The World in 2050
Global Economics January 2011
The world in 2050
Quantifying the shift in the global economy
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. In this piece, we argue that this shift is set to continue. By 2050, the collective size of the economies we currently deem 'emerging' will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world. And 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world. At the same time, there will be a marked decline in the economic might – and potentially the political clout – of many small population, ageing, rich economies in Europe.
By Karen Ward
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
Economics Global 4 January 2011
abc
The world in 2050
19 of the 30 largest economies will be emerging economies The emerging economies will collectively be bigger than the
developed economies
Global growth will accelerate thanks to the contribution from the
emerging economies
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. But why is this change occurring? Will it continue? And how will the world look if it does? The answers to these questions are important for investors' decisions today. In this piece, we provide a framework for thinking about these issues. Based on our analysis of the Top 30 economies ranked by size of GDP in 2050, our conclusions are as follows: World output will treble, as growth accelerates on the back of the emerging economies. On average, annual world growth is projected to be accelerate towards 3% compared with growth of just over 2% in the 2000s (Chart 1). Emerging-world growth will contribute twice as much as the developed world to global growth over this period. By 2050, the emerging world will have increased five-fold and will be
The world in 2050
Quantifying the shift in the global economy
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. In this piece, we argue that this shift is set to continue. By 2050, the collective size of the economies we currently deem 'emerging' will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world. And 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world. At the same time, there will be a marked decline in the economic might – and potentially the political clout – of many small population, ageing, rich economies in Europe.
By Karen Ward
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
Economics Global 4 January 2011
abc
The world in 2050
19 of the 30 largest economies will be emerging economies The emerging economies will collectively be bigger than the
developed economies
Global growth will accelerate thanks to the contribution from the
emerging economies
With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. But why is this change occurring? Will it continue? And how will the world look if it does? The answers to these questions are important for investors' decisions today. In this piece, we provide a framework for thinking about these issues. Based on our analysis of the Top 30 economies ranked by size of GDP in 2050, our conclusions are as follows: World output will treble, as growth accelerates on the back of the emerging economies. On average, annual world growth is projected to be accelerate towards 3% compared with growth of just over 2% in the 2000s (Chart 1). Emerging-world growth will contribute twice as much as the developed world to global growth over this period. By 2050, the emerging world will have increased five-fold and will be