Gavrilo Princip Five Factor Model

One can imagine Gavrilo Princip, a young Bosnian-Serb member of “the Black Hand” dedicated to Bosnian and Serbian independence from the rule of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, couldn’t believe his luck when the richly appointed Graf & Stift Double Phaeton automobile carrying Archduke Franz Ferdinand, nephew of the Emperor Franz Joseph, and his wife turned onto the street directly in front of him. Earlier that morning, the Archduke narrowly survived an assassination attempt by other members of the Black Hand in the form of a hurled explosive device. Princip approached and fired two shots with an FN model 1910 .380 cal pistol, fatally wounding both Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophia. This assassination is widely cited as the event that sparked the outbreak of World War I. However, to attribute the most devastating war in human history at that point to a singular event is a far greater folly of logic than blaming the loss of a major league baseball World Series that stretched over seven games to a single play. In fact, the result of the series was decided by the combination of dozens of individual decisions, the performance of each team organizationally, biases of coaches and key players, and even random chance. Scale this concept up to
Under model one, nation-states or their leaders are generally considered as “unitary actors,” that can be expected act in a rational manner in pursuit of specific objectives. Using model one, an analysis of the actions of major European powers in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries would likely conclude, as Hans Morganthou did, that said powers believed maintaining the balance of power was in their interest. Fear of the emergence of a significant asymmetry in power that could upset the balance is therefore seen a driving force behind the policies of European powers. The alliance system is evidence of this type of