Wealth and Economic Development influences on fertility and mortality rates
Wealth and Economic Development and their influences on fertility and mortality rates
UWI Mona
10/22/2014
Economic development is a phenomenon that has been discussed, debated about over the years, however; a conclusive process has not been developed as to how it can be attained. The main goal of economic development is improving the economic well being of a community through efforts that entail job creation, job retention, tax base enhancements and quality of life (Harrison 1992). Economic development ultimately speaks about a country’s wealth and it influences fertility and mortality rates and the “how” will be discussed in the scope of this essay. The more developed a country is the lower their mortality and fertility rates would be while if they are less developed the factors would be higher. These are considered to be indicators of development and one such model that depicts this is known as the Demographic Transition model. This model was proposed by Warren Thompson in 1929 and was based on interpretations of demographic history where he observed changes or transitions in birth and death rates in industrialized societies. When birth rates exceed death rates the population will grow and fertility rates are closely related to birth rates and is often a more useful measure as it is unaffected by the age distribution of the population (Haupt et al 2004). Fertility rate is defined as the average number of children born to each woman over the course of her life (Haupt et al 2004).
Looking more closely at the correlation between economic development and fertility rates using empirical data you can see where one influences another. High fertility rates can put a strain on governments experiencing such situations. High fertility rates in less developed countries occur because of high infant mortality. In poor agrarian societies, fatalism is prominent. Most people’s livelihoods are dependent upon the weather, disease, and accident because they lack the wealth and accompanying infrastructure to gain independence from their environment (Harrison 1992). This fatal society caused by lack of wealth increases child mortality rates. Operating under such life uncertainty, women over-insure by having many children (Longman 2004). In 2006, the more developed countries, the average women needed to have 2.1 children to replace the population. However, in war torn Sierra Leone, the average woman needed to have 3.43 children to replace the population. The actual fertility rate was 6.47 (UN 2007). This discrepancy between the actual fertility rate and the required fertility rate is due to the fact that people’s behavior is not often calculative. In societies with high infant mortality, there is an exponentially larger fertility rate to insure for the possibility of child death. An impoverished mother would think that the costs of losing her children are much higher than the costs to the world of overpopulation. Therefore, the given uncertainty makes her over insure by having more children. This interplay with development because a country that can afford the desired health care needed to reduce infant mortality would promote confidence in mothers to only have the desired amount of kids and not worry about their children dying a few weeks after birth.
One country that can be used to cement these arguments is Zambia. The Zambian population has grown rapidly over the years wherein the population grew from only about 2.3 million people in1950 to 9.9 million at the time of the 2000 census. By 2009, the population had grown further to nearly 13 million persons (MoFNP 2010). This rapid population growth is, in part and largely, due to Zambia’s high fertility rate where Zambian women have 6.2 children each, on average one of the higher levels of fertility in Africa (MoFNP 2010). Zambia’s fertility rate has been high for so long that it caused the country to have a very youthful population where 46% of the population is under the age of 15 (MoFNP 2010). This therefore increases the dependency ratio of Zambia and puts additional stress on the Zambian government. The government would then put a strain on the economically active persons as they are the ones paying the taxes. The number of students to one teacher would increase, which will ultimately affect the country’s literacy rates. The patient doctor ratio would also increase, therefore putting a strain on the health sector which correlates with mortality rates. One perfect example of this is the recent occurrence of a man dying in the Spanish Town hospital after complaining about stomach aches. He was in the hospital in Jamaica, for a long period of time awaiting the doctor’s assistance but never received it. This therefore shows that the mortality rates can increase if there are only a few doctors to help the sick. There would be a greater demand for housing, transportation, roads, water and sanitation, energy and employment. The high population growth in Zambia will only exacerbate the already poor living condition. The country’s wealth can be examined as the government will not be able to hire more professionals such as teachers or doctors and they also cannot afford to build new houses thus causing an increase in squatter settlements. If they do build houses they would be made from cheap materials making the buildings more hazardous in natural disasters thus increasing the mortality rates. Fertility rates therefore have a very strong correlation to the development of the country as it is a determinant of a growing or declining population.
The mortality rates as stated before also helps to indicate a country’s economic development. High mortality rates would indicate that a country is less developed according to the stages in the demographic transition model and as these rates decrease the country’s economic status will increase. As this model is outdated and was based solely on the industrialized societies at the time it was developed. Mortality rates coincide with economic growth as it is said that poverty (low economic growth) causes a high increase in death rates. This is because the relationship between mortality and poverty is bi-directional. On one hand, a poor country is unable to afford sanitation and proper medical care which causes their citizens to die young thus increasing the mortality rate. On the other hand, where people have a short time horizon because they are expected to die young, they have fewer reasons to save therefore causing the economy not to grow (Lorentzen et al 2005). A steady decline in adult mortality (while child mortality stayed level) accounts for 70% of the growth acceleration from 1700-1820 (Boucekkine et al. 2003) which shows a direct correlation of economic growth and mortality rates. Bleakley (2003) finds that eliminating hookworm, a non-fatal condition afflicting children, boosted human capital accumulation in the American South while Sachs (2001) presented a policy case for boosting investments in health, particularly malaria eradication, to promote economic development. This also shows how a good health care unit can reduce mortality rates and ultimately improve development.
In conclusion fertility and mortality rates can determine a country’s economic wealth while a country’s economic wealth can determine the country’s fertility and mortality rates. These two indicators can also be affected by different factors contributing to them being high or low. Population growth is very dynamic and therefore there can be changes constantly.
References
Bleakley, H 2003, ‘Disease and Development: Evidence from the American South,’ Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 1, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1162/154247603322391017/abstract>
Boucekkine, R Croix, D & Licandro, O 2003, ‘Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Economic Growth,’ Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 105, pp. 401-418, October 21, 2014, <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=443769>
Harrison, P 1992, The Third Revolution: Environment, Population and a Sustainable World, Tauris and CO Ltd, London.
Haupt, A & Thomas, K 2004, Population Handbook, Population Reference Bureau , 5th edn, Washington, DC, viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.prb.org/pdf/pophandbook_eng.pdf>
Lorentzen, P McMillan, J Wacziarg, R 2005, Death and Development, Stanford University, California, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://www.google.com.jm/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEsQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F5149836_Death_and_development%2Flinks%2F0912f50aaeb7159c4e000000&ei=9EdJVOWcJI_LggT1mIHoAw&usg=AFQjCNE0GwAfhKOUpDyD3ZVYJJvxWp37AA&bvm=bv.77880786,d.eXY>
Longman, P 2004, ‘Everywhere, Even in Africa, the World is Running out of Children,’ New Statesman, May 2005, Viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.newstatesman.com/node/148063>
Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) 2010, Zambia: Population and National Development, Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Lusaka, Zambia
Sachs, J D 2001, ‘Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development,’ Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Geneva: World Health Organization
United Nations 2007, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlight, ESA/P/WP.202, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, New York.
References: Bleakley, H 2003, ‘Disease and Development: Evidence from the American South,’ Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 1, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1162/154247603322391017/abstract> Boucekkine, R Croix, D & Licandro, O 2003, ‘Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Economic Growth,’ Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 105, pp. 401-418, October 21, 2014, <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=443769> Harrison, P 1992, The Third Revolution: Environment, Population and a Sustainable World, Tauris and CO Ltd, London. Haupt, A & Thomas, K 2004, Population Handbook, Population Reference Bureau , 5th edn, Washington, DC, viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.prb.org/pdf/pophandbook_eng.pdf> Lorentzen, P McMillan, J Wacziarg, R 2005, Death and Development, Stanford University, California, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://www.google.com.jm/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEsQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F5149836_Death_and_development%2Flinks%2F0912f50aaeb7159c4e000000&ei=9EdJVOWcJI_LggT1mIHoAw&usg=AFQjCNE0GwAfhKOUpDyD3ZVYJJvxWp37AA&bvm=bv.77880786,d.eXY> Longman, P 2004, ‘Everywhere, Even in Africa, the World is Running out of Children,’ New Statesman, May 2005, Viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.newstatesman.com/node/148063> Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) 2010, Zambia: Population and National Development, Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Lusaka, Zambia Sachs, J D 2001, ‘Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development,’ Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Geneva: World Health Organization United Nations 2007, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlight, ESA/P/WP.202, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, New York.
UWI Mona
10/22/2014
Economic development is a phenomenon that has been discussed, debated about over the years, however; a conclusive process has not been developed as to how it can be attained. The main goal of economic development is improving the economic well being of a community through efforts that entail job creation, job retention, tax base enhancements and quality of life (Harrison 1992). Economic development ultimately speaks about a country’s wealth and it influences fertility and mortality rates and the “how” will be discussed in the scope of this essay. The more developed a country is the lower their mortality and fertility rates would be while if they are less developed the factors would be higher. These are considered to be indicators of development and one such model that depicts this is known as the Demographic Transition model. This model was proposed by Warren Thompson in 1929 and was based on interpretations of demographic history where he observed changes or transitions in birth and death rates in industrialized societies. When birth rates exceed death rates the population will grow and fertility rates are closely related to birth rates and is often a more useful measure as it is unaffected by the age distribution of the population (Haupt et al 2004). Fertility rate is defined as the average number of children born to each woman over the course of her life (Haupt et al 2004).
Looking more closely at the correlation between economic development and fertility rates using empirical data you can see where one influences another. High fertility rates can put a strain on governments experiencing such situations. High fertility rates in less developed countries occur because of high infant mortality. In poor agrarian societies, fatalism is prominent. Most people’s livelihoods are dependent upon the weather, disease, and accident because they lack the wealth and accompanying infrastructure to gain independence from their environment (Harrison 1992). This fatal society caused by lack of wealth increases child mortality rates. Operating under such life uncertainty, women over-insure by having many children (Longman 2004). In 2006, the more developed countries, the average women needed to have 2.1 children to replace the population. However, in war torn Sierra Leone, the average woman needed to have 3.43 children to replace the population. The actual fertility rate was 6.47 (UN 2007). This discrepancy between the actual fertility rate and the required fertility rate is due to the fact that people’s behavior is not often calculative. In societies with high infant mortality, there is an exponentially larger fertility rate to insure for the possibility of child death. An impoverished mother would think that the costs of losing her children are much higher than the costs to the world of overpopulation. Therefore, the given uncertainty makes her over insure by having more children. This interplay with development because a country that can afford the desired health care needed to reduce infant mortality would promote confidence in mothers to only have the desired amount of kids and not worry about their children dying a few weeks after birth.
One country that can be used to cement these arguments is Zambia. The Zambian population has grown rapidly over the years wherein the population grew from only about 2.3 million people in1950 to 9.9 million at the time of the 2000 census. By 2009, the population had grown further to nearly 13 million persons (MoFNP 2010). This rapid population growth is, in part and largely, due to Zambia’s high fertility rate where Zambian women have 6.2 children each, on average one of the higher levels of fertility in Africa (MoFNP 2010). Zambia’s fertility rate has been high for so long that it caused the country to have a very youthful population where 46% of the population is under the age of 15 (MoFNP 2010). This therefore increases the dependency ratio of Zambia and puts additional stress on the Zambian government. The government would then put a strain on the economically active persons as they are the ones paying the taxes. The number of students to one teacher would increase, which will ultimately affect the country’s literacy rates. The patient doctor ratio would also increase, therefore putting a strain on the health sector which correlates with mortality rates. One perfect example of this is the recent occurrence of a man dying in the Spanish Town hospital after complaining about stomach aches. He was in the hospital in Jamaica, for a long period of time awaiting the doctor’s assistance but never received it. This therefore shows that the mortality rates can increase if there are only a few doctors to help the sick. There would be a greater demand for housing, transportation, roads, water and sanitation, energy and employment. The high population growth in Zambia will only exacerbate the already poor living condition. The country’s wealth can be examined as the government will not be able to hire more professionals such as teachers or doctors and they also cannot afford to build new houses thus causing an increase in squatter settlements. If they do build houses they would be made from cheap materials making the buildings more hazardous in natural disasters thus increasing the mortality rates. Fertility rates therefore have a very strong correlation to the development of the country as it is a determinant of a growing or declining population.
The mortality rates as stated before also helps to indicate a country’s economic development. High mortality rates would indicate that a country is less developed according to the stages in the demographic transition model and as these rates decrease the country’s economic status will increase. As this model is outdated and was based solely on the industrialized societies at the time it was developed. Mortality rates coincide with economic growth as it is said that poverty (low economic growth) causes a high increase in death rates. This is because the relationship between mortality and poverty is bi-directional. On one hand, a poor country is unable to afford sanitation and proper medical care which causes their citizens to die young thus increasing the mortality rate. On the other hand, where people have a short time horizon because they are expected to die young, they have fewer reasons to save therefore causing the economy not to grow (Lorentzen et al 2005). A steady decline in adult mortality (while child mortality stayed level) accounts for 70% of the growth acceleration from 1700-1820 (Boucekkine et al. 2003) which shows a direct correlation of economic growth and mortality rates. Bleakley (2003) finds that eliminating hookworm, a non-fatal condition afflicting children, boosted human capital accumulation in the American South while Sachs (2001) presented a policy case for boosting investments in health, particularly malaria eradication, to promote economic development. This also shows how a good health care unit can reduce mortality rates and ultimately improve development.
In conclusion fertility and mortality rates can determine a country’s economic wealth while a country’s economic wealth can determine the country’s fertility and mortality rates. These two indicators can also be affected by different factors contributing to them being high or low. Population growth is very dynamic and therefore there can be changes constantly.
References
Bleakley, H 2003, ‘Disease and Development: Evidence from the American South,’ Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 1, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1162/154247603322391017/abstract>
Boucekkine, R Croix, D & Licandro, O 2003, ‘Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Economic Growth,’ Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 105, pp. 401-418, October 21, 2014, <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=443769>
Harrison, P 1992, The Third Revolution: Environment, Population and a Sustainable World, Tauris and CO Ltd, London.
Haupt, A & Thomas, K 2004, Population Handbook, Population Reference Bureau , 5th edn, Washington, DC, viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.prb.org/pdf/pophandbook_eng.pdf>
Lorentzen, P McMillan, J Wacziarg, R 2005, Death and Development, Stanford University, California, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://www.google.com.jm/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEsQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F5149836_Death_and_development%2Flinks%2F0912f50aaeb7159c4e000000&ei=9EdJVOWcJI_LggT1mIHoAw&usg=AFQjCNE0GwAfhKOUpDyD3ZVYJJvxWp37AA&bvm=bv.77880786,d.eXY>
Longman, P 2004, ‘Everywhere, Even in Africa, the World is Running out of Children,’ New Statesman, May 2005, Viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.newstatesman.com/node/148063>
Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) 2010, Zambia: Population and National Development, Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Lusaka, Zambia
Sachs, J D 2001, ‘Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development,’ Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Geneva: World Health Organization
United Nations 2007, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlight, ESA/P/WP.202, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, New York.
References: Bleakley, H 2003, ‘Disease and Development: Evidence from the American South,’ Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 1, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1162/154247603322391017/abstract> Boucekkine, R Croix, D & Licandro, O 2003, ‘Early Mortality Declines at the Dawn of Modern Economic Growth,’ Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 105, pp. 401-418, October 21, 2014, <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=443769> Harrison, P 1992, The Third Revolution: Environment, Population and a Sustainable World, Tauris and CO Ltd, London. Haupt, A & Thomas, K 2004, Population Handbook, Population Reference Bureau , 5th edn, Washington, DC, viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.prb.org/pdf/pophandbook_eng.pdf> Lorentzen, P McMillan, J Wacziarg, R 2005, Death and Development, Stanford University, California, viewed on October 21, 2014, <http://www.google.com.jm/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEsQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fpublication%2F5149836_Death_and_development%2Flinks%2F0912f50aaeb7159c4e000000&ei=9EdJVOWcJI_LggT1mIHoAw&usg=AFQjCNE0GwAfhKOUpDyD3ZVYJJvxWp37AA&bvm=bv.77880786,d.eXY> Longman, P 2004, ‘Everywhere, Even in Africa, the World is Running out of Children,’ New Statesman, May 2005, Viewed on October 20, 2014, <http://www.newstatesman.com/node/148063> Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) 2010, Zambia: Population and National Development, Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Lusaka, Zambia Sachs, J D 2001, ‘Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development,’ Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, Geneva: World Health Organization United Nations 2007, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlight, ESA/P/WP.202, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, New York.