Effects Of Atropia
The second order effects if conflict continues. The infrastructure would decline and an increase in economic hardship. The third order effects, Atropia is of interest because of their strategic location and resourcing. Geographically, Atropia connects Europe to Asia. This is a key position along this main route for westward export. Atropia has been in the middle of an ethno-political conflict for centuries with bordering countries. Political instability and the growth of organized crime would also continue to increase. Failure to resolve these conflicts will keep the region from creating a stable, peaceful environment.
The second order effects, with mission success. Atropia can reestablish its government and restores positive relations with
bordering countries. The third order effects, with mission success. If Atropia heals the relations with bordering countries, Asia and Europe will increase trade. With trade increasing, Atropia’s economic hardship will slowly repair increasing the population’s moral.
Short Term Assessment
With mission success, small elements of SAPA will attack with VBIEDs, IEDs, and small arms. SAPA will target friendly forces and the Atropian government. They will continue to recruit within the area of interest. The 13th DTG will retreat into Ariana. The 13th DTG will reorganize their inventory and correct their deficiencies. The 13th DTG will likely start planning for a long-term attack. The 13th DTG and SAPA may coordinate more efficiently.
Long Term Assessment
Successful SAPA recruitment will increase more attacks against the friendly forces and Atropian government. SAPA may result in receiving support likeminded threat organizations. The Atropian government will enter a repeat conflict. The 13th DTG will use that opportunity to organize a new attack. The 13th DTG will learn from the previous encounter. There is an increased possibility the 13th DTG will have anti-tank weapons. With the extra time, the 13th DTG will likely have a well-planned attack.
The second order effects, with mission success. Atropia can reestablish its government and restores positive relations with
bordering countries. The third order effects, with mission success. If Atropia heals the relations with bordering countries, Asia and Europe will increase trade. With trade increasing, Atropia’s economic hardship will slowly repair increasing the population’s moral.
Short Term Assessment
With mission success, small elements of SAPA will attack with VBIEDs, IEDs, and small arms. SAPA will target friendly forces and the Atropian government. They will continue to recruit within the area of interest. The 13th DTG will retreat into Ariana. The 13th DTG will reorganize their inventory and correct their deficiencies. The 13th DTG will likely start planning for a long-term attack. The 13th DTG and SAPA may coordinate more efficiently.
Long Term Assessment
Successful SAPA recruitment will increase more attacks against the friendly forces and Atropian government. SAPA may result in receiving support likeminded threat organizations. The Atropian government will enter a repeat conflict. The 13th DTG will use that opportunity to organize a new attack. The 13th DTG will learn from the previous encounter. There is an increased possibility the 13th DTG will have anti-tank weapons. With the extra time, the 13th DTG will likely have a well-planned attack.