and most unlikely, is that Clinton wins the delegates but Sanders steals the superdelegates. This raises the question of whether or not superdelegates are poisoning the Democrats “democratic”
nomination?
In the 2016 nomination for the Democratic candidate, superdelegates make up 15% of the vote at the convention. These votes can enforce the popular vote, or betray it. Currently, according to The New York Times, Clinton has 465 superdelegates and Sanders has 25. This leaves 227 superdelegates without any informal pledge, and are theoretical wild cards in this nomination. In the end Hillary Clinton will most likely secure her nomination because of the superdelegates and the contacts she has created. Clinton might claim not to be a natural politician, but she most certaintly has the network through decades of being a politician’s wife and in more recent years climbing the ranks herself.
The final results
If the current leaders in the primaries, Clinton and Trump, were to win, polls have already been conducted to anticipate the possible outcome. RealClearPolitics report that the average poll for the general election of Trump vs Clinton would put the formal first lady ahead with an average of 6.3 points. Polls that show Trump in the lead are few and far between, and only averaging a 4-point lead. What is even clearer is that polls shows Sanders to win against Trump with an average of 10 points, making it clear that Trump will most likely not win the general election when pitted against any candidate from the Democrats.
What is in contrast a very big surprise is the results with any other republican candidate against Clinton. Polls show her losing by decimals to Cruz, almost 4 points to Rubio and a whopping 7,4 points to Kasich. Furthermore, the tables turn once again if we replace the Democrats candidate. Sanders is theorized to win by almost 10 points against Cruz, 3,3 against Rubio but only decimals against Kasich. This, in its essence, means that unless the Republicans stop Trump, the next president will most likely be a Democrat for the 3rd term in a row and the first female President of the United States of America.
The current trajectory of the rhetoric used by candidates and the continues prioritization of entertainment over politics will hinder qualified and less aggressive and charismatic candidates to gain traction. This will leave voters with few choices and many will potentially be faced with voting for the lesser evil or not vote at all, both potential outcomes will weaken the American democracy. If Statistics hold, Hillary Clinton will be win. A prospect that is far from concerning as she is both generally well known, liked and has high level political experience. The prospect of a female President will also offer a huge leap forward in gender equality in the US and set a positive tone on her presidency.