Econ 125 Research Paper
Hung Truong
Professor Tayman
Econ 125, research paper
As a foreigner coming to the United States to pursue education, I found the idea of Social Security System very fascinating. The US government gives its citizens a mean to guarantee their retirement. Indeed, empirical evidences suggest that Social Security is one of America’s most successful programs. It has helped millions of Americans avoid poverty after retirement.
Just like any system/machine working constantly for a long period, the Social Security system has long been in problem of solvency and in need for a maintenance/reform. However, this particular type of system/machine is unique in term of it never goes broke but rather being in serious trouble, as discussed in Bergman’s article …show more content…
My prediction is that the NIM will follow high projection alternative in the long run but low projection alternative in the next decade (which expected to be 788,165 in 2030 but then quickly increase to 2,074,282 or even higher in 2060). I consider historical evidence and current world issues in order to establish this outcome. History has proved that the push and pull factors play a key role in immigration trend of the US. People from around the world have been pushed away from their homeland because of reasons such as war, terrorism, violence; natural disasters and economic disadvantages. In the context of globalization, America is one of the first destinations many consider. However, the recent rising tension of terrorism in the Middle East has led to the migration crisis in Europe and created a serious issue not only for Europe but also for many neighbor continents. With a history of being the main target of terrorism, president Trump has issued a policy that bars people from 11 Muslim countries coming to the US. Although this policy hurts many people, there is no doubt that it is a necessary act to ultimately narrow the probability of terrorist attack. Moreover, he also puts restrictions on illegal immigrants and about to build a wall (hopefully a metaphor) at US-Mexican border. These policies will decrease NIM in the next decade and once its effectiveness take place, I believe NIM will eventually grow at high rate. As for fertility rate, I believe it will remain low and weakly decreasing. As a result, I think the middle to low alternative is most likely to occur, because increase in NIM will compensate for weak decrease in fertility but not enough to bring it up to middle to high
Professor Tayman
Econ 125, research paper
As a foreigner coming to the United States to pursue education, I found the idea of Social Security System very fascinating. The US government gives its citizens a mean to guarantee their retirement. Indeed, empirical evidences suggest that Social Security is one of America’s most successful programs. It has helped millions of Americans avoid poverty after retirement.
Just like any system/machine working constantly for a long period, the Social Security system has long been in problem of solvency and in need for a maintenance/reform. However, this particular type of system/machine is unique in term of it never goes broke but rather being in serious trouble, as discussed in Bergman’s article …show more content…
My prediction is that the NIM will follow high projection alternative in the long run but low projection alternative in the next decade (which expected to be 788,165 in 2030 but then quickly increase to 2,074,282 or even higher in 2060). I consider historical evidence and current world issues in order to establish this outcome. History has proved that the push and pull factors play a key role in immigration trend of the US. People from around the world have been pushed away from their homeland because of reasons such as war, terrorism, violence; natural disasters and economic disadvantages. In the context of globalization, America is one of the first destinations many consider. However, the recent rising tension of terrorism in the Middle East has led to the migration crisis in Europe and created a serious issue not only for Europe but also for many neighbor continents. With a history of being the main target of terrorism, president Trump has issued a policy that bars people from 11 Muslim countries coming to the US. Although this policy hurts many people, there is no doubt that it is a necessary act to ultimately narrow the probability of terrorist attack. Moreover, he also puts restrictions on illegal immigrants and about to build a wall (hopefully a metaphor) at US-Mexican border. These policies will decrease NIM in the next decade and once its effectiveness take place, I believe NIM will eventually grow at high rate. As for fertility rate, I believe it will remain low and weakly decreasing. As a result, I think the middle to low alternative is most likely to occur, because increase in NIM will compensate for weak decrease in fertility but not enough to bring it up to middle to high