Geography - India's Population

Population case study: India | Geography HL |

Contents: 1. Population Transition: Structure and composition 2. Population Issues 3. Population Policies in response to population issues a. Evaluate and assess 4. Population trends: Possible scenarios b. DTM – fifth stage

Population Transition: Structure and composition
Introduction
* India is a country with a considerably young population as compared to many others in the world. * It is estimated that almost 40% of Indians are younger than 15 years of age. * Though it only occupies 2.4% of the world 's land area, it supports over 15% of the world 's population, with only China having a larger population size. * High population density * The population in India on 1st March 2001 stood at 1,027,015,247 persons. * Estimated that India 's population would rise to 1,129,866,154 by July 2007. * India 's population rose by 21.34 % between 1991 and 2001. * Sex ratio (Females : Males) * 1991 – 927:1000 * 2001 – 933: 1000
India’s population structure (1990-2010) Period | Births per year | Deaths per year | Natural change per year | CBR1 | CDR1 | NC1 | TFR1 | IMR1 | 1990–1995 | 27,566,000 | 9,400,000 | 18,166,000 | 30.0 | 10.2 | 19.8 | 3.72 | 76.4 | 1995–2000 | 27,443,000 | 9,458,000 | 17,985,000 | 27.2 | 9.4 | 17.8 | 3.31 | 68.9 | 2000–2005 | 27,158,000 | 9,545,000 | 17,614,000 | 24.8 | 8.7 | 16.1 | 2.96 | 60.7 | 2005–2010 | 27,271,000 | 9,757,000 | 17,514,000 | 23.1 | 8.3 | 14.8 | 2.73 | 52.9 | General trend | decrease | Increase | decrease | decrease | decrease | decrease | decrease | decrease |

India’s population growth throughout the 20th century * India has been in the midst of a demographic transition throughout the twentieth century. * At the beginning of this century, numeral diseases, epidemics, and famines caused a high death rate such that it balanced out the high birth rate. * Between 1911 and 1920, the birth and death rates were around the same * I.e. about 48 births and 48 deaths per 1,000 people in the population. * The death rate was gradually declining because of medical advancements such as inoculation. * In the early 1990s, there was a significant growth in central and southern India cities. * A growth rate of more than 100% was observed between 1981 and 1991 in about twenty cities in those two regions. * There were some areas that experienced substantial population growth when they experienced influxes of refugees from Bangladesh, Burma, and Sri Lanka. * Around mid-1990s, the estimated birth rate had fallen to 28 per 1,000, and the estimated death rate had fallen to 10 per 1,000.
Population Doubling Time * Population doubling time refers to the time taken by any population to double itself at its current annual growth rate. * The growth rate of population in India over the last one century has been caused by fluctuations in the annual birth rate and death rate as well as the rate of migration, thus showing different trends. * Phase I: from 1901-1921, referred to the period of stationary or stagnant stage of India’s growth. * Growth rate during this period was very low, even hitting a negative value in 1911-1921. * Birth rate and death rate were high, keeping the rate of increase low. * Due to poor health and medical service, general illiteracy of people as well as poor distribution of food contributed to the high rate birth and death rates. * Phase II: the period of 1921-1951 is known as the period of steady population growth. * The improvements in medical facilities and care brought down the mortality rate. * Advancements in communication and transport systems led to better distribution of necessities. * Birth rate remained high during this period which led to an overall higher growth rate than the previous stage, which was surprising given the occurrence of the Great Depression and World War II. * Phase III: In the period between 1951and 1981 India experienced a population explosion. * This is as mortality rate was rapidly falling while there was a high fertility rate in the country. * Annual growth rate was as high as 2.2%. * After independence, there were development activities as well as an improvement in the economy which generally brought about better living conditions for the people. * There was a high rate of natural increase and high growth rate, with the influx of immigrants from places such as Tibet and Nepal contributing to the high growth rate. * Phase IV: post 1981 till the 21st century, the growth rate of the country’s population remained high but there was a gradual slow down * Due to the decreasing crude birth rate. * This is affected by an increase in mean age of marriage in the country as well as better education available to females in the country. * However, growth rate is still considerably high.
Population statistics (1951-2001) Year | 1951 | 1961 | 1971 | 1981 | 1991 | 2001 | Population (in millions) | 361.1 | 439.2 | 548.2 | 683.3 | 846.4 | 1028.7 | Growth over decade (%) | 13.3 | 21.6 | 24.8 | 24.7 | 23.9 | 21.5 | | Population by broader age-groups (%) | 1951 | 1961 | 1971 | 1981 | 1991 | 2001 | 0-14 | 38.4 | 41.0 | 42.0 | 39.5 | 37.5 | 35.4 | 15-59 | 56.0 | 53.3 | 52.0 | 54.0 | 55.7 | 57.0 | 60+ | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.5 |

Growth of Population * Growth of population refers mainly to the change in the number of people living in a particular area within a certain period of time expressed as a percentage. * The two components of population growth are natural growth and induced growth. * Natural growth is analysed through examining the crude birth and death rates. * Induced growth is namely the volume of inward and outward movement of people in any given area. * The growth rates of population in India annually and every decade are very high and steadily increasing over time. * The annual growth rate of India’s population is 2.4%, and with this current rate of increase, it is estimated that the country’s population will double itself in another 36 years and will exceed even the population of China.

Year | 1951 | 1961 | 1971 | 1981 | 1991 | 2001 | Sex Ratio (females per 1000 males) | 946 | 941 | 930 | 934 | 927 | 933 | Urban population (%) | 17.3 | 18.0 | 19.9 | 23.3 | 25.7 | 27.8 | Density (number of persons per sq. kms) | 117 | 142 | 177 | 216 | 274 | 325 |

* It can be seen that there was a decrease in the number of females in the population from 1951 to 1971, but after that period the numbers fluctuated around 930 females per 1000 males. * The number of people living in urban areas has steadily increased which shows how more people are coming to live in cities and moving away from countryside and rural ways of life as the country develops and matures. * The density of people has changed as well and it can be seen that India is becoming more densely populated with more people living in the same area. This could be attributed to the increase in high rise developments as compared to single houses spread out over a large are in the past.
Population Density Of India * The density of population in India as of 2011 is 364 persons per sq km, ranking second among the most densely populated countries of Asia after Bangladesh (population density - 849 persons per sq km). There has been a steady increase of approximately 250 persons per sq km over the last 50 years. In 1951 the population density was 117 persons per sq km and in 2011 it became 364 persons per sq km.

India’s population structure – POPULATION PYRAMIDS Year | Population pyramid | Description | 1995 | | It can be seen from the population pyramids that India’s population from 1995 to 2000 has remained relatively the same. It can be seen that the mortality rate is low as the people who were previously living in India in 1995 have mostly moved up the age interval on the population pyramid without any significant decrease in numbers. There is still an evident general upward trend. The birth rate remains high, much higher than the death rate. | 2000 | | | 2005 | | There is a more significant change in population structure from 2005 to 2010. The number of people of each age group remains about the same as the years pass, showing that increase in medical care has brought about a much lower mortality rate. The birth rate is decreasing as number of children aged 0-4 in 2010 is noticeably less than the number of children for the same age group in 2005. There is evidence of a drop in numbers for the age group of children represented by the pink bar. | 2010 | | | 2020 | | The predicted population pyramid of India in 2020 shows another substantial change in shape. The birth rate is remaining high and the number of people in each age group remains generally the same. The 2050 population pyramid is becoming similar to that of an inverted bell with the base only slightly wider than the top. Birth rate remains steady while death rate decreases drastically. It is predicted in 2050 that there will still be a big majority of the people in the dark blue age group still living, suggesting the quality of medical science by that time. There are also significant changes in people in various age groups ranging from 30-79 years old, indicating the impact of migration on population numbers. | 2050 | | |

Percentage distribution of population by broad age groups to total population by sex and residence, India, 2010 Residence | Sex | Broad Age Group (Years) | | | 0-4 | 5-9 | 10-14 | 0-14 | 15-59 | 60+ | 15-64 | 65+ | Total | Total | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 30.9 | 61.6 | 7.5 | 64.1 | 5.0 | | Male | 10.2 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 31.5 | 61.4 | 7.2 | 63.9 | 4.7 | | Female | 9.8 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 32.0 | 61.9 | 7.8 | 64.4 | 5.3 | Rural | Total | 10.6 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 32.4 | 60.0 | 7.5 | 62.2 | 5.1 | | Male | 10.8 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 33.1 | 59.7 | 7.2 | 62.5 | 4.7 | | Female | 10.4 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 31.7 | 60.4 | 7.9 | 62.9 | 5.5 | Urban | Total | 8.4 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 26.7 | 65.9 | 7.3 | 68.5 | 4.8 | | Male | 8.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 27.3 | 65.7 | 7.0 | 68.2 | 4.5 | | Female | 8.2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 26.1 | 66.2 | 7.7 | 68.7 | 5.2 |

* Rural – Urban Composition
Composition of population by their respective places of residence is an important indicator of social and economic characteristics. * This becomes even more significant for a country where about 72 per cent of its total population lives in villages. India has 638,588 villages according to the Census 2001 out of which 593,731 (93 per cent) are inhabited villages. * The size of villages also varies considerably. It is less than 200 persons in the hill states of north-eastern India, Western Rajasthan and Rann of Kuchchh and as high as 17 thousand persons in the states of Kerala and in parts of Maharashtra. * The proportion of urban population (27.8 per cent) in India is quite low but it is showing a much faster rate of growth over the decades. In fact since 1931, the growth rate of urban population has accelerated due to enhanced economic development and improvement in health and hygienic conditions.

Linguistic Composition * India is a land of linguistic diversity. There are 179 languages and as many as 544 dialects in the country. In the context of modern India, there are about 18 scheduled languages (1991 census) and a number of nonscheduled languages. * Among the scheduled languages, the speakers of Hindi have the highest percentage (40.42). * The smallest language groups are Kashmiri and Sanskrit speakers (0.01 per cent each).

Religious Composition * Interestingly enough, it can be noted that the regions falling in the river plains and coastal areas of India have remained the regions of larger population concentration. Although the uses of natural resources like land and water in these regions have shown the sign of degradation, the concentration of population remains high because of an early history of human settlement and development of transport network. * However, the urban regions of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore and Chennai etc. have high concentration of population due to industrial development and urbanisation drawing a large numbers of rural-urban migrants. * In India, Hindus are distributed as a major group in many states, ranging from 70 - 90 per cent and above in each area, thus being the majority in the country. Muslims are the largest religious minority form majority in Kashmir valley and Lakshadweep. * The Christian population is mostly found in the rural areas of the country. Sikhs mainly reside in relatively small areas of the country, especially in the states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, while Jains and Buddhists (the smallest religious groups in India) have their concentration only in selected areas of the country.
Employment
* The percentage of workers is only 39 per cent as of 2001, hence leaving a great majority of 61 per cent as non-workers. * This shows an economic status whereby there is a larger proportion of dependent population, which indicates a possible existence of a large number of unemployed or under employed people. * It is estimated that 58.2 per cent of total working population are cultivators and agricultural labourers whereas only 4.2% of workers are engaged in household industries and 37.6 % are other workers including non-household industries, trade, commerce, construction and repair and other services.

Population issues: Overpopulation
Overpopulation
“The excessive population of an area to the point of overcrowding, depletion of natural resources, or environmental deterioration.”
High Birth Rate * 22.22 births/1,000 population (2009 est.) * Resources do not increase as the population increases. * Instead, resources keep decreasing, leading to making survival for a human being more and more competitive * Vicious cycle of poverty as families produce more children to support the family (helping hands) * Lack of awareness of birth control methods * India’s culture also plays a huge part in the overpopulation, with a lot of families preferring to have a son than a daughter. Thus, they have more children than they want.

Decreasing Death Rate * Infant mortality rate decreased due to advances in technology * Live expectancy increased too

Population Policies in response to population issues: Evaluate and assess
National Population Policy (NPP) – 2000
Considerations
* The growth in population was due to * large size of the population within the reproductive age group * Increasing life expectancy * High fertility caused by inadequate availability of contraception and girls marrying at a young age (below 18) (This lead to longer child-bearing periods and therefore higher birth rates) * High wanted fertility due to high infant mortality rates

Important objectives of the policy * Provide contraception facilities and health care infrastructure with emphasis on basic reproductive and child health care * Access to information of birth limitation methods and availability of totally free choice to citizens for planning their families * Bring the TFR to the replacement levels by 2010 * Achieve a stable population by 2045 * Reduce infant mortality rate to below 30 per 1000 live births * Reduce maternal mortality ratio to below 100 per 100,000 live births * Promote delayed marriage for girls (Not earlier than 18yrs and preferably after the age of 20) * Universalization of primary education and reduction in the dropout rates at primary and secondary levels to below 20% both for boys and girls. * Support to be provided to state governments as per requirement and availability of infrastructure * Involvement of Panchayati Raj institutions for coordination among activities of different agencies, supervision of health care related infrastructure like Primary Health Centre and Aanganwadis and ensuring community participation * The policy projected population of the country on March, 2011 to be 117.89 crores (a unit in the South Asian numbering system equal to ten million)

Targets and achievements | 1951 | 2009/2010 | Difference | % Difference | Birth Rate | 40.8 | 22 | -18.8 | -46.1% | Infant Mortality Rate | 146 | 50 | -96 | -65.8% | Death Rate | 25 | 7.4 | -17.6 | -70.4% | Total Fertility Rate | 6 | 2.6 | -3.4 | -56.7% |

* These figures indicate that India has made substantial progress in population management since 1951. * However, the current population is much higher than targets made under the NPP. * Similarly, with respect to TFR, NPP targeted replacement levels by 2000 and NPP targeted these levels by 2010. * However, the figure for 2009 is 2.6 which is significantly higher than the target. * At the current rate, India may take approximately another 10 years to achieve this level of TFR * NPP sets the target of achieving a stable population by 2045, that is, after 35 years of achieving the replacement level * Appear unrealistic considering the example of China which attained replacement level of TFR in 1990 * China’s population is still growing and expected to achieve peak level only in 2050, after which it will stabilize or gradually decline. * Thus in China, peak level is expected to be achieved after 60 years of achieving replacement level of fertility rates. * As India’s population policies are less rigorous compared to China’s, the time taken by India to achieve a stable population is likely to be much higher (that is, only in the later part of this century)
Reasons for underachievement * Unlike China, India has employed voluntary participation (in contrast to strict legislation) in population control measures * Hence, the efficacy of these measures is dependent on the ability to convince people to have a smaller family. * This makes literacy level a very important factor * As per Census, 2011, Kerala, which has the highest literacy rate of 93.91%, has a very low annual growth rate of 0.48% while Bihar which has the lowest literacy rate of 63.82% has a high annual growth rate of 2.26% * Poverty is another important factor * In such families, an additional child is treated as a potential earning hand – hence, birth of another child is not discouraged (Economic asset) * In a number of areas – particularly remote ones, adequate health and birth control facilities are not available. As such, the people are unable to adopt family planning measures. * Social factors – marriage * Traditional Indian society favours the early marriage of girls Longer reproductive period Higher fertility rate
Future prospects * The main problem lies not with the population policies but with their implementation. * Population growth is intrinsically linked to economic and social improvement and the target of a stable population can only be achieved through * Drastic improvements in literacy levels * Availability of health care and family planning facilities * Implementation of measures to eradicate poverty.

Population trends: Possible scenarios
India 's Population 2013 Current Population of India in 2013 | 1,270,272,105 (1.27 billion) | Total Male Population in India | 655,875,026 (655.8 million) | Total Female Population in India | 614,397,079 (614.4 million) | Sex Ratio | 940 females per 1,000 males | Age structure | 0 to 25 years | 50% of India 's current population | Currently, there are about 51 births in India in a minute. | India 's Population in 2012 | 1.22 billion | India 's Population in 2011 | 1.21 billion |

2030 * The end of 2030 - 1.53 billion people * An intervening rate of population growth averaging about 1.1% per year. * Twenty years from now, India will still be a rather youthful country, with 8%–9% of its population 65 years of age or older and a median age of 31–32 years (compared to roughly 13% and 37 years, respectively, for the United States today). * About 68% of India 2030’s population will comprise men and women of working age (conventionally defined as the 15–64 group), compared with 65% today. This means that the working-age manpower is set to grow more rapidly than overall population in the decades immediately ahead, by about 1.3% per annum on average. * By 2030, UNPD anticipates India’s life expectancy to reach 70 years, and by its projections, the India of 2030 will be about 40% urban, up from an estimated 30% today.
Fertility assumptions * Replacement level fertility -- “two-child norm.” * When this replacement level is reached, a population will eventually cease growing and enter a “zero-growth” condition. A TFR of 2.1 is usually specified as the replacement level. This is 2.1 rather than 2.0 since not all women survive to the end of their childbearing years so that women who do must compensate and because, worldwide, there are 105 male babies born for every 100 females, the normal sex ratio at birth. * Two population scenarios, labeled A and B were prepared. These differ in only one respect, the “target” TFR, used as a final value. Scenario A, the higher of the two, makes the assumption that 2.1, the classic replacement level fertility value, will be the final value for states where it is currently above 2.1. In Scenario B, the target is 1.85 for those states above that value. For states with very low TFRs, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the TFR was assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period. * Utilizes the past trend in a state’s fertility decline pattern to project future decline along the logistic curve. * Figures 3 and 4 illustrate this process for two states, Karnataka, a state with relatively low current fertility, and Uttar Pradesh, a state with relatively higher fertility. * The past trend in the TFR was taken from India’s Sample Registration System (SRS), a data collection programme virtually unique among developing countries.

2 scenarios of India’s future population * Both assume that fertility will decline continuously to the point where couples average two children each, the goal of India’s National Population Policy 2000. * 1st scenario: States with higher current fertility will decline to the “replacement level” of 2.1 children, a common assumption in projections. Results in an India of two billion population * 2nd scenario: The decline will continue to 1.85 children, near the level observed in states such as Kerala. Results in eventual population decline.

Scenario A * Scenario A: the Population that does, in fact, reach two billion, occurring in 2066- 2071. * By the end of the projection period, in 2101, four states, today’s Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh would account for almost half of the country’s population. * Scenario B, with a final TFR of 1.85, does not reach two billion. Under Scenario B, growth peaks in 2081-2086, after which it begins a period of population decrease. * Which scenario is more likely? Different users will have different opinions as to the appropriateness of the scenarios as they apply to each state. * Over such a long period, many different events may influence population trends. States with low fertility today may become concerned about population ageing and decline and encourage more births. Such a turnaround may seem unlikely today, yet precisely this has happened in some countries of Asia which once advocated lower birth rates. * Pressure on the availability of agricultural land may cause accelerated migration to urban areas and result in faster fertility decline. Perhaps, continuing son preference will act to keep fertility somewhat higher. Factors affecting population * Some of the reasons for India 's rapidly growing population are poverty, illiteracy, high fertility rate, rapid decline in death rates or mortality rates and immigration from Bangladesh and Nepal. * Sex Ratio at Birth * Mortality * Migration

Family planning * Alarmed by its swelling population, India started taking measures to stem the growth rate quite early. * In fact India, by launching the National Family Planning programme in 1952 became the first country in the world to have a population policy. * The family planning programme yielded some noticeable results, bringing down significantly the country 's fertility rate. Contraceptive usage * In 1965-2009, the contraceptive usage more than tripled and the fertility rate more than halved. The efforts did produce positive results, however, failed to achieve the ultimate goal and the population of India since getting independence from Britain in 1947 increased almost three times. Food shortage * As the Indian population rises rapidly amidst its depleting land and water resources, the widespread hunger problem could grow worse unless serious steps are taken now to remedy the situation. * The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reported last year that hunger in India has grown over the last three years. * (From 2012) IFPRI said India 's hunger index score has worsened over the last three years from 23.7 to 23.9 to 24.1 and its ranking moved from 66 to 65 to 67 on a list of 84 nations while Pakistan 's hunger index score has improved over the same period reported since 2008 from 21.7 (2008) to 21.0 (2009) to 19.1 (2010) and its ranking has risen from 61 to 58 to 52. * This food shortage would have a tremendous effect on certain aspects of India’s population, like make the infant mortality rate increase, and in return the females would start having more children as the need for replacements arises Sex ratio at birth * The sex ratio at birth, or the number of girl babies born per 100 males, has emerged as a significant issue in India due to the practice of pre-birth sex selection and the abortion of female foetuses. * In recent years, the Indian government at the national and local level has introduced a variety of incentives and disincentives to curtail this illegal practice. For the projections, it was assumed that the sex ratio at birth would return to a global normal value of 95 female births per 100 male births during the first 35 years of the projection. Mortality * Target values of life expectancy were 85 years for males and 90 years for females, * The future impact of HIV/AIDS was not incorporated into the projections due to the lack of useable information on statewise data such as AIDS death rates which would be required. * Population projections from the National Commission on Population did incorporate HIV/AIDS at the national level and projected that the country’s population would be 16 million less with HIV/AIDS than without in 2026. * Since those projections were performed, the National AIDS Control Organisation has lowered its estimate of HIV prevalence from 0.9 to 0.36 percent of the population ages 15-49. * Users of the PFI/PRB projections may wish to take these factors into account. Migration * Migration presents particular challenges in a population projection due to its often unpredictable nature. * Net migration figures for states are available from Indian censuses and these were used as a basis for the projections. It was assumed that interstate migration would increase slowly in absolute terms from that observed for 1991-2001 from the 2001 Census and then slowly decrease, the latter a common assumption in projections. Results * It is expected that fertility in the higher fertility states will decline as it has in other states. It is expected that life expectancy at birth will continue to improve. In the absence of very sharp and unanticipated shifts in mortality trends, it is future fertility trends that will determine India’s future population size. * It is useful to compare the results obtained in this exercise with results obtained by other organizations. The 2006 National Commission on Population Projections projected the population of India and bigger states to the year 2026. The 2026 projected population that resulted is 1.40 billion. This can be compared to the Scenario * A population of 1.46 billion and that of Scenario B, 1.45 billion. * The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) also produces a projection of the total population of India in three variants, low, medium and high. * For 2025, these range from 1.37 to 1.55 billion. The UNPD extends their projections to 2050 and those projections range from 1.39 to 1.96 billion compared to Scenario A’s 1.81 and Scenario B’s 1.74 billion in 2050. A summary of the results is given in Table 1 and shown graphically in Figure 5.

References * http://www.indianchild.com/population_of_india.htm * http://populationpyramid.net/India/1995/ * http://www.nationmaster.com/country/in/Age_distribution * http://www.jsk.gov.in/indias_population.asp * http://www.currentaffairsindia.info/2012/03/population-distribution-density-growth.html * www.ubqool.com/static/contents/1722/41699.html * www.cnbc.com/id/49472962

References: * http://www.indianchild.com/population_of_india.htm * http://populationpyramid.net/India/1995/ * http://www.nationmaster.com/country/in/Age_distribution * http://www.jsk.gov.in/indias_population.asp * http://www.currentaffairsindia.info/2012/03/population-distribution-density-growth.html * www.ubqool.com/static/contents/1722/41699.html * www.cnbc.com/id/49472962