FORECASTING FORECASTING The Role of the Manager Planning Organizing Staffing Leading Controlling Future ? Data Information • Short-range • Medium-range • Long-range Features Common to All Forecasts Forecasting techniques generally assume that same underlying causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future. Forecasts are rarely perfect. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. Forecast
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Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process
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Marriott Corporation: The Cost of Capital (Abridged) General Approach The company is split into 3 divisions Lodging‚ Contract Services and Restaurants. The WACC for each of the 3 divisions and then subsequently the entire corporation’s WACC need to be calculated. This will be done through calculating the WACC for each of the 3 divisions and then taking a weighted average of these 3 divisional WACC numbers to get the overall Marriott Corporation WACC. 1. Calculating the Beta a
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FORECASTING Q1: Moving averages are often used to identify movements of stock prices. Weekly closing prices (in $ per share) for Toys Я Us for 22 September‚ 1997‚ through December 8‚ 1997‚ are as follows (Prudential Securities Inc); Month Sept 22 Sept 29 Oct 6 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 3 Nov 10 Nov 17 Nov 24 Dec 1 Dec 8 Fund Price 37.8750 35.6250 34.6875 33.5625 32.6250 34.0000 33.6250 35.0625 34.0625 34.1250 33.2500 32.0625 a. Use a 3-month simple moving average
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Marriott Corporation (A) Introduction In 1927 J.W. Marriott Sr. founded the Marriott Corporation (MC) and during the 1980s experienced a huge growth. Marriott’s main strategy in those days was developing hotel properties around the world and selling these properties to outside investors while retaining lucrative long-term management contracts. MC was a conservative company and it stressed the themes of careful attention on the details‚ the organization and its employees. Quality was the one of the
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Sharon Wilson English 101 Dr. Lise Esch 07 February 2014 The Beauty of Marriage Arranged marriages are consensual unions of two people that are agreed upon by other family members. These marriages are the beginning of a lifetime of togetherness not just between the bride and groom but between their families. These marriages are healthy unions that show commitment and growing love. Serena Nanda an American cultural anthropologist explored the cultural influences surrounding the process of arranged
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Harvard Business School 9-289-047 Rev. April 1‚ 1998 Marriott Corporation: The Cost of Capital (Abridged) In April 1988‚ Dan Cohrs‚ vice president of project finance at the Marriott Corporation‚ was preparing his annual recommendations for the hurdle rates at each of the firm’s three divisions.部门 要求报酬率 Investment projects at Marriott were selected by discounting the appropriate cash flows by the appropriate hurdle rate for each division. In 1987‚ Marriott’s sales grew by 24% and its return on equity
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QUESTION 1 Are the four components of Marriott´s financial strategy consistent with its growth objective? With regards to the overall strategy of primarily being a premier growth company‚ we analyze the 4 components as follows: 1. Manage rather than own hotel assets • Marriott developed the projects‚ established long term management contracts consisting of 3% of revenues and 20% of the profits. The assets were then sold to partners. Not owning hotels provided Marriot with greater liquidity
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Executive Summary We found the weighted average cost of capital for Marriott as a whole to be 9.68%. The divisions of Lodging‚ Contract Services and Restaurants had WACCs of 8.14%‚ 13.33%‚ and 9.63% respectively. The only variable between these divisions that remains consistent is the tax rate. Marriott has a target rate for each of the divisions’ capital structures‚ which affects their debt and equity betas. Also‚ there are stark differences between the betas in the segments‚ as well as the
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Marriott Corporation: The Cost of Capital Simrith Sidhu‚ Amy-Jane Miocevich‚ Jacques Rousset‚ Jing Tao Task One: Marriott uses the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to measure the opportunity cost for investments. WACC is calculated using the 1987 financial data provided in the Marriot Corporation: The Cost of Capital (Abridged) case study and estimators. WACC = Cost of Equity x (Equity/Debt +Equity) + Cost of Debt x (Debt/(Debt + Equity)) x (1 – Tax Rate) This method is applied for
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