analisis disney
Analysis of the Walt Disney Company
Report by Valanium Analysts: Juan Calderon, Sergio Delgado, Andre Oliveira, and Juan Paiz
Investment Recommendation: MARKET PERFORM
DIS – NYSE (12/3/01)
52 week range
$20.47
$15.50 - $34.80
Revenue (2001 Unaudited)
Market Capitalization
Shares Outstanding
2002E
$0.62
2003E
$0.75
Ratios
Forward P/E
Forward PEG
M/B
1.01%
10,605,954
Book Value per Share
(09/01 un audited)
EPS Forecast
FYE 09/30
EPS
$25,256 Million
$42,762 Million
2,089 Million
Dividend Yield (2000)
Avg Daily Trading Volume
December 3,2001
Firm
32.78
1.95
1.84
Average of Competitors
45.98
4.19
1.23
2004E
$0.86
2005E
$1.02
Actual Current Price
$11.98
Valuation Predictions
Current Price
Return of Equity
3.8%
Return on Assets
2.0%
Est. 5 Years EPS
16.78%
Growth Rate (2002-2006)
Industry
Entertainment – Media Conglomerate
P/E Valuation
$ 28.71
PEG Valuation
$ 43.92
M/B Valuation
$ 14.02
EBO (Abnormal Earnings) Valuation $ 5.86
DCF Valuation
$ 17.87
Performance of DIS
Trailing
Return on Disney
Return on S&P 500
Return on Competitors
DIS
•
•
•
•
•
$ 20.47
6 mo
-54%
-17%
-52%
12 mo 24 mo
-29% -14%
-13% - 09%
-14% -24%
S&P 500
Slow economy, lower advertising expense and decrease in tourism given September 11 attacks are affecting the company performance and will continue to do it trough 2002.
Competitors have stronger ratings and thus are better positioned to defend their market share on advertising Our DCF valuation of 17.87 implies an overvaluation of the company. The P/E valuation implies it is slightly undervalued. We believe the company is fairly valued unless the economy and Disney results deteriorate. The company has showed strength in its cable operations, if investments in ABC produce better programming for next year we could see an upside for the stock at the end of 2002, beginning of 2003
Content creation as well as the
Report by Valanium Analysts: Juan Calderon, Sergio Delgado, Andre Oliveira, and Juan Paiz
Investment Recommendation: MARKET PERFORM
DIS – NYSE (12/3/01)
52 week range
$20.47
$15.50 - $34.80
Revenue (2001 Unaudited)
Market Capitalization
Shares Outstanding
2002E
$0.62
2003E
$0.75
Ratios
Forward P/E
Forward PEG
M/B
1.01%
10,605,954
Book Value per Share
(09/01 un audited)
EPS Forecast
FYE 09/30
EPS
$25,256 Million
$42,762 Million
2,089 Million
Dividend Yield (2000)
Avg Daily Trading Volume
December 3,2001
Firm
32.78
1.95
1.84
Average of Competitors
45.98
4.19
1.23
2004E
$0.86
2005E
$1.02
Actual Current Price
$11.98
Valuation Predictions
Current Price
Return of Equity
3.8%
Return on Assets
2.0%
Est. 5 Years EPS
16.78%
Growth Rate (2002-2006)
Industry
Entertainment – Media Conglomerate
P/E Valuation
$ 28.71
PEG Valuation
$ 43.92
M/B Valuation
$ 14.02
EBO (Abnormal Earnings) Valuation $ 5.86
DCF Valuation
$ 17.87
Performance of DIS
Trailing
Return on Disney
Return on S&P 500
Return on Competitors
DIS
•
•
•
•
•
$ 20.47
6 mo
-54%
-17%
-52%
12 mo 24 mo
-29% -14%
-13% - 09%
-14% -24%
S&P 500
Slow economy, lower advertising expense and decrease in tourism given September 11 attacks are affecting the company performance and will continue to do it trough 2002.
Competitors have stronger ratings and thus are better positioned to defend their market share on advertising Our DCF valuation of 17.87 implies an overvaluation of the company. The P/E valuation implies it is slightly undervalued. We believe the company is fairly valued unless the economy and Disney results deteriorate. The company has showed strength in its cable operations, if investments in ABC produce better programming for next year we could see an upside for the stock at the end of 2002, beginning of 2003
Content creation as well as the