CHORIZO
What Is Certain
Is there really anything in this world that's certain besides death and taxes? Probably not. While I can believe some things will happen or occur with more certainty than others, if someone were to ask me 'Are you 100% certain?' I would have to tell them no. Managers, unfortunately, are in the same position. Equally unfortunate is when a boss is breathing down your neck for an answer and wants 'certainty' that the results will be what he or she is expecting. Welcome to the lovely world of managers and risk assessment.
Weighing Risk
When we talk about certainty we are really talking about weighing risk: looking at the situation at hand, defining all the variables and issues that are present in that situation and weighing the risk against the uncertainty of the outcome.
That is not an easy position for anyone to be in, but the more you are in it, and the more you go through it, the better you get at understanding it.
For example, let us say that your boss comes to you and says 'Jenkins, we need to build a new plant and we need it in the best place possible. Research the markets and make sure you put the plant in the right place.'
Wow, Jenkins' boss sure threw a tough one at him. Now, it is apparent Mr. Jenkins is going to have some uncertainty about exactly where this plant should go, and he obviously does not want to make a mistake. Certainty, risk and uncertainty are thus going to impact his decision-making process (along with that fact that his boss is breathing down his neck for the right decision).
Several Perspectives
Really, Mr. Jenkins can look at this from a few different perspectives:
Is he making a decision based on complete uncertainty? Does he have no idea what he's looking for or what to look out for? Is he making a decision based purely on weighing the risks involved? In other words, does he have a fairly good handle on the issue but is trying to understand all the risks that could occur? Is he
Is there really anything in this world that's certain besides death and taxes? Probably not. While I can believe some things will happen or occur with more certainty than others, if someone were to ask me 'Are you 100% certain?' I would have to tell them no. Managers, unfortunately, are in the same position. Equally unfortunate is when a boss is breathing down your neck for an answer and wants 'certainty' that the results will be what he or she is expecting. Welcome to the lovely world of managers and risk assessment.
Weighing Risk
When we talk about certainty we are really talking about weighing risk: looking at the situation at hand, defining all the variables and issues that are present in that situation and weighing the risk against the uncertainty of the outcome.
That is not an easy position for anyone to be in, but the more you are in it, and the more you go through it, the better you get at understanding it.
For example, let us say that your boss comes to you and says 'Jenkins, we need to build a new plant and we need it in the best place possible. Research the markets and make sure you put the plant in the right place.'
Wow, Jenkins' boss sure threw a tough one at him. Now, it is apparent Mr. Jenkins is going to have some uncertainty about exactly where this plant should go, and he obviously does not want to make a mistake. Certainty, risk and uncertainty are thus going to impact his decision-making process (along with that fact that his boss is breathing down his neck for the right decision).
Several Perspectives
Really, Mr. Jenkins can look at this from a few different perspectives:
Is he making a decision based on complete uncertainty? Does he have no idea what he's looking for or what to look out for? Is he making a decision based purely on weighing the risks involved? In other words, does he have a fairly good handle on the issue but is trying to understand all the risks that could occur? Is he