Ocean Carriers Objectives • Forecast pro-forma cash flows for a project • Estimate project values using Net Present Value (NPV) • Conduct sensitivity analysis for the forecast inputs Setting • January 2001 • Customer offering attractive terms on 3-year lease for a capesize carrier • Would require purchase of new carrier since existing fleet does not fulfill customer needs • Should it be purchased? Industry Dynamics • Revenue Drivers • Outlook in the: –
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Ocean Carrier Case Study INDEX Case Background··························3 Dilemma································3 Scenarios under different tax rates and years ····························3 Alternative································5 Decision summary··························5 Appendix Ocean Carrier Case Study * Case Background Mary Linn of Ocean Carriers is evaluating the purchase of a new capesize carrier for a 3-year lease proposed by a motivated customer
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Ocean Carrier Case Study Summary In order to accept the recently submitted leasing contract proposal‚ Ocean Carriers would have to purchase a new ship. The purchasing of a new ship is a considerable investment. We have analyzed whether or not Ocean Carriers should make this investment using Free Cash Flow and Net Present Value (NPV) analysis. Given the details of the contract‚ the forecasted daily time charter rates‚ and the costs data; we have concluded that Ocean Carriers should not accept
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Ocean Carriers Inc. A Case Study By ab Introduction • Ocean Carriers Inc. owned and operated cape-size dry bulk carriers worldwide. • Major Cargo type : Iron ore. • Vessel sizes : 80000 DWT to 210000 DWT. • Cape-size carriers travel around Cape Horn rather than the Panama Canal due to size constraints. Operations Maintenance Maintaining Supplies And on board Stores Supply of Lubricants Cargo Operations Repairs Insurance Business Model • Mostly chartered
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Case Study 1 – Ocean Carriers 1. The Capital Budgeting Decision Should Ms. Linn purchase the Capesize vessel? Assume that Ocean Carriers is a U.S. firm and is subject to 35% taxation. (Please see excel sheets) From our analysis it appears that Ms. Linn should not buy the Capesize vessel. The Net Present Value on the Ocean Carrier is not a positive number‚ a clear indicator that buying the vessels is not a good idea. The tax rate of 35% makes a lot of difference in determining this NPV
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Background Ocean Carriers Inc. is a shipping company specializing in the operation of capsizes bulk dry carriers. In January 2001‚ Mary Linn‚ the vice President of Finance for Ocean Carriers was evaluating the purchase of a new capsize carrier for a three years lease proposed by a motivated customer. The leasing contract offers very attractive terms‚ but no ship in Ocean Carrier’s current fleet met the customer’s requirements. In addition‚ this proposed contract is only for three years. Therefore
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Guide for Case Analyses “Ocean Carriers” Objectives of case: The key objective is to develop an understanding of how discounted cash flow analysis can be used to make investment and corporate policy decisions. 1. Determine the value and net present value of a real assets; 2. Distinguishing between book value and market value; 3. Identifying and forecasting incremental expected cash flows‚ including initial and ongoing capital expenditures‚ investment in net working capital‚
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Ocean Carriers Case Ocean Carriers uses a 9% discount rate. 1. Do you expect daily spot rate to increase or decrease next year? Daily spot rates are expected to decrease next year because 63 new vessels are scheduled for delivery over the next year and imports of ore and coal would most likely remain stagnant over the next two years. Imports of iron ore and coal and the number of vessels available are two big factors of spot rates. 2. What factors drive average daily hire rates?
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Ocean Carriers Case Expectations for Daily Spot Hire Rates Next Year Iron ore and coal imports will most probably decrease the upcoming year With the increasing supply of vessels should result in a market surplus By creating this surplus‚ prices will be driven down‚ since we will have limited demand and suppliers competing Average daily rates‚ based on historical numbers‚ have a direct relationship with the number of shipments. What Factors Drive Average Daily Hire Rates? u
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Financial Management Read ‘Ocean Carriers’ and answer the following questions: Ocean Carriers uses a 9% discount rate. 1. Do you expect daily spot rate to increase or decrease next year? - The expected daily hire rates drives the daily spot rates higher. So we are expecting the higher daily spot rates under higher expected daily hire rates. 2. What factors drive average daily hire rates? - Demand in iron ore shipments‚ - World economy‚ strong economy in western countries will raise
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