Theory – a set of propositions and concepts that seeks to explain phenomena by specifying the relationships among the concepts; to predict phenomena. The purpose of theory is that it helps guide us toward and understand of which various explanations are necessary and sufficient explanations for events. Hypotheses –statements positing a particular relationship among two or more variables.
Levels of Analysis, first used by Waltz and later expanded by Singer, help us orient our questions and suggest the appropriate type of evidence to explore. All scholars acknowledge the utility of these levels, but they differ on how many levels are useful in explaining events. “Good theory should be able to explain phenomena at a particular level of analysis; better theory should also offer explanations across different levels of analysis.”
1. Individual level – personality, perceptions, choices, and activities of individual decision makers
2. State level – domestic factors are the focus, i.e. characteristics of the state: types of governments and economic systems, interest groups within the country, national interest
3. International system level – explanation rests with the anarchic characteristics of the international system or with international and regional organizations’ strengths and weaknesses
Realism
Product of long historical and philosophical tradition; Thucydides, Hobbes,
Individuals are fearful, selfish, and power seeking; organized in states
States act in unitary ways in pursuit of national interest, defined in terms of power
Power: having resources necessary to fight and win wars (“physically coerce or harm other states”)
International system = anarchy (no authoritative hierarchy)
States can only rely on themselves. Must manage insecurity by balancing power of other states and also relying on deterrence
Four essential assumptions are found in Thucydide’s History of the Peloponnesian War
1. State