World Population

Mid-Term Research Paper
Japan, Russia, North & South Korea
Sammy Holmes
30 November, 2012

Japan, Russia, North & South Korea Comparing and contrasting many demographics of Japan, Russia, North Korea, and South Korea turned up many interesting details. Over the course of approximately one hundred years, these countries have all gone to war multiple times. I have discovered many statistics that parallel my initial instincts as to what I would find, and I have also found statistics that dispute what I, at first, believed I would uncover. Looking into Japan’s demographics it is easy to see why its total fertility rate, life expectancy, total population, and other demographic identities have changed over the past century. Even with its TFR well below replenishment level, their population has continued to grow until recently when the growth rate has decreased and actually turned negative to -.077% (CIA 2012). It is noticeable the effects of WW1, WW2, and the Korean War have had on its population. During each of these wars the TFR dropped at the start of the war, slightly rose at the return of the men, and then continued to decline. As far back as 1800, the life expectancy of the Japanese has led the world (Rosling 2008). The only exception to this was at during WW2, when life expectancy dropped to 31 years (Rosling 2008). With a low birth rate of 8.39 and a low death rate of 9.15 (CIA 2012), it is easy to see they are not producing enough children to sustain their population.
The population pyramid of Japan of 1990 compared to predictions in 1920 and 1950 show a gradual but distinct inversion of the age structure (Nation Master 2010). This will lead to a greater elderly population with a younger population possibly unable to provide the necessary care. Japan’s population ages sixty-five and older is predominately women, with only 76% of a man per woman. Thus leading to the conclusion, women will be taking care of other women, during old age. I do think this population shift, although fairly swift, will be slow enough to not cause an economic disaster. Especially, since the income per person in Japan has increased tremendously after 1965, and in 2010 had the average Japanese person earning 30,866 per year. South Korea and North Korea have very similar characteristics and trends right up until 1995 when it is evident South Korea started dominating economically and in life expectancy. Their age structures of male to female are relatively similar only differing somewhat in ages 0-14. Their sex ratios are also closely linked almost equaling 50/50 throughout infancy until sixty-four years of age. Both populations ages sixty-five and older are compromised mainly of women (CIA 2012). Currently North Korea is growing at a higher percentage than South Korea; .535% and .204% respectively (CIA 2012). Their TFRs were almost mirror images until the start of WW1, when North Korea’s plunged to 1.8 by 1950 (Rosling 2008). South Korea’s TFR also plummeted, but not nearly as low only reaching 4 by 1950 (Rosling 2008). Judging by the population pyramids of both North and South Korea, there is an evident shift in the population trend with less children being born than in previous years. An inverse triangling effect seems to be occurring, where more women are living longer, and having fewer babies. Although similar to the occurrence in Japan, the increase of an elderly population in North and South Korea is nowhere close as dramatic. South Korea, sponsored by the United States until 1960, was given greater opportunities to be successful. With a birth rate of 8.42 per 1,000 people, and a death rate of 6.38 per 1,000 (CIA 2012), and a very low infant mortality, their population is still growing, but very slowly. South Korea experienced a similar baby boom effect after the Korean War, but for the most part has had a steadily declining TFR. Unlike Japan, after WW2, the total population and life expectancy of South Korea did not drop dramatically due to WW2 or the Korean War, they both climbed almost steadily until 2000, when a plateau-ing effect seemed to occur. Major trouble for North Korea does not seem very farfetched with their declining economic situation. Their population is not growing at an expedient force, yet it is enough to yield a lower income per person each year. With its relatively high birth rate, also comes a higher infant mortality rate at 26.21 deaths per 1,000 babies born (CIA 2012). Being under USSR control until 1960 did not help their current situation, and when the USSR fell in 1991 there is an evident downfall in their economy. Currently, in North Korea, the income per person is close to 1,600, very close to what it was in 1945. In South Korea, it is estimated the average income per person is 25,256. Right up until 1975 North and South Korea had an average income per person 3,200 (Rosling 2008). “Almost immediately, North Korea fell into arrearage on its hard currency debts, its commerce with OECD countries subsequently collapsed” (Eberstdat 1999:Chapter 1). Russian society today could be termed unstable. With a current declining population, Russia has on average lost an average of 382,694 people a year every year for the past fifteen. With this loss also comes a gain, their income per person has steadily increased since the fall of USSR in 1991 (Rosling 2008). A higher death rate, and lower birth rate are complimenting its decrease in population, but they are not the sole cause for its population decrease. Many Russians are simply immigrating out of the historically rocky environment. A bulk of the Russian population is between the ages of fifteen and sixty four leaving almost equal proportions for below fifteen and over sixty-five. Of this bulk, there is approximately 90% of a man per woman, with a much less percentage (43% of a man per woman) of the population being male over the age of sixty five (CIA 2012). These numbers, along with the same results of North Korea, South Korea and Japan, only verify further that women live longer than men. During the Japanese-Russo War, WW1, WW2, and the fall of the USSR there are very evident trends in the demographics of Russia. The TFR would drop during the wars, then go up slightly after the return home of the men. There was either a drop or plateau effect of life expectancy during each of these events as well. Russia’s total population was one continually growing aspect. Even with the constant growth, there is evidence, around the times of these events that support the conclusion, growth did slow down. The average income per person was another growing factor until the fall of the USSR when it dipped down drastically, but has since started rising again. With a population that is 99% literate and 3.9% of its gross domestic product spent on education (CIA 2012), it can be assumed that Russia will increase its population through knowledge and life expectancy. Right now the life expectancy of a Russian is 69 years old (Rosling 2008). With continued and further education, this number is sure to rise, and the death rate will fall. In conclusion, I have verified, that over all, significant observations can be made of population statistics and the concurrence of wars. Almost every war or major event had an effect on demographics. When a war started, TFR dropped, when the war ended, a rise in fertility occurred for a short period of time. Even when there was a temporary dip during a war, life expectancy picked up where it had left off previously, and continued growing until another war. North Korea is the only country that has not had an increase in income per person in recent years, but this can be attributed to the massive debt they incurred in 1975. All four of the population pyramids are seeming to have the same inverted triangle effect. Japan’s is the most drastic, followed by South Korea, North Korea then lastly Russia. I do think that while there will be difficulties ahead for Japan, their overall economic and educational advantage will not cause a catastrophe for them.

Japan Population Pyramid

North Korea Population Pyramid

South Korea Population Pyramid
(present and predicted)

Population Pyramid Russia

References
Anonymous. “N.d.” “20th Century.” Valencia, CA: Life in Asia, Inc. HQ. Retrieved March 8, 2012 (http://www.lifeinkorea.com/Business/about.cfm).
Anonymous. “N.d.” “Korean War.” Valencia, CA: Life in Asia, Inc. HQ. Retrieved March 8, 2012 (http://www.lifeinkorea.com/Business/about.cfm).
Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Japan. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/geos/ja.html).
Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Korea, North. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html).
Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Korea, South. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html).
Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Russia. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html).
Eberstadt, Nicholas. 1999. “North Korea’s Evolving Unification Policy.”Ch.1 in The End of North Korea. New York: American Enterprise Institute Press.
Jelavich, Barbara. 1991. Russia’s Balkan Entanglements: 1806-1914. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rosling, Hans. 2008. “Explore Gapminder World Yourself.” Stockholm, Sweden: Division of Global Health. Retrieved March 8, 2012 (http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=2010$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNPA;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0TAlJeCEzcGQ;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL_n5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=lin;dataMin=12;dataMax=83$map_y;scale=log;dataMin=0.85;dataMax=9.2$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=i116_p001800blae;i184_h001800bmae;i117_h001800a5aL;i110_p001800bPbD).
Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku. 2008. “Chapter 2 population.” Tokyo, Japan: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Retrieved March 12, 2012 (http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/286922/www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c02cont.htm).
2003. “Asia>Russia>Age Distribution.” Washington, DC: United States Censuss Bureau Retrieved March 12, 2012 (http://www.nationmaster.com/country/rs/Age_distribution).

References: Anonymous. “N.d.” “20th Century.” Valencia, CA: Life in Asia, Inc. HQ. Retrieved March 8, 2012 (http://www.lifeinkorea.com/Business/about.cfm). Anonymous. “N.d.” “Korean War.” Valencia, CA: Life in Asia, Inc. HQ. Retrieved March 8, 2012 (http://www.lifeinkorea.com/Business/about.cfm). Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Japan. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/geos/ja.html). Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Korea, North. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/kn.html). Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Korea, South. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html). Central Intelligence Agency. 2012. “The World Factbook” Russia. Washington, DC: Retrieved March 11, 2012 (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html). Eberstadt, Nicholas. 1999. “North Korea’s Evolving Unification Policy.”Ch.1 in The End of North Korea. New York: American Enterprise Institute Press. Jelavich, Barbara. 1991. Russia’s Balkan Entanglements: 1806-1914. New York: Cambridge University Press. Rosling, Hans. 2008. “Explore Gapminder World Yourself.” Stockholm, Sweden: Division of Global Health Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku. 2008. “Chapter 2 population.” Tokyo, Japan: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Retrieved March 12, 2012 (http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/286922/www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c02cont.htm). 2003. “Asia>Russia>Age Distribution.” Washington, DC: United States Censuss Bureau Retrieved March 12, 2012 (http://www.nationmaster.com/country/rs/Age_distribution).