Why Do Political Leaders Choose Intelligence?

Major indicators that cause political leaders to ignore intelligence warnings originate in cognitive biases that create their mindset. These mindsets can lead political leaders to ignore intelligence warnings by either creating unrealistic expectations of intelligence, or politicizing intelligence that support their policy preferences. Political leaders crave a confident amount of certainty and accuracy in intelligence reports. Their cognitive biases assume that intelligence should be perfect, in that intelligence should be delivered in a timely fashion, be actionable, and be relevant to political leaders. Unfortunately, analysts are unable to provide intelligence in such a manner. As a result, political leaders will ignore intelligence because
If a political leader prefers a certain policy, they may exaggerate its likelihood of succeeding. Alternatively, if a political leader is convinced that it has only one option for achieving a highly desired goal, there is a tendency to interpret incoming information in a way that suggests that this option will be a successful one. These cognitive biases lead to what some critics call the politicization of intelligence. Politicization of intelligence occurs when decision makers guide the information being collected, rather than the information leading the decision maker, to an outcome. Decision makers politicize intelligence in two ways; “Cherry picking” information and direct pressure on analysts. “Cherry picking” information refers to when decision makers pick their favorite assessment or evidence from intelligence reports, all the while ignoring alternative assessments. Direct pressure refers to when decision makers come to an intelligence conclusion that is in accordance with their policy preference. Both actions allow for intelligence to be ignored as political leaders seek exclusive information that align with their cognitive biases or preferred